Mystics & Statistics

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 62

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

This is weekly update number 62 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) declined to 477 new cases over the week. Last week it was 916 new cases. Twenty weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Europe also seems to be slowly bringing the virus under control. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 2K new cases for yesterday. The UK has had an upswing, reporting 6K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France has the fourth highest number of cases in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Yesterday they reported for France 6K new cases. Their death count of 110,302 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, India, Mexico, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 128,118 dead in a population of 66.8 million, Italy with 126,690 deaths in a population of 59.2 million or Belgium with 25,051 deaths out of a population of 11.6 million. These three countries have a higher reported mortality rate than the United States (598,333 deaths in a population of 331.7 million). Don’t know for certain if they are the only three countries with a higher mortality rate, but I think so. The new case count yesterday for Spain is 3.5K, for Germany it is 2K and for Russia 10K new cases a day. Keep in mind, these are daily rates. They do add up over the course of a week. The U.S. (population 331.7 million) had 15K new cases yesterday, which is an improvement. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (19, but see link below), Japan (1,883), South Korea (601), Taiwan (203), Vietnam (195), Singapore (9), Australia (5) and New Zealand (4). Again, these are daily rates. Japan’s rate is pretty high for a country about to host the Olympics.

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 9:23 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE. 

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….49,011……49,119…1,137
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,291……15,295…..257
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,837……11,846…..137
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……77,010…..77,028..1,105
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….431………430………8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….567………567……..20
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……..27,940…..27,986……280
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….45,438.….45,510……499
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,311…….4,311…….47
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,217……..1,218…….11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960…….11,428……11,456….…81
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..2,137……..2,140…….25
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……70,935…..70,995…1,613
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……85,089…..85,218…1,580
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425….402,642…403,119….6,800

 

The Mortality Rate is 1.69%. There were 24 fatalities in the last week compared to 477 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 5.03% (which is high, but probably caused by the declining number of reported new cases). The population known to have been infected is 7.51% or one confirmed case for every 13 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I gather that the number vaccinated (at least one shot) at least 80% for this area and if we add to this the number previously infected we are looking at around 90% or more of the population partially or fully protected.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had only 182 new cases yesterday. Last week it was 59 cases. Nineteen weeks ago it was 4,707. 

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,156 cases (2,147 last week) and 10 deaths.

Concerning China: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-returns-to-its-strict-covid-restrictions-to-fight-a-new-outbreak/ar-AAKRR89?ocid=msedgntp

Variable 2: What is the changing composition of the politburo?

This subject would be best discussed by a proper “China watcher”, vice me. But… let me make a few observations on this. Politburo’s in the Soviet Union and in Red China have traditionally, but not always, been subservient to the leading political figure of the day. This leading figure is usually the Chairman of the communist party, although during the time of Deng Xiaopiing, he was the leading figure even though his official role was the Chairman of the Central Military Commission until 9 November 1989. While he held no official office after that he clearly was still considered the “paramount leader” and was still the senior leader in China up until his death in 1997 at the age of 92. Still, politburo’s sometimes have a significant role. The next leader invariably comes from it, and they are involved to some extent in choosing the next leader. The nature of the politburo does matter as they often reign in leadership and sometimes even try to overthrow leadership. So usually their operations are low-key and behind the scenes, until such time as they are not.

The current politburo of Chinese Communist Party consists of 25 people. But the power of the politburo has been further centralized in the Politburo Standing Committee of seven members. They are Xi Jinping (President of PRC and General Secretary CCP, aged 67), Li Keqiang (Premier, aged 65), Li Zhanshu (Chairman of National People’s Congress, aged 70), Wang Yang (Chairman of Political Consultative Conference, aged 66), Wang Huning (First Secretary CCP, aged 65), Zhao Leji (Chairman Dicipline Inspection, aged 64) and Han Zheng (Vice Premier, aged 67).

This is a pretty homogenous crowd, all aged between 64 and 70. Mostly likely, as Xi Jinping ages and retires, none of these people are going to be his long-term replacement. Over the next decade or two there will a rising generations of new leaders pulled up into the politburo. So the generational replacement for Xi Jinping is not in place yet, or at least he/she is not currently sitting on the Politburo Standing Committee.

This, of course, just reinforces my impression that the Politburo and therefore the leadership of China will be fairly cautious and deliberate for the next decade and perhaps for the next two decades. Potentially adventurous and risk-taking leaders are currently not in place, and they can only rise to the top as positions are opened. This may take a while.

Variable 1: Who is the leader of China?

This is a pretty straightforward discussion. Xi Jinping is 67 years old. It is not unusual for leaders to remain in power in dictatorships until they are well into the 80s. It is also possible that leaders in China can retire (it has happened recently). So, the four options are:

  1. Xi Jinping remains in power for the next 20 years.
  2. Xi Jinping is retired after 10-15 years (or sooner).
  3. Xi Jinping is marginalized or replaced (this does not look likely now, but could happen a decade from now, although still not likely).
  4. Xi Jinping could be gone from power tomorrow due to health reasons.

As outlined in a previous post, there are lots of reasons to believe nothing significant will happen in Taiwan as long as Xi Jinping remains in power. See: Will China take the risk and actually invade Taiwan? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

So, the question is, will he be gone from power anytime soon (probably not likely) and if he is gone from power, then who will replace him. Lets say he is gone from power in the next 10 to 15 years. Then, what we are looking at:

  1. He is replaced by another cautious and deliberate Chinese leader, which means Taiwan will not be on the front burner (i.e. more of the same).
  2. He is replaced by a leader that actually just doesn’t care much that Taiwan is an independent entity (after all this is an issue that now dates back over 70 years).
  3. He is replace by more adventurous, nationalistic, risk-taking or radical leader who is willing to take on such an invasion and the politburo is willing to go along.
  4. He is replaced by a more adventurous, nationalistic, risk-taking or radical leader who is willing to take on such an invasion and the politburo is not willing to go along.
  5. The politburo is packed with people more adventurous, nationalistic, risk-taking or radical and will push the leadership (who may not be able to say no) into such an effort.

It is pretty hard to determine what are the odds of this, but we will probably be staring at a leadership change in the next 15 to 20 years. I am no China expert, but my sense that there is at least a 50/50 chance that Xi Jinping will be replace by someone similar, or option 1 above. There is also at least a 50/50 chance that the politburo will remain cautious. They may serve to reign in a more adventurous leader. I think the odds of getting a risk-taking adventurous leader who has the backing from an acquiescent or supportive politburo is probably less than 25%. Again, I am no China expert and there is really no way to estimate the odds. This is a “guesstimate” shall we say.

On the other hand, a useful survey would be to examine what percent of Sovietologists who predicted that someone like Khrushchev would replace Stalin and heavily reform the Stalinist state? Also what percent of Sovietologists predicted the Brezhnev would replace Khrushchev and the reforms of Khrushchev would be reeled in? What percent of Sovietologists predicted that Gorbachev would rise to power and so radically change the Soviet state that it would collapse? I have never seen such a survey done, but I think I know generally what is the answer to this.

But based upon the patterns we have seen in Chinese leadership and the politburo, most likely nothing will significantly change in the next 20 years. On the other hand, it can…..

This leads us to Variable 2: What is the changing composition of the politburo?

Will China invade Taiwan in the next 20 years?

I did three posts recently looking at the claim by retiring Admiral Phillip Davidson of the Indo-Pacific Command indicating that he thought China might invade Taiwan in the next six years: “I think the threat is manifest…in the next six years…” I ended up concluding (in bold) that “I do find the idea that mainland China will invade Taiwan in the next 6 years to be somewhat loopy.” I was surprised that I did not receive any comments about that characterization.

Now, it is possible that China may invade Taiwan, not in the near future, but over the next decade or two. Let us say in the next 20 years. So what would have to change to make this option viable in the next 20 years when it is really not likely in the next 6 years?

I think the following will influence this:

  1. Who is the leader of China?
  2. What is the changing composition of the politburo?
  3. How is the economy of China doing?
  4. Is there a problem with internal turmoil and unrest in China?
  5. What is the degree of U.S. commitment to Taiwan?
  6. What is the size and capabilities of the Chinese Armed Forces?

 

I will have to address each of these variables one blog post at a time. As I don’t like to do particularly long blog posts (unlike my books), I will address each of these variables in a separate blog post, maybe every other day, if I am so focused.

In this case, I am looking at a conventional amphibious operation, as I think that is the only approach over the next 20 years that will actually bring Taiwan under control of China. There are other options and operations that China can do that may intimidate or coerce Taiwan and modify their behavior, but these do not bring Taiwan under the direct control of China. To control Taiwan without an amphibious invasion is a much longer, complex and more difficult process, and I am not going to discuss that here.

Keep in mind that right now, in a conventional warfare scenario, if Taiwan has military support from the United States, the most likely outcome would be a failed invasion. The political and economic cost of a failed invasion would be very significant, possibly resulting in the collapse of the ruling party of the People’s Republic of China.

 

Past three blog posts on the subject:

Invading Taiwan in the next six years – wherefore and why? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Invading Taiwan in the next six years – the fight? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Will China take the risk and actually invade Taiwan? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

 

P.S. Today is the 77th anniversary of the Normandy invasion. Related blog post: The Dupuy Institute on Youtube | Mystics & Statistics

Does a copy of the silent film The Sky Raider (1925) still exist? – apparently not

I have been trying to find a copy of the silent film The Sky Raider (1925) staring the famous French ace Charles Nungesser. Does the movie still exist?

I have so far only been able to find this 2.36 minute extract, with the text in Dutch: Bits & Pieces Nr. 15 (The Sky Raider) – YouTube

Is there a complete copy of the movie anywhere?

 

Related posts:

Nungesser’s first battle | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Episode Nungesser | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

 

P.S.: I just found on IMDBPro where it is saying under “details” that “No print of this film is known to exist.”

 

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 61

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

This is weekly update number 61 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) declined to 916 new cases. Last week it was 1,076 new cases. Nineteen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Europe seems to be slowly bringing the spread of the virus under control. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 2.5K new cases for yesterday, which is a notable improvement. The UK has had a slight upswing, reporting 3K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France has the fourth highest number of cases in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Their death count of 109,827 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, India, Mexico, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 128,045 dead in a population of 66.8 million, Italy with 126,221 deaths in a population of 59.2 million or Belgium with 24,968 deaths out of a population of 11.6 million. These three countries have a higher reported mortality rate than the United States (595,302 deaths in a population of 331.7 million). Don’t know for certain if they are the only three countries with a higher mortality rate, but I think so. Yesterday they reported for France 10K new cases. The new case count yesterday for Spain is 4K, for Germany it is 3K and for Russia 9K new cases a day. The U.S. (population 331.7 million) had 23K new cases yesterday, which is the same as last week. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (31), Japan (2,641), South Korea (677), Taiwan (331), Vietnam (193), Singapore (18), Australia (6) and New Zealand (6).

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 11:24 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE. This website has been recently revised and is worth looking at.

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….48,822……49,011…..1,135
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,284..….15,291…….256
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,831..….11,837…….137
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……76,877.….77,010…..1,103
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….433.………431………..8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..……….560.……..567………19
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….27,889..….27,940…….278
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….45,361..….45,438.…..499
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,307..…..4,311………47
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,217..…..1,217..……11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960…….11,393……11,428…..…81
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..2,133….…2,137….…25
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……70,743..…70,935…1,604
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……84,876…..85,089…1,573
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425….401,726…402,642….6,776

 

The Mortality Rate is 1.68%. There were 156 fatalities in the last week compared to 916 new cases. These odd statistics are driven by Montgomery County adding 67 new cases this last week while Prince Georges added 73 new cases. This was probably just catching up in the record keeping. The population known to have been infected is 7.50% or one confirmed case for every 13 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I gather that the number vaccinated (at least one shot) at least 70% for this area and if we add to this the number previously infected we are looking at around 80% or more of the population partially protected.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had only 59 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 654 cases. Eighteen weeks ago it was 4,707. 

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,147 cases (2,136 last week) and 10 deaths.

Proposed Defense Budget for 2022

The president has proposed his defense budget for 2022. The budget has not gone down, which may not have been what some people expected. The Department of Defense (DOD) budget is $715 billion. This is an increase in the budget of $10 billion from 2021, or about 1.6 percent. Inflation in 2020 is estimated to be 1.5 percent. The overall budget for “national defense” is $753 billion, with expenditures for the Department of Energy and other federal agencies included.

Don’t have details of the budget. It may be out there, but I have not chased them down yet. So, I don’t know what the Army’s share of the budget is. Budget for 2021 included supplemental spending bills and funding transfers and the expenses for combat operations were separately funded. For this proposed budget, these are included in this budget and are $18.4 billion. This is apparently a drop of 21 percent from last year.

There is a renewed focus on conventional war against near-parity opponents. We are now looking at a 296-ship fleet vice a 355-ship fleet envisioned by the previous administration. The 355-ship fleet was kind of a wasteful pipedream that was not easily achievable. It harkened back to the movement for a 600-ship fleet that was envisioned in the 1980s. This was briefly attained before it was cut back. They are also decommissioning two Littoral Combat Ships (LCS), which always struck me as a bizarre expenditure of money. Then there is the controversial F-35 program, which has been reduce from 60 new planes this year to 48. They are retiring 42 A-10s, leaving the Air Force with 239. Artillery is back in fashion with $6.6 billion to develop and field long-range fires. Overall, they are spending a lot on R&D, the “largest-ever” R&D spending according to the SecDef (I have not tested statement against inflation). There was $107 billion R&D requested in 2021. For 2022 it is higher (but I did not see an exact figure).

By the way, the budget for the State Department and international programs is proposed as 63.6 billion.  

This is a proposed budget. It is a recommendation sent to congress and congress can choose to do whatever they wish with it. As it is a Democratic controlled House and a bare Democratic majority in the Senate, it may be passed close to as is, but probably will not be unscathed. Most likely, if it is significantly changed it will be to reduce it in general or to maintain or restore hardware (LCS and A-10s) that DOD is trying to reduce. I don’t expect the final figures to be much lower than what is proposed.

The total active and reserve component of the military is planned to be 2,145,900, which is a slight reduction (4,475 less) than last year. Chinese active personnel is 2,185,000 in 2021. Russia’s active personnel is 1,454,000.

In contrast the estimated defense budget for the Chinese armed forces for 2020 or 2021 is given as $193.3 (IISS-2020), $209.4 billion (Wikipedia-2021) or $252.0 (SIPRI-2020). This is between 1.3% to 1.7% of GDP. In contrast the U.S. defense budget is 3.4% to 3.7% of GDP. The Chinese budget in purchase parity (PPP) figures I gather would be some 1.6 times higher.

The defense budget for Russia is given as 61.7 billion in 2020. This is around 3.9% to 4.3% of GDP (as of 2019). The Russian budget in PPP figures is probably around 2.5 times higher.

 

See: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-look-at-what-s-inside-biden-s-6-trillion-budget-request/ar-AAKuAdi?ocid=msedgntp

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/28/pentagon-asks-for-715-billion-in-2022-defense-budget.html

https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2639101/dod-budget-request-boosts-research-nuclear-modernization-and-includes-27-pay-ra/

https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2021/05/27/pentagon-budget-will-shake-up-legacy-systems-lawmakers-are-shaking-back/

https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2021/5/28/air-force-proposal-would-shift-funding-to-new-aircraft

https://breakingdefense.com/2021/05/secdef-rd-spending-to-skyrocket-in-22-budget/

Older related blog posts:

GAO: “We’re 26 ships into the contract and we still don’t know if the [Littoral Combat Ship] can do its job.” | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The Challenge of Getting to a 350-Ship Fleet | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The Saga of the F-35: Too Big To Fail? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

U.S. Army Invests In Revitalizing Long Range Precision Fires Capabilities | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Status Update On U.S. Long Range Fires Capabilities | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 60

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

This is weekly update number 60 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) declined to 1,076 new cases. Last week it was 2,015 new cases (revised calculation). Eighteen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Europe seems to be slowly bring the spread of the virus under control. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 3K new cases for yesterday, which is a notable improvement. The UK continues to contain the virus with 2K new cases reported yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France has the fourth highest number of cases in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Their death count of 109,041 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, India, Mexico, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 128,010 dead in a population of 66.8 million, Italy with 125,622 deaths in a population of 59.2 million or Belgium with 24,873 deaths out of a population of 11.6 million. These three countries have a higher reported mortality rate than the United States (591,035 deaths in a population of 331.7 million). Don’t know for certain if they are the only three countries with a higher mortality rate, but I think so. Yesterday they reported for France only 3K new cases. This is unusually low as they were reporting 10K cases two days earlier. The new case count yesterday for Spain is 5K, for Germany it is 3K and Russia remains permanently wedded to 8K new cases a week, as it has for weeks (not that I particularly trust the Russian figures and will blog about this soon). The U.S. (population 331.7 million), which has never gotten the virus under control, had 23K new cases yesterday, which is an improvement over last week. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (no report, but very low), Japan (3,918), South Korea (699), Taiwan (539, which is their highest daily total), Vietnam (527, which is also their highest daily total), Singapore (30), Australia (17) and New Zealand (1 on 5/24/21).

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 11:20 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE. This website has been recently revised and is worth looking at.

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….48,634……48,822….1,131
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,279……15,284…….256
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,799……11,831…….137
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……76,717…..76,877….1,092
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….434………433……….9
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..……….557………560………19
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….27,817…..27,889…….278
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….45,197…..45,361……..500
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,302…….4,307………47
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,218…….1,217………11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960…….11,327……11,393………79
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..2,122…….2,133………24
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……70,686…..70,743….1,537
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……84,561…..84,876….1,500
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425….400,650…401,726….6,620

The Mortality Rate is 1.65%. There were 35 fatalities in the last week compared to 1,076 new cases or a weekly mortality rate of 3.25%. This is almost certainly caused by the lag in mortality compared to the declining number of cases. The population known to have been infected is 7.49% or one confirmed case for every 13 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I gather that the number vaccinated (at least one shot) at least 70% for this area and if we add to this the number previously infected we are looking at around 80% or more of the population partially protected.

The Virginia University Towns:

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville, Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) as they are located in or near major population centers. I gather that they have all emptied out now and gone home for the summer. Therefore, let us take a look at the stats for the area for a second.

UVA seemed to have the strictest and best covid control efforts. It shows:

Charlottesville (pop. 47K) with 4,011 cases and 57 deaths 

Albemarle County (pop. 109K) with 5,787 cases and 83 deaths.

This comes out to 85 and 53 cases per thousand people and 1.21 and 0.76 deaths per thousand people.

To compare them to other areas:

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) with 6,495 cases and 94 deaths

Rockingham County (pop. 81K) with 6,800 cases and 108 deaths.

This comes out to 120 and 84 cases per thousand people and 1.74 and 1.33 deaths per thousand people.

This is an indirect comparison of James Madison University policy and UVA policy, which was radically different, especially in the fall. One can see the difference in the figures of for the overall population.

To the south is Liberty U and Virginia Tech. Lynchburg (home of Liberty U.) did not fare well.

Lynchburg (pop. 82K) with 7,881 cases and 154 deaths.
For Lynchburg this comes out to 96 cases per thousand people and 1.88 deaths per thousand people. They have the highest death rate, leading me to suspect that the testing was less.

 

Montgomery County (pop. 99K) with 9,399 cases and 97 deaths.

For Montgomery Country this comes out to 95 cases per thousand people and 0.97 deaths per thousand people.


This was somewhat of a “laboratory-like” situation where you had four universities of 23K to 36K students located in rural areas of around 100K population. They did show different rates per capita in cases and in deaths.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 654 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 378 cases. Seventeen weeks ago it was 4,707. 

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,136 cases (2,123 last week) and 10 deaths.

JSTOR, Trevor Dupuy, Combat Data and the 3:1 Rule

In moments of quiet I sometimes search the internet to see if people are referencing our work. Sometimes I run across articles and discussions I have forgotten about. This was one of them: Combat Data and the 3:1 Rule

We have blogged about this subject a few times before (and even referenced the JSTOR article):

The Source of the U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule versus the 752 Case Division-level Data Base 1904-1991 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule versus 49 U.S. Civil War battles | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule versus 243 Battles 1600-1900 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The Great 3-1 Rule Debate | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The 3-to-1 Rule in Recent History Books | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Questioning The Validity Of The 3-1 Rule Of Combat | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Comparing the RAND Version of the 3:1 Rule to Real-World Data | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

TDI Friday Read: The Validity Of The 3-1 Rule Of Combat | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The 3-to-1 Rule in Histories | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Trevor Dupuy and the 3-1 Rule | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 59

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

This is weekly update number 59 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased slightly to 2,015 new cases. Last week it was lower than it was forty-six weeks ago. There were 1,981 new cases last week and 3,676 new cases the week before. Seventeen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 4K new cases for yesterday, which is a notable improvement. The UK continues to keep the virus under control with 2K new cases reported for 17 May. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France has the fourth highest number of cases in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Their death count of 108,208 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, India, Mexico, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 127,956 dead in a population of 66.8 million or Italy with 124,646 deaths in a population of 60.3 million. Yesterday they reported for France 17K new cases, so they do appear to be getting this back under control. The new case count yesterday for Spain is 4K, for Germany it is 8K and Russia remains at 8K as it has for weeks (not that I particularly trust the Russian figures and will blog about this soon). The U.S. (population 331.4 million), which has never gotten the virus under control, had 28K new cases yesterday, which is an improvement over last week. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (no report, but very low), Japan (5,204), South Korea (653), Taiwan (243, which is one of their highest daily totals), Vietnam (153, which is one of their highest daily totals), Singapore (38), Australia (9) and New Zealand (5).

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 1:20 PM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE. This website has been recently revised and is worth looking at.

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….48,282….48,634…..1,124
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,239….15,279……..256
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,759….11,799……..135
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……76,460….76,717…..1,081
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….430……..434…………9
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..………556…..…557………..19
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….27,686….27,817…..…277
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….45,064….45,197……..496
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,296……4,302……….47
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,217……1,218….……11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960…….11,239…..11,327….…..79
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..2,122…….2,122….…..23
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……70,298.…70,686…..1,537
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……83,987.…84,561…..1,491
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425….398,635…400,650…..6,585


This is a 1% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate is 1.64%. Three weeks ago there were 6,457 fatalities reported, now it is up to 6,585 total fatalities or 128 fatalities in the last three weeks. The number of new cases in the last three weeks is 400,650 – 392,978 = 7,672. This is a mortality rate of 1.67%. The population known to have been infected is 7.47% or one confirmed case for every 13 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I gather that the number vaccinated (at least one shot) is around 70% for this area and if we add to this the number previously infected we are looking at around 80% or more of the population partially protected.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville, Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) as they are located in or near major population centers. I gather that they have all emptied out now and gone home for the summer. Therefore, this will be the last time I report on this.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 6,489 cases (6,477 last week) and 94 deaths, while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,770 cases (6,739 last week) and 107 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 4,011 cases (4,010 last week) and 57 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 5,784 cases (5,760 last week) and 83 deaths. This is where UVA is located. One notes with similar populations the comparison between Harrisonburg/Rockingham vs Charlottesville/Albemarle.

For UVA, https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker, after peaking at 229 new cases on 2/16, they had imposed new restrictions. The number of cases dropped precipitously and they partially eased up the restrictions. This Monday (5/17) there were no new cases. It does show what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures.

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 7,841 cases (7,744 last week) cases and 150 deaths.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 9,390 cases (9,363 last week) and 96 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

I do report the population, number of cases and number of deaths for each of these areas. This is because this is somewhat of a “laboratory-like” situation where you have four universities of 23K to 36K students located in rural areas of around 100K population. They do have different rates per capita in cases and in deaths.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had only 378 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 600 cases. Sixteen weeks ago it was 4,707. 

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,123 cases (2,114 last week) and 10 deaths.