Mystics & Statistics

Dupuy’s Verities: The Effects of Firepower in Combat

A German artillery barrage falling on Allied trenches, probably during the Second Battle of Ypres in 1915, during the First World War. [Wikimedia]

The eleventh of Trevor Dupuy’s Timeless Verities of Combat is:

Firepower kills, disrupts, suppresses, and causes dispersion.

From Understanding War (1987):

It is doubtful if any of the people who are today writing on the effect of technology on warfare would consciously disagree with this statement. Yet, many of them tend to ignore the impact of firepower on dispersion, and as a consequence they have come to believe that the more lethal the firepower, the more deaths, disruption, and suppression it will cause. In fact, as weapons have become more lethal intrinsically, their casualty-causing capability has either declined or remained about the same because of greater dispersion of targets. Personnel and tank loss rates of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, for example, were quite similar to those of intensive battles of World War II and the casualty rates in both of these wars were less than in World War I. (p. 7)

Research and analysis of real-world historical combat data by Dupuy and TDI has identified at least four distinct combat effects of firepower: infliction of casualties (lethality), disruption, suppression, and dispersion. All of them were found to be heavily influenced—if not determined—by moral (human) factors.

Again, I have written extensively on this blog about Dupuy’s theory about the historical relationship between weapon lethality, dispersion on the battlefield, and historical decline in average daily combat casualty rates. TDI President Chris Lawrence has done further work on the subject as well.

TDI Friday Read: Lethality, Dispersion, And Mass On Future Battlefields

Human Factors In Warfare: Dispersion

Human Factors In Warfare: Suppression

There appears to be a fundamental difference in interpretation of the combat effects of firepower between Dupuy’s emphasis on the primacy of human factors and Defense Department models that account only for the “physics-based” casualty-inflicting capabilities of weapons systems. While U.S. Army combat doctrine accounts for the interaction of firepower and human behavior on the battlefield, it has no clear method for assessing or even fully identifying the effects of such factors on combat outcomes.

NYMAS in Manhattan on Friday, 26 April

I will be presenting my book War by Numbers at the New York Military Affairs Symposium (NYMAS) on Friday, 26 April, at the Soldiers Sailors Club in New York City. The announcement is here: http://www.nymas.org/

The format is that I talk for an hour or so, and then take questions for the next 45 minutes.

There is a presentation on Friday the 12th of “The Grosse Importance of Kleine Krieg: Logistics, Operations, and ‘Little Wars’ in the late 17th Century Low Countries” by John Stapleton, U.S. Military Academy.

Face Validation

The phrase “face validation” shows up in our blog post earlier this week on Combat Adjudication. It is a phrase I have heard many times over the decades, sometimes by very established Operation Researchers (OR). So what does it mean?

Well, it is discussed in the Department of the Army Pamphlet 5-11: Verification, Validation and Accreditation of Army Models and Simulations: Pamphlet 5-11

Their first mention of it is on page 34: “SMEs [Subject Matter Experts] or other recognized individuals in the field of inquiry. The process by which experts compare M&S [Modeling and Simulation] structure and M&S output to their estimation of the real world is called face validation, peer review, or independent review.”

On page 35 they go on to state: “RDA [Research, Development, and Acquisition]….The validation method typically chosen for this category of M&S is face validation.”

And on page 36 under Technical Methods: “Face validation. This is the process of determining whether an M&S, on the surface, seems reasonable to personnel who are knowledgeable about the system or phenomena under study. This method applies the knowledge and understanding of experts in the field and is subject to their biases. It can produce a consensus of the community if the number of breadth of experience of the experts represent the key commands and agencies. Face validation is a point of departure to determine courses of action for more comprehensive validation efforts.” [I put the last part in bold]

Page 36: “Functional decomposition (sometimes known as piecewise validation)….When used in conjunction with face validation of the overall M&S results, functional decomposition is extremely useful in reconfirming previous validation of a recently modified portions of the M&S.”

I have not done a survey of all army, air force, navy, marine, coast guard or Department of Defense (DOD) regulations. This one is enough.

So, “face validation” is asking one or more knowledgeable (or more senior) people if the model looks good. I guess it really depends on whose the expert is and to what depth they look into it. I have never seen a “face validation” report (validation reports are also pretty rare).

Who’s “faces” do they use? Are they outside independent people or people inside the organization (or the model designer himself)? I am kind of an expert, yet, I have never been asked. I do happen to be one of the more experienced model validation people out there, having managed or directly created six+ validation databases and having conducted five validation-like exercises. When you consider that most people have not done one, should I be a “face” they contact? Or is this process often just to “sprinkle holy water” on the model and be done?

In the end, I gather for practical purposes the process of face validation is that if a group of people think it is good, then it is good. In my opinion, “face validation” is often just an argument that allows people to explain away or simply dismiss the need for any rigorous analysis of the model. The pamphlet does note that “Face validation is a point of departure to determine courses of action for more comprehensive validation efforts.” How often have we’ve seen the subsequent comprehensive validation effort? Very, very rarely. It appears that “face validation” is the end point.
…
Is this really part of the scientific method?
…

A Time for Crumpets

Charles MacDonald published in 1985 A Time for Trumpets, one of the better books on the Battle of the Bulge (and there are actually a lot of good works on this battle). In there he recounted a story of why the German Panzer Lehr Panzer Division, commanded by General Fritz Bayerlein, was held up for the better part of a day during the Battle for Bastogne. To quote:

For all Bayerlein’s concern about that armored force, he himself was at the point of directing less than full attention to conduct of the battle. In a wood outside Mageret, his troops had found a platoon from an American field hospital, and among the staff, a “young, blonde, and beautiful” American nurse attracted Bayerlein’s attention. Through much of December 19, he “dallied” with the nurse, who “held him spellbound.” [page 295]

Apparently MacDonald’s book was not the only source of this story: http://theminiaturespage.com/boards/msg.mv?id=186079

Now, I don’t know if “dallied” means that they were having tea and crumpets, or involved in something more intimate. The story apparently comes from Bayerlein himself, so something probably happened, but exactly what is not known. He was relieved of command after the failed offensive.

Fritz Bayerlein, March 1944 (Source: Bundesarchiv, Bild 146-1978-033-02/Dinstueler/CC-BY-SA 3.0)

When we met with Charles MacDonald in 1989, I did ask him about this story. He then recounted that he was recently at a U.S. veterans gathering talking to some other people, and some lady came up to him and told him that she knew the nurse in the story. MacDonald said he would get back to her….but then could not locate her later. So this was an opportunity to confirm and get more details of the story, but, it was lost (to history). But it does sort of confirm that there is some basis to Bayerlein’s story.

Now, this discussion with MacDonald is from memory, but I believe (the authors) Jay Karamales, Richard Anderson and possibly Curt Johnson were also at that dinner, and they may remember the conversation (differently?).

Anyhow, A Time for Strumpets Trumpets is a book worth reading.

Combat Adjudication

As I stated in a previous post, I am not aware of any other major validation efforts done in the last 25 years other than what we have done. Still, there is one other effort that needs to be mentioned. This is described in a 2017 report: Using Combat Adjudication to Aid in Training for Campaign Planning.pdf

I gather this was work by J-7 of the Joint Staff to develop Joint Training Tools (JTT) using the Combat Adjudication Service (CAS) model. There are a few lines in the report that warm my heart:

  1. “It [JTT] is based on and expanded from Dupuy’s Quantified Judgement Method of Analysis (QJMA) and Tactical Deterministic Model.”
  2. “The CAS design used Dupuy’s data tables in whole or in part (e.g. terrain, weather, water obstacles, and advance rates).”
  3. “Non-combat power variables describing the combat environment and other situational information are listed in Table 1, and are a subset of variables (Dupuy, 1985).”
  4. “The authors would like to acknowledge COL Trevor N. Dupuy for getting Michael Robel interested in combat modeling in 1979.”

Now, there is a section labeled verification and validation. Let me quote from that:

CAS results have been “Face validated” against the following use cases:

    1. The 3:1 rules. The rule of thumb postulating an attacking force must have at least three times the combat power of the defending force to be successful.
    2. 1st (US) Infantry Divison vers 26th (IQ) Infantry Division during Desert Storm
    3. The Battle of 73 Easting: 2nd ACR versus elements of the Iraqi Republican Guards
    4. 3rd (US) Infantry Division’s first five days of combat during Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF)

Each engagement is conducted with several different terrain and weather conditions, varying strength percentages and progresses from a ground only engagement to multi-service engagements to test the effect of CASP [Close Air Support] and interdiction on the ground campaign. Several shortcomings have been detected, but thus far ground and CASP match historical results. However, modeling of air interdiction could not be validated.

So, this is a face validation based upon three cases. This is more than what I have seen anyone else do in the last 25 years.

Dupuy’s Verities: Surprise

The Death of Paulus Aemilius at the Battle of Cannae by John Trumbell (1773). [Wikimedia]

The tenth of Trevor Dupuy’s Timeless Verities of Combat is:

Surprise substantially enhances combat power.

From Understanding War (1987):

Achieving surprise in combat has always been important. It is perhaps more important today than ever. Quantitative analysis of historical combat shows that surprise has increased the combat power of military forces in those engagements in which it was achieved. Surprise has proven to be the greatest of all combat multipliers. It may be the most important of the Principles of War; it is at least as important as Mass and Maneuver.

I have already written quite a bit on Dupuy’s conceptualization of surprise so I won’t go into it in detail here. These previous posts provide a summary:

The Combat Value of Surprise

Human Factors In Warfare: Surprise

Dupuy’s analysis focused on how surprise influenced combat power by enhancing the mobility and reducing the vulnerability of the side with surprise, and by increasing the vulnerability of the side that was surprised. In 2004, TDI undertook a study for the late Andy Marshall’s Office of the Secretary of Defense/Net Assessment to measure the historical combat value of situational awareness (more knowledge by one side than the other) and informational advantage (better knowledge by one side than the other) and how each of these factors related to surprise in combat. Chris Lawrence detailed this research and its conclusions in chapters 10 and 11 in his 2017 book, War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat.

In general, the study found that both superior situational awareness and better information enhanced combat power, though perhaps not quite as much as inferred from the relevant literature. It also confirmed that surprise conferred an even greater combat power benefit, above and beyond that provided by battlefield awareness or informational advantages. It also suggested that the primary benefit of a situational or knowledge advantage in combat was not in achieving surprise over an enemy, but in preventing an opponent from achieving surprise itself.

These results, though quite suggestive, were tentative and more research is necessary. However, no follow on studies on this subject have been funded to date.

NYMAS on 26 April

I will be presenting my book War by Numbers at the New York Military Affairs Symposium (NYMAS) on Friday, 26 April, at the Soldiers Sailors Club in New York City. On the 12th there is a presentation of “The Grosse Importance of Kleine Krieg: Logistics, Operations, and ‘Little Wars’ in the late 17th Century Low Countries” by John Stapleton, U.S. Military Academy. The announcement is here: http://www.nymas.org/

Other Validation Data Bases

There have been (only) three other major historical validations done that I am aware of that we were not involved in. They are 1) the validation of the Atlas model to the France 1940 campaign done in the 1970s, 2) the validation of the Vector model using the Golan Heights campaign of 1973, and 3) the validation of SIMNET/JANUS using 73 Easting Data from the 1991 Gulf War. I am not aware of any other major validation efforts done in the last 25 years other than what we have done (there is one face validation done in 2017 that I will discuss in a later post).

I have never seen a validation report for the ATLAS model and never seen a reference to any of its research or data from the France 1940 campaign. I suspect it does not exist. The validation of Vector was only done for unit movement. They did not validate the attrition or combat functions. These were inserted from the actual battle. The validation was done in-house by Vector, Inc. I have seen the reports from that effort but am not aware of any databases or special research used. See Chapter 18 of War by Numbers for more details and also our newsletter in 1996 on the subject: http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/pdf/v1n4.pdf

So, I know of only one useful validation database out there that is not created by us. This is the Battle of 73 Easting. It was created under contract and used for validation of the JTLS (Joint Theater-Level Simulation).

But, the Battle of 73 Easting is a strange one-sided affair. First, it was fought in a sandstorm. Visibility was severely limited. Our modern systems allowed us to see the Iraqis. The Iraqis could not see us. Therefore, it is a very one-sided affair where the U.S. had maybe 6 soldiers killed, 19 wounded ant lost one Bradley fighting vehicle. The Iraqi had been 600-1,000 casualties and dozens of tanks lost to combat (and dozens more lost to aerial bombardment in the days and weeks before the battle). According to Wikipedia they lost 160 tanks and 180 armored personnel carriers. It was a shooting gallery. I did have a phone conversation with some of the people who did the veteran interviews for this effort. They said that this fight devolved to the point that the U.S. troops were trying to fire in front of the Iraqi soldiers to encourage them to surrender. Over 1,300 Iraqis were taken prisoner.

This battle is discussed in the Wikipedia article here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_73_Easting

I did get the validation report on this and it is somewhere in our files (although I have not seen it for years). I do remember one significant aspect of the validation effort, which is that while it indeed got the correct result (all the Iraqi’s were destroyed), it did so having the Americans use four times as much ammunition as they did historically. Does this mean that the models attrition calculation was off by a factor of four?

Anyhow, I gather the database and the validation report are available from the U.S. government. Of course, it is a very odd battle and doing a validation to just one odd one-sided battle runs the danger of the “N=1” problem. Probably best to do validations to multiple battles.

A more recent effort (2017) that included some validation effort is discussed in a report called “Using Combat Adjudication to Aid in Training for Campaign Planning.” I will discuss this in a later blog post.

Now, there are a number of other database out there addressing warfare. For example the Correlates of War (COW) databases (see: COW), databases maintained by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) (see: SIPRI) and other such efforts. We have never used these but do not think by their nature that they are useful for validating combat models at division, battalion or company level.

Company Commander

I recently re-read Company Commander by the late Charles B. McDonald. I had read it as a kid and picked up a used copy of it for my son. It was a Bantam War Book, specially illustrated edition. It still had the original price tag from 1979 on it: $2.25. My son never read it, so I decided to earlier this month.

What caught my attention on the re-reading was a passage on pages 212 and 215 that stated:

The buildings on either side of us disrupted the weak platoon radios, and I could not contact Sergeant Patton. We moved forward quickly, calling over the radio as we went, until we established contact. They had run into German machine guns in the last scattered house of the town and were having a stiff fight. I said I would send our light machine guns to help and called for them from the weapons platoon. They hurried up the street toward the sound of the firing.

Battalion radioed a change of orders….

I tried to call the platoons, but I could contact only the 1st and 2d, and Sergeant Patton said he did not know if he could disengage himself from the fire fight.

I told him to get out as quickly as he could, “Then move back to the castle and follow us around to the left. You’ll be the support platoon. If you can’t get away soon, we’ll start on up the hill without you. Just leave the Krauts. F company will take care of them.”

We’ve got three prisoners in the basement of a house,” Patton said, “and we have to cross a hundred yards of open field to get back out. We’ll never make it with the prisoners.”

“Roger,” I answered. “Do what you can.”…[page 212]

[page 215] Sergeant Patton’s platoon arrived, tired and dusty from the tiring uphill walk from Bendorf-Sayn. The prisoners were not with them.

Company G today committed a war crime. They are going to win the war, however, so I don’t suppose it really matters. [This paragraph was in italics in the original]

There is also a brief passage on pages 286 and 288:

Colonel Smith sent a messenger to tell me to meet him at a house in the center of the town….

“I just ran into your boy Junior,” Colonel Smith said. “He’s having a little trouble with a German major who claims he’s in command of all the flak defenses around Merseburg and seems quite put out that your men took him prisoner. He kept begging Junior either to shoot him or let him shoot himself. Junior was about to let him have his way when I happened up.” [page 286]

[page 288] “OK, Mac,” the Colonel answered….”By the way,” he added, “you can tell Junior that we finally had to dispense with his German major. He tried to make a run for it.”

Company Commander appears to be a very honest account. These are certainly uncomfortable passages. He did have the option to leave them out.

I did meet with Charles Macdonald back in the late 1980s. Him and Hugh Cole were consultants to the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base (ACSDB).

Validation Data Bases Available (Ardennes)

I still recall our conversations with him, particularly about the American nurse and German General Fritz Bayerlein at Bastogne, but that is the subject of another post.

Other TDI Data Bases

What we have listed in the previous articles is what we consider the six best databases to use for validation. The Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base (ACSDB) was used for a validation effort by CAA (Center for Army Analysis). The Kursk Data Base (KDB) was never used for a validation effort but was used, along with Ardennes, to test Lanchester equations (they failed).

The Use of the Two Campaign Data Bases

The Battle of Britain Data Base to date has not been used for anything that we are aware of. As the program we were supporting was classified, then they may have done some work with it that we are not aware of, but I do not think that is the case.

The Battle of Britain Data Base

Our three battles databases, the division-level data base, the battalion-level data base and the company-level data base, have all be used for validating our own TNDM (Tactical Numerical Deterministic Model). These efforts have been written up in our newsletters (here: http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/tdipub4.htm) and briefly discussed in Chapter 19 of War by Numbers. These are very good databases to use for validation of a combat model or testing a casualty estimation methodology. We have also used them for a number of other studies (Capture Rate, Urban Warfare, Lighter-Weight Armor, Situational Awareness, Casualty Estimation Methodologies, etc.). They are extremely useful tools analyzing the nature of conflict and how it impacts certain aspects. They are, of course, unique to The Dupuy Institute and for obvious business reasons, we do keep them close hold.

The Division Level Engagement Data Base (DLEDB)

Battalion and Company Level Data Bases

We do have a number of other database that have not been used as much. There is a list of 793 conflicts from 1898-1998 that we have yet to use for anything (the WACCO – Warfare, Armed Conflict and Contingency Operations database). There is the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) of 196 cases from 1904 to 1991, which was used for the Lighter Weight Armor study. There are three databases that are mostly made of cases from the original Land Warfare Data Base (LWDB) that did not fit into our division-level, battalion-level, and company-level data bases. They are the Large Action Data Base (LADB) of 55 cases from 1912-1973, the Small Action Data Base (SADB) of 5 cases and the Battles Data Base (BaDB) of 243 cases from 1600-1900. We have not used these three database for any studies, although the BaDB is used for analysis in War by Numbers.

Finally, there are three databases on insurgencies, interventions and peacekeeping operations that we have developed. This first was the Modern Contingency Operations Data Base (MCODB) that we developed to use for Bosnia estimate that we did for the Joint Staff in 1995. This is discussed in Appendix II of America’s Modern Wars. It then morphed into the Small Scale Contingency Operations (SSCO) database which we used for the Lighter Weight Army study. We then did the Iraq Casualty Estimate in 2004 and significant part of the SSCO database was then used to create the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets (MISS). This is all discussed in some depth in my book America’s Modern Wars.

None of these, except the Campaign Data Base and the Battles Data Base (1600-1900), are good for use in a model validation effort. The use of the Campaign Data Base should be supplementary to validation by another database, much like we used it in the Lighter Weight Armor study.

Now, there have been three other major historical validation efforts done that we were not involved in. I will discuss their supporting data on my next post on this subject.