Mystics & Statistics

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. Got a late start on it today as I was absorbed in creating tables for a book I am working on.

The number of reported cases in the DC area has been in steady decline for over a month, while many other areas of the United States it has been growing. The last couple of months had been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,500 new cases a week to less than 3,000 cases a week. This week it was 3,062 new cases, which is slightly lower than last week’s count of 3,104 new cases. These figures are higher then the previous week’s count of 2,681 and the low of 2,406 three weeks ago. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 190 cases yesterday. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 2:35:51 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……..11,026….11,529…….580
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……….2,677……2,750……135
Alexandria VA……………160,530……….2,486..….2,582….….56
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795….….14,653….14,994……502
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…..………54….……54…….…6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…….…….74………..73….……7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..…..…4,519……4,695..…..106
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…..…7,947……8,240.……164
Manassas…………………..41,641………1,497……1,531..……..20
Manassas Park………….…17,307…….….463………477..………7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………1,085….…1,140…….…6
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..…288…..….300…….…0
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….15,986…..16,593..….776
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308….…20,099…..20,958..….725
Total……….…….………..5,365,425.….…82,854…..85,916….3,090

This is a 4% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.60%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.60% or one confirmed case for every 62 people.

The Washington DC statistical area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia.

Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 638 confirmed cases (583 last week) and 10 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 367 confirmed cases (318 last week) and 8 deaths. Montgomery County, VA has 220 cases this week (201 last week) and 3 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen when you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 163 cases (124 last week) and 1 death. The number of cases in all these areas is growing at a worrisome rate.

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. The number of reported cases in the DC area has been in steady decline for over a month, while many other areas of the United States it has been growing. The last month has been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,500 new cases a week the previous month to less than 3,000 cases a week. This week is was 3,104 new cases, which is an increase over last week’s count of 2,681 and the low of 2,406 two weeks ago. So, teh number of cases of coronavirus is no increasing in this area. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 114 cases yesterday. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 12:35:18 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….10,569…..11,026……….571
Arlington, VA……………..237,521….…..2,558……2,677………134
Alexandria VA……………160,530………2,408…….2,486……….57
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795….…14,253….14,653………502
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…..…..….54……….54…………7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.….………72…….…74…………7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..……..4,282……4,519…..…..98
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……..7,664……7,947………160
Manassas…………………..41,641…..….1,464……1.497………..19
Manassas Park………….…17,307………..449……….463…………6
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………1,029…….1,085…………6
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….….263………288…………0
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……15,400……15,986…….763
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308……19,285……20,099…….717
Total……….…….………..5,365,425.……79,750……82,854…..3,047

This is a 4% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.68%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.54% or one confirmed case for every 65 people.

The Washington DC statistical area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia.

Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 583 confirmed cases (498 last week) and 10 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 318 confirmed cases (241 last week) and 7 deaths. Montgomery County, VA is 201 cases this week (170 last week) and 3 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen if you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 124 cases (82 last week) and 1 death. The number of cases in all these areas is growing at a worrisome rate.

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. The number of reported cases in the DC area has been in steady decline for over a month, while many other areas of the United States it has been growing. The last four weeks have been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,500 new cases a week the previous month to less than 3,000 cases a week. This week is was 2,681 new cases, which is an increase over last week’s count of 2,406. This decline in cases occurred during the protests. We have just gotten through the 4th of July weekend. Still, this is not great. For example, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 137 cases yesterday. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 10:33:48 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….10,365……10,569……..561
Arlington, VA……………..237,521….…..2,484……..2,558…….132
Alexandria VA……………160,530……….2,325……..2,408………57
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795….…13,864.……14,253…….495
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…..…..…52………….54…….…8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.….……..70………….72…….….7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..…….4,047……….4,282…..…98
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….7,331……….7,664…….151
Manassas…………………..41,641…..…1,414……….1,464………18
Manassas Park………….…17,307……….430………….449…….…6
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..…990…..….1,029…….…5
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….…249………….263…….…0
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……14,803…….15,400…….752
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308……18,645…….19,285……699
Total……….…….………..5,365,425.……77,069……79,750…..2,989

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.75%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.49% or one confirmed case for every 67 people.

The Washington DC statistical area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia.

Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 498 confirmed cases (407 last week) and 10 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 241 confirmed cases (216 last week) and 7 deaths. Montgomery County, VA is 170 cases this week (147 last week) and 3 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen if you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 82 cases (59 last week) and 1 death. The number of cases in all these areas is growing at a worrisome rate.

The virus has been going on for a while, and a number of countries have been hard hit but are now successful in containing it, some contained it early on and were never hard hit, some have been less successful, and some really have not contained the virus. Let us look at some mortality rates from a few selected countries:

UK (44K/67M): 0.07% or 1 out of every 1,523 people

Spain (28K/47M): 0.06%

Italy (35K/60M): 0.06%

France (30K/67M): 0.04%

USA (129K/330M): 0.04% or 1 out of every 2,558 people

Canada (8.7K/38M): 0.02%

Germany (9K/83M): 0.01%
Japan (1K/136M): 0.0007%

.

These include seven of the ten richest countries in the world.

A few others of note:

Belgium (9.8K/11.5M): 0.08% or 1 out of every 1,173 people
Holland (6.1K/17.5M): 0.03%

.

Australia (0.1K/26 M): 0.0004%
New Zealand (0.02K/5M): 0.0004%

.

Sweden (5.4K/10.3M): 0.05% or 1 out of every 1,907 people
Denmark (0.6K/5.8M): 0.01%
Norway (0.25K/5.4M): 0.005%
Finland (0.3K/5.5 M): 0.005%

 

This is all based upon Johns Hopkins CSSE reports. Deaths are rounded to the nearest thousand. Population data is from estimates for either late 2019 or mid-2020 (courtesy of Wikipedia) and rounded to the nearest million. For some countries, there are questions about the accuracy of their statistics, although I don’t think the data from any of these countries are in much doubt. All of these countries are wealthy, developed economies with democratic governance and a free press. I do think there is a difference of interpretation between cause of deaths between say Germany and Belgium, which may be part of the difference between their rates. This will need to be addressed by a study on “excess mortality.”

The mortality rates of most of these countries are not going to increase by much more because they have mostly brought the virus under control. This is not the case for Sweden and the United States.

The graph of the daily cases for the U.S. is:

In contrast, Italy is:

 

Another weekly update of this coronavirus post. The last four weeks have been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,500 new cases a week to near 5,400 new cases four weeks ago to near 3,200 cases three weeks ago and down near 2,600 new cases two weeks ago. Over this last week there were 2,406 new cases. This decline occurred during the protests. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 7:33:53 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……10,128……10,365……..553
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……..2,438……..2,484…….132
Alexandria VA……………160,530………2.258….…2,325………57
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….13,588…..13,864.……488
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…..….….57…….…52…………8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…………69………..70…….….7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850.……..3,683…….4,047…..…87
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011.…… .7,038…….7,331…….144
Manassas…………………..41,641….….1,370…….1,414……..18
Manassas Park………….…17,307…….….416…….…430………6
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960…………949………990………5
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..…235………249………0
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….14,283…..14,803……739
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308……18,151..…18,645……686
Total……….…….………..5,365,425.……74,663…..77,069…2,930

The number of new cases dropped to 5,384 four weeks ago down to 3,216 new cases three weeks ago, down to 2,617 new cases two weeks ago and was 2,406 new cases this last week (measured from my previous Wednesday posting to this Wednesday posting). It was 9,301 new cases seven weeks ago, 8,591 new cases six weeks ago, 7,094 new cases five weeks ago and 5,384 new cases four weeks ago. Keep in mind a number of states are currently running 4,000 to 6,000 new cases a day! This is a 3% increase since last week.

The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.80%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.44% or one confirmed case for every 70 people. It may be that over 2% of the area has been infected.

The Washington DC statistical area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia.

Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 407 confirmed cases (359 last week) and 9 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 216 confirmed cases (182 last week) and 4 deaths. Montgomery County, VA is 147 cases this week (116 last week) and 2 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen if you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 59 cases (31 last week) and 1 death.

One more weekly update of this coronavirus post. The last four weeks have been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,500 new cases a week to around 7,000 new cases four weeks ago to near 5,000 cases three weeks ago and down near 3,000 new cases two weeks ago., Over this last week there were 2,617 new cases. So far, it does not look like a real negative impact from all the protests. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 10:33:35 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….9,847……10,128……..541
Arlington, VA……………..237,521…….2,372….….2,438……..126
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….2,175..……2.258…….…50
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……13,153…..13,588………450
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…………58…….….57…….….7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.….……..68…………69…….….7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850.…….3,458….…3,683………84
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011.…… 6,654…….7,038…..…136
Manassas…………………..41,641….….1,320……1,370……….16
Manassas Park………….…17,307……….390……….416…………5
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………..906….…..949…………5
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……….215…..….235…………0
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……13,819…..14,283…….728
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308…..17,611…..18,151..……662
Total……….…….………..5,365,425.…..72,046..…74,663……2,817

The number of new cases the previous week dropped to 5,384 two weeks, down to 3,216 new cases last week and 2,617 new cases this week. It was 9,301 new cases five weeks ago, 8,591 new cases four weeks ago, 7,094 new cases three weeks ago and 5,384 new cases two weeks ago. We shall see if it holds. This is a 4% increase since last week. The number of deaths increased this last week by less than a hundred.

The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.77%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.39% or one confirmed case for every 72 people. It may be that over 2% of the area has been infected.

The Washington DC statistical area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia.

Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 359 confirmed cases (293 last week) and 8 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 182 confirmed cases (161 last week) and 3 deaths. Montgomery County, VA is 116 cases this week (97 last week) and 2 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen if you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 31 cases (25 last week) and 1 death.

Below are the case charts by day for DC, Maryland and Virginia (for the entire state in the case of Maryland and Virginia). They all show a positive pattern:

Just doing my weekly update of this coronavirus post. The last three weeks have been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,000 new cases a week to around 7,000 new cases three weeks ago to near 5,000 cases two weeks ago and down near 3,000 new cases over this last week. So far, it does not look like a real negative impact from all the protests. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:33:26 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….9,474……9,847……..523
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……2,280…….2,372….….124
Alexandria VA……………160,530……2,125……..2,175..….…48
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…..12,746…..13,153…..….429
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………..56….…….58……..….7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.….…….69………..68….…….7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850.…….3,180……3,458………80
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011.…… 6,376……6,654…..…127
Manassas…………………..41,641….….1,262……1,320……….14
Manassas Park………….…17,307……….360…..….390…..…….6
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….831..……906………….5
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144………194………215….……..0
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…..13,124….13,819…..….672
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308…..16,753….17,611….…..648
Total……….…….………..5,365,425.…..68,830….72,046..….2,690

The number of new cases the previous week dropped to 5,384 and this week down to 3,216 new cases. It was 9,301 new cases four weeks ago, 8,591 new cases three weeks ago, 7,094 new cases two weeks ago and 5,384 new cases last week. We shall see if it holds. This is a 5% increase since last week. The number of deaths increased this last week by less than a hundred.

The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.73%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.34%. or one confirmed case for every 74 people. It may be that over 2% of the area has been infected.

The Washington DC statistical area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia.

Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 293 confirmed cases (260 last week) and 8 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 161 confirmed cases (142 last week) and 3 deaths. Montgomery County, VA is 97 cases this week (96 last week) and 2 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen if you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 25 cases (25 last week) and 1 death.

Below are the case charts by day for DC, Maryland and Virginia (for the entire state in the case of Maryland and Virginia). They all show a positive pattern:

Still maintain weekly updates of this coronavirus post. The last two weeks have been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,000 new cases a week to around 7,000 new cases two weeks ago to near 5,000 cases this last week. Wondering, with all the protests, if that decline will continue. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:33:09 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……9,016….…9,474………..495
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……2,142….…2,280……….121
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….2,016….…2,125……..…47
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…..11,596…..12,746……….422
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………..55…..……56………….8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574………..67………. 69……….…6
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….2,659….…3,180…………67
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….5,837…… 6,376…….…118
Manassas…………………..41,641…….1,154……1,262…..…….12
Manassas Park………….…17,307……….332….…..360………….6
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….738………831………….5
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……….172……..194…………..0
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……11,924….13,124……….672
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308……15,738….16,753………613
Total……….…….………..5,365,425……63,446….68,830…….2,592

This is real progress, as the number of new cases dropped to 5,384. It was 8,200 new cases four weeks ago, 9,301 new cases three weeks ago, 8,591 new cases two weeks ago and 7,094 new cases last week. We shall see if it holds. This is a 8% increase since last week.

The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.77%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.28%. or one confirmed case for every 78 people. It may be that over 2% of the area has been infected.

The Washington DC statistical area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia.

Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 260 confirmed cases (204 last week) and 8 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 142 confirmed cases (128 last week) and 3 deaths. Montgomery County, VA is 96 cases this week (80 last week) and 1 death. Of course, who knows what will happen if you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 25 cases (22 last week) and 1 death.