Mystics & Statistics

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week it has increased to 3,963 new cases. Last week week there were 3,672 new cases. It was 4,077 new cases two weeks ago. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 412 new cases yesterday.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 six weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 3:17:24 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……..12,443……12,959…….593
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……….2,997…….3,118……..135
Alexandria VA……………160,530……….2,872….…3,014………60
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……..16,019……16,642…….529
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772……………59….……..61……….6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…………..82…….…..92………..7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..………5,117……..5,372…….115
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..………9,139……..9,605……176
Manassas…………………..41,641……….1,620……..1,670……..23
Manassas Park………….…17,307..………..505…….….518……….7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….1,300………1,424………9
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…….380………..414……….4
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….17,976……18,641……806
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….23,156……24,098..…764
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…….93,665……97,628…3,234

This is a 4% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.31%, which is high. The population known to have been infected is 1.82% or one confirmed case for every 55 people.

Also, of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 856 confirmed cases (791 last week) and 16 deaths and Charlottesville, VA which has 550 confirmed cases (504 last week) and 15 deaths. Montgomery County, VA has 312 cases this week (291 last week) and 3 deaths. These two areas are the home of UVA (Charlottesville) and Virginia Tech (Blacksburg), two large universities located in a more rural environment. UVA announced last week that they were delaying the movement of students into the dorms from 19 August until  8 September. On the other hand, VT and many other Virginia universities are opening up on time (late August). We shall see if there is a difference.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has 210 cases (202 last week) and 2 deaths. The number of cases in all these areas is growing at a worrisome rate. Virginia itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now.

Below are the daily graphs for the District of Columbia, Virginia and Maryland:

Still not done blogging about the coronavirus (sorry). Australia has kind of been one of the success stories, while the United States has not. Here is the daily counts of U.S. reported infections:

One will note after the initial sudden rise in cases (driven by the NE U.S.) there was a general decline and now the current explosion as the virus hits most of the rest of the country.

Australia is having a similar double peak, although neither peak is as large. Still, considering how successful Australia was at containing the virus, this is a warning of the nature of the problem that everyone faces.

Now, the is a real difference here in size. The United States has a population of 330 million, while Australia has a population of 25.64 million, less than a tenth of the U.S.. The United States has reported a total of 4,826,861 cases, which is 1.46% of the population, or one case every 68 people. Australia has reported a total of 19,863 cases, which is 0.08% of the population, or one case every 1,291 people. There are a reported 158,321 deaths for the United States, which is 0.05% of the population or one death for every 2,084 people. There are a reported 255 deaths in Australia, which is 0.001% of the population or one death for every 100,549 people. Needless to say, even though Australia is getting a second spike there is still a big difference between Australia and the U.S.

A couple of graphs from two countries, Canada and New Zealand, who are doing better than their larger neighbor.

 

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. The number of cases has finally started to decrease again, after increasing over the last month. This week there were 3,672 new cases. It was 4,077 new cases last week. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 190 cases yesterday.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 five weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:37:27 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……..11,999……12,443……587
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………2,857……..2,997……135
Alexandria VA……………160,530………2,759……..2,872….…60
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……..15,570……16,019……530
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….54………….59………5
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…………79…………..82………7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..…….4,956………5,117……113
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..….…8,724………9,139…..175
Manassas…………………..41,641……..1,586………1,620…….20
Manassas Park………….…17,307..………493…………505………7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………1,227……..1,300…..…8
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….……340………..380…..…3
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……17,305……17,976…..794
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……22,044……23,156……746
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425……89,993…….93,665…3,190

This is a 4% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.54%, which is high. The population known to have been infected is 1.75% or one confirmed case for every 57 people.

Also, of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 791 confirmed cases (724 last week) and 16 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 504 confirmed cases (443 last week) and 13 deaths. Montgomery County, VA has 291 cases this week (260 last week) and 3 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen when you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA (Charlottesville) and Virginia Tech (Blacksburg), two large universities located in a more rural environment. UVA yesterday announced they were delaying the movement of students into the dorms from 19 August until  8 September.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has 202 cases (187 last week) and 2 deaths. The number of cases in all these areas is growing at a worrisome rate. Virginia itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now.

Below are the daily graphs for the District of Columbia, Virginia and Maryland:

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. Not good news, the number of cases has increased by 4,077 new cases this last week. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 202 cases yesterday.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 four weeks ago. It has since increased. This is the highest so far.  All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 1:35:37 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……..11,529…..11,999…….584
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………2,750……2,857…….135
Alexandria VA……………160,530……….2,582……2,759………57
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795….…14,994….15,570……..519
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…..…..…54….…….54……..…6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…….…..73…………79……..…7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….…4,695..…..4,956…….109
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……..8,240.……8,724……168
Manassas…………………..41,641……..1,531….…1,586……….20
Manassas Park………….…17,307……….477..………493……..…7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..1,140.……1,227……..…7
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……….300….……340……..…2
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…..16,593……17,305……..787
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308…..20,958..…22,044…….733
Total……….…….………..5,365,425.…..85,916……89,993….3,141

This is a 5% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.49%, which is high. The population known to be infected is 1.68% or one confirmed case for every 60 people.

 

Also, of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 724 confirmed cases (638 last week) and 10 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 443 confirmed cases (367 last week) and 8 deaths. Montgomery County, VA has 260 cases this week (220 last week) and 3 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen when you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 187 cases (163 last week) and 1 death. The number of cases in all these areas is growing at a worrisome rate. Virginia itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now.

Below are the daily graphs for the District of Columbia, Virginia and Maryland:

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. Got a late start on it today as I was absorbed in creating tables for a book I am working on.

The number of reported cases in the DC area has been in steady decline for over a month, while many other areas of the United States it has been growing. The last couple of months had been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,500 new cases a week to less than 3,000 cases a week. This week it was 3,062 new cases, which is slightly lower than last week’s count of 3,104 new cases. These figures are higher then the previous week’s count of 2,681 and the low of 2,406 three weeks ago. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 190 cases yesterday. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 2:35:51 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……..11,026….11,529…….580
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……….2,677……2,750……135
Alexandria VA……………160,530……….2,486..….2,582….….56
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795….….14,653….14,994……502
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…..………54….……54…….…6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…….…….74………..73….……7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..…..…4,519……4,695..…..106
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…..…7,947……8,240.……164
Manassas…………………..41,641………1,497……1,531..……..20
Manassas Park………….…17,307…….….463………477..………7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………1,085….…1,140…….…6
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..…288…..….300…….…0
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….15,986…..16,593..….776
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308….…20,099…..20,958..….725
Total……….…….………..5,365,425.….…82,854…..85,916….3,090

This is a 4% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.60%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.60% or one confirmed case for every 62 people.

The Washington DC statistical area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia.

Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 638 confirmed cases (583 last week) and 10 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 367 confirmed cases (318 last week) and 8 deaths. Montgomery County, VA has 220 cases this week (201 last week) and 3 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen when you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 163 cases (124 last week) and 1 death. The number of cases in all these areas is growing at a worrisome rate.

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. The number of reported cases in the DC area has been in steady decline for over a month, while many other areas of the United States it has been growing. The last month has been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,500 new cases a week the previous month to less than 3,000 cases a week. This week is was 3,104 new cases, which is an increase over last week’s count of 2,681 and the low of 2,406 two weeks ago. So, teh number of cases of coronavirus is no increasing in this area. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 114 cases yesterday. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 12:35:18 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….10,569…..11,026……….571
Arlington, VA……………..237,521….…..2,558……2,677………134
Alexandria VA……………160,530………2,408…….2,486……….57
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795….…14,253….14,653………502
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…..…..….54……….54…………7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.….………72…….…74…………7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..……..4,282……4,519…..…..98
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……..7,664……7,947………160
Manassas…………………..41,641…..….1,464……1.497………..19
Manassas Park………….…17,307………..449……….463…………6
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………1,029…….1,085…………6
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….….263………288…………0
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……15,400……15,986…….763
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308……19,285……20,099…….717
Total……….…….………..5,365,425.……79,750……82,854…..3,047

This is a 4% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.68%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.54% or one confirmed case for every 65 people.

The Washington DC statistical area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia.

Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 583 confirmed cases (498 last week) and 10 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 318 confirmed cases (241 last week) and 7 deaths. Montgomery County, VA is 201 cases this week (170 last week) and 3 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen if you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 124 cases (82 last week) and 1 death. The number of cases in all these areas is growing at a worrisome rate.

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. The number of reported cases in the DC area has been in steady decline for over a month, while many other areas of the United States it has been growing. The last four weeks have been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,500 new cases a week the previous month to less than 3,000 cases a week. This week is was 2,681 new cases, which is an increase over last week’s count of 2,406. This decline in cases occurred during the protests. We have just gotten through the 4th of July weekend. Still, this is not great. For example, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 137 cases yesterday. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 10:33:48 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….10,365……10,569……..561
Arlington, VA……………..237,521….…..2,484……..2,558…….132
Alexandria VA……………160,530……….2,325……..2,408………57
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795….…13,864.……14,253…….495
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…..…..…52………….54…….…8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.….……..70………….72…….….7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..…….4,047……….4,282…..…98
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….7,331……….7,664…….151
Manassas…………………..41,641…..…1,414……….1,464………18
Manassas Park………….…17,307……….430………….449…….…6
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..…990…..….1,029…….…5
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….…249………….263…….…0
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……14,803…….15,400…….752
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308……18,645…….19,285……699
Total……….…….………..5,365,425.……77,069……79,750…..2,989

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.75%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.49% or one confirmed case for every 67 people.

The Washington DC statistical area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia.

Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 498 confirmed cases (407 last week) and 10 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 241 confirmed cases (216 last week) and 7 deaths. Montgomery County, VA is 170 cases this week (147 last week) and 3 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen if you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 82 cases (59 last week) and 1 death. The number of cases in all these areas is growing at a worrisome rate.

The virus has been going on for a while, and a number of countries have been hard hit but are now successful in containing it, some contained it early on and were never hard hit, some have been less successful, and some really have not contained the virus. Let us look at some mortality rates from a few selected countries:

UK (44K/67M): 0.07% or 1 out of every 1,523 people

Spain (28K/47M): 0.06%

Italy (35K/60M): 0.06%

France (30K/67M): 0.04%

USA (129K/330M): 0.04% or 1 out of every 2,558 people

Canada (8.7K/38M): 0.02%

Germany (9K/83M): 0.01%
Japan (1K/136M): 0.0007%

.

These include seven of the ten richest countries in the world.

A few others of note:

Belgium (9.8K/11.5M): 0.08% or 1 out of every 1,173 people
Holland (6.1K/17.5M): 0.03%

.

Australia (0.1K/26 M): 0.0004%
New Zealand (0.02K/5M): 0.0004%

.

Sweden (5.4K/10.3M): 0.05% or 1 out of every 1,907 people
Denmark (0.6K/5.8M): 0.01%
Norway (0.25K/5.4M): 0.005%
Finland (0.3K/5.5 M): 0.005%

 

This is all based upon Johns Hopkins CSSE reports. Deaths are rounded to the nearest thousand. Population data is from estimates for either late 2019 or mid-2020 (courtesy of Wikipedia) and rounded to the nearest million. For some countries, there are questions about the accuracy of their statistics, although I don’t think the data from any of these countries are in much doubt. All of these countries are wealthy, developed economies with democratic governance and a free press. I do think there is a difference of interpretation between cause of deaths between say Germany and Belgium, which may be part of the difference between their rates. This will need to be addressed by a study on “excess mortality.”

The mortality rates of most of these countries are not going to increase by much more because they have mostly brought the virus under control. This is not the case for Sweden and the United States.

The graph of the daily cases for the U.S. is:

In contrast, Italy is:

 

Another weekly update of this coronavirus post. The last four weeks have been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,500 new cases a week to near 5,400 new cases four weeks ago to near 3,200 cases three weeks ago and down near 2,600 new cases two weeks ago. Over this last week there were 2,406 new cases. This decline occurred during the protests. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 7:33:53 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……10,128……10,365……..553
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……..2,438……..2,484…….132
Alexandria VA……………160,530………2.258….…2,325………57
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….13,588…..13,864.……488
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…..….….57…….…52…………8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…………69………..70…….….7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850.……..3,683…….4,047…..…87
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011.…… .7,038…….7,331…….144
Manassas…………………..41,641….….1,370…….1,414……..18
Manassas Park………….…17,307…….….416…….…430………6
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960…………949………990………5
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..…235………249………0
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….14,283…..14,803……739
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308……18,151..…18,645……686
Total……….…….………..5,365,425.……74,663…..77,069…2,930

The number of new cases dropped to 5,384 four weeks ago down to 3,216 new cases three weeks ago, down to 2,617 new cases two weeks ago and was 2,406 new cases this last week (measured from my previous Wednesday posting to this Wednesday posting). It was 9,301 new cases seven weeks ago, 8,591 new cases six weeks ago, 7,094 new cases five weeks ago and 5,384 new cases four weeks ago. Keep in mind a number of states are currently running 4,000 to 6,000 new cases a day! This is a 3% increase since last week.

The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.80%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.44% or one confirmed case for every 70 people. It may be that over 2% of the area has been infected.

The Washington DC statistical area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia.

Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 407 confirmed cases (359 last week) and 9 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 216 confirmed cases (182 last week) and 4 deaths. Montgomery County, VA is 147 cases this week (116 last week) and 2 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen if you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 59 cases (31 last week) and 1 death.