Mystics & Statistics

Speaking of Disputed Elections (Belarus – week 12)

Nothing really new to report. Same-old-same-old. Tens of thousands of protestors this weekend, a couple of hundred protestors arrested, and the situation continues as before. It does not appear that either side is making much progress. It is not ramping up to push Lukashenko from power, and it is not dying down. On the other hand, the protest estimates for this weekend seems to be around 20,000 vice the hundred thousand they had on some weekends.

I have still not seen any analysis as to whether extended protests result in a higher probability of replacing the existing government. I guess this is something I could do if I wanted to stop work on my books for the next six months. 

Anyhow, this protest has now gone on for three months, which is about as long as the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine went (2013-2014).

 

P.S. On the morning of 13 October Svetlana Tikhanovksaya, the main opposition leader, issued out a statement:

“The regime has 13 days to fulfill three prerequisites:

  1. Lukashenko must announce his resignation.

  2. Street violence must stop completely.

  3. All political prisoners must be released.

If our demands are not met by October 25, the whole country will peacefully take to the streets with the People’s Ultimatum. And on October 26, a national strike of all enterprises will begin, all roads will be blocked, sales in state stores will collapse.”

P. P.S. The picture of the detained protestor is from last month, I just happen to like it (“Beauty and the Beast”). She was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews

Losses in latest Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Below is an article on the counts of losses from Nagorno-Karabakh. It is based upon viewing of drone footage, etc. by individuals some distance from the conflict. The numbers should be viewed with considerable caution. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2020/09/the-fight-for-nagorno-karabakh.html

They state: “This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is undoubtedly higher than recorded here.” 

 

Anyhow, their count is:

………………………….Artsakh/Armenia……..Azerbaijan
Tanks……………………………..177………….26

AFVs……………………………….34………….11

IFVs………………………………..42………….24

Aircraft and Helicopters…………..0…………..10

Towed Artillery…………………..138

SP Artillery………………………..17

MLRS……………………………..72

Trucks, vehicles and jeeps……408………….21

 

Waffen-SS Tiger Crews At Kursk

Just wanted to make you aware of a book that has just been released written by Col. French L. Maclean (USA, ret.) called “Waffen-SS Tiger Crews at Kursk” (Schiffer Military, Atlen, PA, 2020). I am graciously listed in his acknowledgements, although my involvement was minimal (a few emails exchanged and one long pleasant meeting for coffee). It may be a while before I actually sit down and go through it, as I am busy finishing up a book about the things that are flying over the Tigers.

When we first set the blog up we decided not to do book reviews on this blog. I will probably hold to that. There are a number of reasons for that: 1) I know of lot of these people, 2) it is hard to review a book if you are not an expert in the area (and there are very few areas I am expert in), 3) it is hard not to find errors in books on subjects that  you are an expert (and sometimes it is as often as much as one error a page), 4) if you do know the subject, then it ends up taking a lot of time (man-weeks) as you check and cross-check each point, 5) I tend to be hyper-critical, and 6) I have been known to get somewhat sarcastic and caustic when it is late at night and after a few drinks….so….I don’t review books.

 

Tank losses in Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflict

In case you have been distracted by all the U.S. news lately, there has been a significant conflict for the last month between Azerbaijan-Armenia over Nogorno-Karabakh that resulted in dozens of tanks lost, many due to drones and loitering munitions. This is conventional war. We have not done any systematic analysis of this, so I am hesitant to make any comments on it, but it is a significant event, in that a number of Armenian tanks were taken out by Azerbaijani drones. I have found the twitter accounts @RALee85 and @Rebel44CZ and @oryxspioenkop to be worth following. They tend to include a lot of the videos that have been released from this fight.

This is an article on the subject that came out this week:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/attack-drones-dominating-tanks-armenia-085624016.html

A few highlights:
.

  1. Armenia says it has lost around 900 servicemen.
  2. Actual casualties are probably higher.
  3. Open source analysis by Forbes magazine has tracked the destruction by drones of around 200 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, plus 300 soft-skinned military vehicles.
  4. It is kind of one-sided, as Armenia does not have such a collection of drones (it helps to have oil).

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 30

Weekly update number 30 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 4,326 new cases. Last week there were 4,012 new cases. So it continues to rise. So last month we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is in trouble with 22K new cases reported for yesterday. It is an amazing collapse of control from what they had. It has gotten bad across Europe, in the UK (23K cases yesterday), France (35K), Spain (18K), Germany (13K) and Russia (16K)  The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 73K new cases yesterday. This is in contrast to places like China (47 cases yesterday), Japan (643), South Korea (103), Vietnam (3), Australia (14) and New Zealand (2). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 seventeen weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 12:24 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….16,498……16,973..…644
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……..4,437……..4,630……154
Alexandria VA……………160,530………4,144….…4,269….….74
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….22,849……23,648……605
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….75……..….75……….7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………..157……….159………..8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….….7,634….…7,876…….130
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……13,735……14,235……223
Manassas…………………..41,641…..…..2,018……..2,045….…27
Manassas Park………….…17,307..….……634………..648………8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….2,287……..2,373….…21
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…….….576……….588………6
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….24,664……25,562…..870
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….31,695……32,648…..859
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..131,403….135,729…3,636

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.68%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. The population known to have been infected is 2.53% or one confirmed case for every 40 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 3,040 cases (2,945 last week) and 35 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,764 cases (1,701 last week) and 27 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,597 confirmed cases (1,536 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,585 confirmed cases (1,501 last week) and 24 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They had been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last few weeks, so the number of new cases has declined and stayed down. So far, they have been doing a decent job at containing this.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 2,788 cases this week (2,565 last week) and 5 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million)  is still running around 1,000 cases a day (1,123 yesterday). This has been the case for months. It does not seem to want to establish a steady downward trend, but at least it is not going up (maybe).

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 370 cases (341 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow.

Continued Protests in Belarus – week 11

Well, week 11 in Belarus and no clear resolution. It looks like this could drag on for a while. They did put up tens of thousands (maybe 100,000) protestors on Sunday and did start strikes on Monday. It does not appear that the strikes are universal. To quote from a couple of accounts:

BBC News (bolding is mine):

“Workers at some state-run plants downed tools and chanted slogans outside the gates.”

“The full scale of the protests on Monday is not yet clear, partly because of the authorities’ media restrictions.”

“A source in Minsk…told the BBC that the strike was affecting some major state enterprises…but they had not been brought to a standstill.”

See https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54684753

ABC News (bolding is mine):

“But on Monday, while some workers did strike and a sizable protest took place in the capital of Minsk, it did not appear that strikers had been joined by significant numbers of workers at the massive state plants that are critical to Belarus economy.”

See: https://abcnews.go.com/International/belarus-opposition-calls-national-strike-key-test-protest/story?id=73842209

 

P.S. On the morning of 13 October Svetlana Tikhanovksaya, the main opposition leader, issued out a statement:

“The regime has 13 days to fulfill three prerequisites:

  1. Lukashenko must announce his resignation.

  2. Street violence must stop completely.

  3. All political prisoners must be released.

If our demands are not met by October 25, the whole country will peacefully take to the streets with the People’s Ultimatum. And on October 26, a national strike of all enterprises will begin, all roads will be blocked, sales in state stores will collapse.”

P. P.S. The picture of the detained protestor is from last month, I just happen to like it (“Beauty and the Beast”). She was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews

Continued Protests in Belarus – week 10

This coming week may get dramatic. On the morning of 13 October Svetlana Tikhanovksaya, the main opposition leader, issued out a statement:

“The regime has 13 days to fulfill three prerequisites:

  1. Lukashenko must announce his resignation.

  2. Street violence must stop completely.

  3. All political prisoners must be released.

If our demands are not met by October 25, the whole country will peacefully take to the streets with the People’s Ultimatum. And on October 26, a national strike of all enterprises will begin, all roads will be blocked, sales in state stores will collapse.”

 

So, we shall see what develops over the next few days.

 

 

P.S. The picture of the detained protestor is from last month, I just happen to like it (“Beauty and the Beast”). She was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 29

Weekly update number 29 on the coronavirus in the DC area, meaning I have been doing this post for over half a year. As it is “close to home,” I sort of feel a need to keep doing it. Not sure how many people are following this, but I kind of want to know.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 4,012 new cases. Last week there were 3,784 new cases. So back on the rise again. So we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 11K new cases for the day yesterday. They are now reporting twice as many cases per day as they were reporting with the initial infection they were dealing with in late March. It is an amazing collapse of control from what they had:

Still, as bad as it is in Italy, it is not as bad as the UK (21K cases yesterday), France (21K) or Spain (14K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 60K new cases yesterday.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 sixteen weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 12:24 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….16,068….16,498………642
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……..4,228……4,437………152
Alexandria VA……………160,530……..4,045…….4,144……….75
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……22,185…..22,849……..604
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…………75………..75……..…7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….144………157………..8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….…7,303……7,634……..130
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……13,281….13,735……..222
Manassas…………………..41,641…..….1,998……2,018………27
Manassas Park………….…17,307..….……627….…..634……….8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….2,174……2,287………20
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…….….568………576………..6
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….23,817….24,664……862
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….30,878….31,695……848
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..127,391..131,403….3,611

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.75%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. The population known to have been infected is 2.45% or one confirmed case for every 41 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,945 cases (2,864 last week) and 35 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,701 cases (1,640 last week) and 26 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,536 confirmed cases (1,467 last week) and 32 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,501 confirmed cases (1,443 last week) and 23 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They had been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last weeks, so the number of new cases has declined and stayed down. So far, they have been doing a decent job at containing this.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 2,565 cases this week (2,381 last week) and 5 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million)  is still running around 1,000 cases a day (910 yesterday). This has been the case for months. It does not seem to want to establish a steady downward trend, but at least it is not going up.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 341 cases (309 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow.

TDI and the TNDM

The Dupuy Institute does occasionally make use of a combat model developed by Trevor Dupuy called the Tactical Numerical Deterministic Model (TNDM). That model is a development of his older model the Quantified Judgment Model (QJM). 
 
There is an impression, because the QJM is widely known, that the TNDM is heavily involved in our work. In fact, over 90% of our work has not involved the TNDM. Here a list of major projects/publications that we done since 1993.
 
Based upon TNDM:
Artillery Suppression Study – study never completed (1993-1995)
Air Model Historical Data feasibility study (1995)
Support contract for South African TNDM (1996?)
International TNDM Newsletter (1996-1998, 2009-2010)
TNDM sale to Finland (2002?)
FCS Study – 2 studies (2006)
TNDM sale to Singapore (2009)
Small-Unit Engagement Database (2011)
 
Addressed the TNDM:
Bosnia Casualty Estimate (1995) – used the TNDM to evaluate one possible scenario
Casualty Estimation Methodologies Study (2005) – was two of the six methodologies tested
Data for Wargames training course (2016)
War by Numbers (2017) – addressed in two chapters out of 20
 
Did not use the TNDM: 
Kursk Data Base (1993-1996)
Landmine Study for JCS (1996)
Combat Mortality Study (1998)
Record Keeping Survey (1998-2000)
Capture Rate Studies – 3 studies (1998-2001)
Other Landmine Studies – 6 studies (2000-2001)
Lighter Weight Armor Study (2001)
Urban Warfare – 3 studies (2002-2004)
Base Realignment studies for PA – 3 studies (2003-2005)
Chinese Doctrine Study (2003)
Situational Awareness Study (2004)
Iraq Casualty Estimate (2004-2005)
The use of chemical warfare in WWI – feasibility study (2005?)
Battle of Britain Data Base (2005)
1969 Sino-Soviet Conflict (2006)
MISS – Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets (2006-2009)
Insurgency Studies – 11 studies/reports (2007-2009)
America’s Modern Wars (2015)
Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (2015)
The Battle of Prokhorovka (2019)
Aces at Kursk (2021)
More War by Numbers (2022?)
 
 
Our bread and butter was all the studies that “did not use the TNDM.” Basically the capture rate studies, the urban warfare studies and the insurgencies studies kept us steadily funded for year after year. We would have not been able to maintain TDI on the TNDM. We had one contract in excess of $100K in 1994-95 (the Artillery Suppression study) and our next TNDM related contract that was over $100K was in 2005.