Mystics & Statistics

Mark Perry – part 2 (and Landmine Restrictions)

Last week author Mark Perry passed away. I had not talked to him in over a decade, but we worked with him 20 years ago. Links to articles on him:

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/death-of-an-american-original-mark-perry-1950-2021/

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/08/08/rip-mark-perry-an-extraordinary-journalist-in-extraordinary-times/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Perry_(author)

Mark Perry, working with the Vietnam Veterans of America Foundation (VVAF), had arranged to have our original 1997 report that we did for the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) on the “Military Consequences of Landmine Restrictions” published and distributed, along with the letters exchanged between TDI President Nick Krawciw (MG, USA, ret) to General John Shalikashvili, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff. This is discussed in our previous blog post:

Mark Perry | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

That earlier report used to be on line. It does not appear that VVAF maintains its website any more. As dozens, if not hundreds of the report were printed and distributed, I assume there is a copy of in the Library of Congress, but it does not seem to otherwise be available. Of course, it can be ordered from us. I probably need to make it available on line.  Here some links to it:

MILITARY CONSEQUENCES OF LANDMINE RESTRICTIONS : THE DUPUY INSTITUTE’S RESEARCH STUDY VVAF MONOGRAPH SERIES, VOL. 1, NUMBER 2, SPRING 2000 | Dupuy Institute (secondstorybooks.com)

SIPRI Library and Documentation catalog › Details for: Military consequences of landmine restrictions

The Dupuy Institute’s Research Study: Military Consequences of Landmine Restrictions by The Dupuy Institute – Paperback – 2000 – from Ground Zero Books, Ltd. (SKU: 52962) (biblio.com)

After that report was published, Mark Perry, who lived down the road from our office in McLean, Va., kept coming over to our office and asking us for additional information. This ended up turning into three small reports (M-3, M-4, M5).

TDI – The Dupuy Institute Publications

M-3. An Analysis of Rapid Mine Emplacement in a Threat Environment (1 June 2000) (VVAF) – Pages: 89

and two of these are available on-line:

Microsoft Word – M-4 Landmines in the Gulf War.doc (dupuyinstitute.org)

Microsoft Word – M-5 Brief Survey of Mine Breaching.doc (dupuyinstitute.org)

We do make a few of our reports available on line and I should probably make more… but this is an administrative task that is not high on my to-do list (most administrative tasks are not high on my to-do list): TDI – The Dupuy Institute Publications

These were all contracted for, although we insisted on complete freedom in research and results (which we always do), especially as we were doing work for an advocacy group.

And then he contracted us to look at a complete landmine ban (both anti-personnel and anti-tank). Then of course, there is a big different between “dumb” mines, and “smart” and scatterable mines. This report is here:

Microsoft Word – THE MILITARY CONSEQUENCES OF A COMPLETE.doc (dupuyinstitute.org)

I gather a number of people at VVAF were pushing for a complete landmine ban. As we state in Executive Summary of our report:

“TDI believes that its analysis is accurate enough to support conclusions that a total “dumb” landmine ban, including all antitank mines of that nature, would make operational sense and should be part of the revolution in military affairs. Such a move would enhance US dynamic battlefield capabilities, would lessen the logistic burden, and may well reduce American casualties. For similar operations effectiveness reasons, the United States should also study the consequences of eventually supporting a ban on scatterable mines. That may have to be conditional on other major manufacturing nations joining such an initiative.”

And to grab the main points from our conclusions:

  1. The Dupuy Institute reiterates its recommendation that the United State support current efforts to implement an antipersonnel landmine ban.
  2. The Dupuy Institute is quite comfortable with extending the ban to include “dumb” antitank mines. Such a ban would not significantly reduce US capabilities. Furthermore, these weapons have already been effectively removed from US doctrinal use. The “dumb” mine is a weapon that will be used against US forces, rather than one that US forces will use.
  3. The banning of antitank SCATMINE systems is a more difficult issue. There is no question that there will be some loss of capability, although the degree is not easy to measure (more on this point in a subsequent post).
  4. If a revolution in military affairs is occurring, with the United States on the leading edge of the revolution, then the deployment of any conventional mine system is to our disadvantage. Fundamentally mines have more value to technologically inferior forces. They remain a simple, cheap, and easy means of attacking technologically sophisticated weapons systems while incurring little risk to the user.
  5. Because of the nature of most US operations, the US is more often on the offense in conventional warfare than it is on the defense. Furthermore, they are not weapons that the US, as a conventional force, would have much use for in a guerilla war.  It is not a weapon that the US has any use for in contingency operations, peacekeeping operations and operations other than war. The mine is still primarily a weapon of the defender and the guerilla. As such, any landmine bans fundamentally favor the US military and reduce casualties.
  6. The “Korean exception” appears to be a “red herring.” It appears that the prime reason for the US Army maintaining “dumb” antipersonnel mines in Korea is to stockpile them for South Korean use and that any planned use of the stockpiled mines by US forces is a very secondary consideration. Korea is not a strong argument for refusing to participate in a landmine ban.
  7. There appears to be a fairly clear dividing line between a mine and command detonated munition. Hornet and Claymore (as configured for US forces) would not be covered under a landmine ban. As such, banning landmines does not open the possibility that other US antipersonnel or antitank weapons would be lost in such a ban.

Recommendations:

  1. The Dupuy Institute again recommends that the US agree to an antipersonnel landmine ban.
  2. The Dupuy Institute recommends that the US agree to a “dumb” antitank landmine ban.
  3. The Dupuy Institute recommends that the US consider an antitank SCATMINE ban.

.    The Dupuy Institute understands that this would entail some loss in defensive capability, and possibly a minor loss in offensive capability. Still, the overall benefits of such a ban to US offensive capability – lower casualties and a reduced logistics tail – could make such a ban advantageous to US armed forces. This advantage would be predicated on at least partial, but not complete, effectiveness of such ban worldwide. Thus, the US may wish to make its participation in a ban on antitank SCATMINE systems conditional upon the participation of (or the participation of within a set period of time) certain other major manufacturing nations (i.e., Russia, China and India).

———–

Finally, amid all this mine work, we ended up doing a brief report for Los Alamos (a government laboratory). They had called to ask us some questions, and by the end of the conversation, they decided to give us a small contract. Marketing was so much easier back then.

The Los Alamos report is here: Microsoft Word – M-8 A Measure of the Real-World Value of Mixed Mine System– (dupuyinstitute.org)

So we ended up doing effectively six different reports on landmines for three different customers (JCS, VVAF, Los Alamos). This was going on the same time we were doing our Capture Rate Studies for CAA (which makes up the basis for several of my first chapters in War by Numbers) and were starting first of our three urban warfare studies for them (also two chapters in War by Numbers). It was an interesting collection of work and we greatly appreciated the support from Mark Perry. Since 2001, we have not done any work related to landmines. 

Mark Perry moved on to other tasks. I talked to him a few times after that about Middle East issues, but his focus was now more on political issues and our focus tends to be more on the nuts and bolts of defense issues, so we did not do any further work with him. He was a very good guy to work with. Sorry to see him go.

 

Mark Perry (and Landmine Restrictions)

I saw on Twitter yesterday that Mark Perry had passed away. I had not talked to him in over a decade, but we worked with him 20 years ago. Links to articles on him:

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/death-of-an-american-original-mark-perry-1950-2021/

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/08/08/rip-mark-perry-an-extraordinary-journalist-in-extraordinary-times/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Perry_(author)

Back in the fall of 1995 we did a casualty estimate for our proposed deployment to Bosnia for the JCS (Joint Chiefs of Staff). This estimate is republished in Appendix II of my book America’s Modern Wars. This was a short fuse project, and we turned it around in three weeks.

Apparently Lt. Gen. Wesley Clark was impressed with this effort so contracted us when the issue came up of how DOD should respond to the proposed international landline ban. We started the effort knowing it was short fuse, but was told a couple days into the effort that they needed the report next week. So we cranked out the research, analysis and subsequent report in 8 calendar days. The report was submitted to JCS in April 1996. I think we were paid around $30K for this effort.

Our conclusions were fourfold on an APM ban (anti-personnel mines):

1. What would happen if a ban on APM’s were universally observed?

This clearly favors the attacker. In most conceivable near-term contingencies, the US would be the advancing force; hence this would be advantageous to the US. Our present estimate is a US casualty reduction of 2 to 5 percent, if the campaign does not deteriorate into a US defensive mode. In the case of a guerilla war, the reduction might be as large as 20 percent, but the assumption that guerillas would observe such a ban may be correspondingly low.

2. What would happen if the US observed such a ban, but the opponent did not?

This clearly hurts the US – the only question is how much. A model applied to a Korean-type engagement, augmented by our historical examples, says the US would have suffered 3 percent more causalities. Fast maneuvering typified by the Gulf War could well exact a smaller percentage penalty. We may have a better answer in the next ten days. A really good answer might deserve 3 months or more.

3. What if the U.S. continues to use APM’s, but agrees any such weapons will routinely be promptly disabled or destroyed after battles?

From a purely combat viewpoint, this has the virtue of eliminating whatever increment in casualties would otherwise occur. Beyond this, this feature for APM’s can be valuable in combat.

4. What related capabilities can influence the combat consequences of an APM ban?

There are many, and a careful look at them might well greatly reduce the casualty cost of our unilateral observance of a ban. Improvements in our mine clearance facilities (of enemy mines) may be at the top of the list.

 

We submitted the report to JCS and the active duty Marine major who was the action officer in charge expressed surprise at the results. We heard no other feedback from JCS at that time.

Some eight months later, Nick Krawciw, the president of TDI, asked for the report and supporting material and then came up with a one page letter that he attached to the report and sent over on 2 January 1997 to General John Shalikashvili, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff. He asked him to: ”Please look at the attached page with four summary points which were added to our study and given to Wes Clark just before he left for his current assignment. In my estimation points 1, and 4. outweigh 2. and 3.. Therefore, I recommend that the United States support a total ban on antipersonnel mines. Our historical research, when coupled with probable future engagements, indicates that a total ban on this type of mine, if eventually adhered to by most nations, will only benefit the US ground forces in the long run.” 

Nick Krawciw (MG, USA, ret.) had served two tours in Vietnam, one around 1962 as an advisor and another up at the DMZ around 1968. There are pictures in my book America’s Modern Wars from his tours and the effects of a mine blast (now called IEDS – Improvised Explosive Devices) on the M-113 he was riding in.

Needless to say, his experiences in Vietnam reinforced the view that landlines are a weapon that is often used against the U.S. military and rarely used by us. Certainly the widespread use of IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan has reinforced that picture.

John Shalikashvili did respond on 6 February 1997, saying in part: “Your study and summary points have been used on several occasions in considering this issue. Concur in the conclusion that the United should support a total ban on APL [antipersonnel landmines].”

The United States ended up not supporting the anti-personnel landmine ban, which I think is a mistake.

Flash forward four years later and suddenly a couple of people showed up at our office looking for the “suppressed DOD report on the landmine ban.” Well, it was not suppressed. We were never given any restrictions on access to it and like almost all of our reports, it was publicly available for purchase. See http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/tdipub3.htm. It appeared that not too many people had gone looking for our open-source, unclassified, publicly available report; and we were quite surprised to discover that people considered it “suppressed.”

Then Mark Perry showed up representing The Vietnam Veteran of America Foundation (VVAF) which was actively involved in supporting the landmine ban. He asked if they could publish it. We agreed, they published it along with the two letters, distributed it and I think VVAF donated $10K to TDI in response.

And then Mark Perry, who lived down the road from our office in McLean, Va., came over to our office and asked us if we would do another little study for VVAF (more on this in my next post).

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 69

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

This is update number 69 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Missed doing one last week and this one is a day late. So this one covers 15 days. I am probably going to quit doing this on a weekly basis, unless there is demand for it. Instead update it a couple of times a month.

These last two weeks the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 6,806 new cases. The previous week was 940 new cases over the shortened week. The week before that it was 1,241 new cases over the week plus two days. The week before that it was 446 new cases. Twenty-eight weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Europe has lost control of the situation, with the UK and Spain particularly hard hit. This varies widely by country. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 7K new cases for Wednesday (and 5K for Tuesdays). The UK (pop. 67.1 million) has had an upswing that is still not completely under control. They are reporting 29K new cases Wednesday (and 22K on for Tuesday) but it is not as bad as it was two weeks ago. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January and they reached another peak on 17 July with 54K new cases in a day. It was down below 2K cases a day three months ago. France (pop. 67.4 million) has the fifth highest number of reported cases in the world (after U.S., India, Brazil and now Russia). They reported for France 29K new cases Wednesday (and 24K on Tuesday). The new case count yesterday for Spain has remained high with 22K new cases for Wednesday (and 20K for Tuesday). As for Germany it is only 4K new cases on Wednesday (and 2.5K cases on Tuesday) and for Russia it is 23K new cases on Wednesday (and 21K cases on Tuesday). Keep in mind, these are daily rates. They do add up over the course of a week. The U.S. (population 331.9 million) had 93K new cases on Wednesday (and 107K new cases on Tuesday). Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January and we hit another peak on 30 July of 195K. We did have it down to around 12K new cases a day in June.

In Asia and the Pacific the number of reported cases remains low for Wednesday/Tuesday: China remains low (87/104), Japan continues to rise (14,114/12,045), South Korea is stabilizing (1,776/1,723), Taiwan (21/19 after peaking at 723 on 5/22), Vietnam has boomed (7,295/16,954), Singapore has stabilized (95/102), Australia continues to rise (302/253) and New Zealand remains low (1/2). Again, these are daily rates.

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 7:21 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE. The table below for this week is based upon two less days.

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….49,827…..50,858……1,149
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,404…..15,727………258
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,972…..12,227………141
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……77,612.….78,955……1,126
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….430………432………….8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….568….……574………..19
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….28,292.….28,559……….283
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….46,069…..46,848……….514
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,325…….4,360……..…48
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,223…….1,232……..…11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960…….11,644…..11,986…………83
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..2,173.……2,230……..…25
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……71,538…..72,596…….1,634
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……86,014.…87,313…….1,607
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425.…407,091….413,897……6,906

The Mortality Rate is 1.67%. There were 20 fatalities in the last two weeks compared to 6,806 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.29%, which is very low. The population known to have been infected is 7.71% or one confirmed case for every 13 people.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,717, new cases yesterday and 1,403 new cases on Tuesday. Two weeks ago it was 721 new cases on Tuesday, the week before that it was 346 new cases on Tuesday and the week before that it was 132 cases. Twenty-six weeks ago it was 4,707.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has had 2,457 total cases (2,275 cases two weeks ago) and 10 deaths.

Sorting out the Tucson Race of March 20, 1915

Eddie Rickenbacker in his Maxwell racer at Tucson, Arizona in 1915.

Not the usual subjects I look at, but was trying sort out the results of the Tucson Indy-car race on March 20, 1915.

One internet source I have shows the 11 runners. It has George Clark leading the first lap and Barney Oldfield (THE Barney Oldfield) leading the next 23 laps.

See: https://www.racing-reference.info/race-results/1915_Tucson_Race/UO/

But apparently in the real world, Eddie Rickenbacher was leading the race for a while (THE Eddie Rickenbacher, America’s top ace in the Great War).

So, an article on 21 March 1915 in The Arizona Daily Star, says in part:

Dick Clarke, who many of the fans had picked as Tucson’s best bet, got the jump on the start and beat the [Hubbell’s] Mercer into the first turn. Oldfield started like a shot out of a cannon and led the [McVoy’s] Mitchell…Rickenbacker, driving the last Maxwell, was hardly around the second curve when the crowd commenced shouting “car coming!”….Doubt gave way to pandemonium as Dick Clarke shot past the stand, not only holding his own in first place but gaining. Six seconds later came another and the crowd went wild: it was the popular favorite Barney Oldfield who had passed the Mercer and was trying to catch the flying Stutz. 

This is the lap in which Oldfield averaged 72 miles an hour and caused his manager to flash a signal to him when he passed his pit to take it easy. According to his manager, nothing on four wheels was going to stand that pace for a hundred miles of the bumpy dirt track.

Clarke Eliminated

Two more laps for Clarke and then a painful wait which ended when were Clarke brothers were seen walking toward the grandstand. “Broken connecting rod,” said Dick….

Meanwhile Rickenbacker, who before the race had remarked he would “win or smash” was driving like a demon. In the eighth lap he was 29 seconds ahead of Barney who driving like mad to keep away from the other two Maxwells who were after him. But the jinx decided that it was not a Rickenbacker day and in the thirteenth lap the “win or smash” driver went to the pits. Loose radiator connection and flooded spark plugs. Seven valuable minutes were spent making repairs and away again like the wind.”

So, it does appear that Dick Clarke led for first 2 or 3 laps, and by lap 8 Rickenbacher was in the lead until lap 13. Oldfield took the lead for the rest of the race.

There is a stat chart for the race in the paper:

 

Rickenbacher does note in his book Rickenbacker: An Autobiography, on page 62 that:

“The Maxwell Automobile Company had entered the racing field with a 3-car team and one extra car. Two well-known drivers, Barney Oldfield and Bill Carson, had already signed on, and I was the third. My role was to burn up the track and wear down the opposition while Oldfield and Carlson, less aggressive drivers, would hopefully come on strong in the last laps and win the race. Though we knew that the Maxwells were not superior racing cars, we hoped to hold our own in them through determination and driving skill, and it did work out that way.”

 

Photo drawn from: https://www.firstsuperspeedway.com/photo-gallery/rickenbacker-maxwell-1915-lr4

 

P.S. Spelling contradictions:

  1. Dick Clarke is spelled Clark in other sources and also referred to as “George Clark.”
  2. The Swiss-American Rickenbacker actually spelled his name at this time as Rickenbacher. He changed the spelling in 1918 to be less German, or to “take the Hun out of his name.” But, the Tucson newspaper spelled it with a “ck” for this race.
  3. Adolph Rickenbacher, his distant cousin and a luthier, established in 1931 the company that made the Rickenbacker guitars. He also changed the spelling of his own name and guitar brand to match. These guitars were made famous by the Beatles, the Byrds and Tom Petty.

P.P.S.: Ads in Thursday’s, Friday;s and Saturday’s paper:

Federico José María Ronstadt was the grandfather of famous country and rock singer Linda Ronstadt.

P.P.P.S: An ad in the Sunday paper, day after the race:

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 68

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

This is really only a five-day update, as I was delayed two days last week because of clunky internet connection issues with the Johns Hopkins site. This is weekly update number 68 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased to 940 new cases over the shortened week. Last week is was 1,241 new cases over the week plus two days. The week before last it was 446 new cases. Twenty-six weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Europe appears to be losing control of the situation again, with the UK and Spain particularly hard hit. This varies widely by country. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 3,555 new cases for Tuesday. The UK (pop. 67.1 million) has had an upswing that seems to be sliding out of control. They are reporting 47K new cases Tuesday. This is new cases per day! Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. It was down below 2K cases a day two months ago. France (pop. 67.4 million) has the fifth highest number of reported cases in the world (after U.S., India, Brazil and now Russia). They reported for France 18K new cases Tuesday. The new case count yesterday for Spain has increased dramatically to 27K for Tuesday. As for Germany it is only 1,626 new cases Tuesday and for Russia it is 23K new cases a day. Keep in mind, these are daily rates. They do add up over the course of a week. The U.S. (population 331.9 million) had 43K new cases Tuesday, and it is continuing to rise. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. We did have it down to around 12K new cases a day in June, but it has been on the rise in July.

In Asia and the Pacific the number of reported cases remains low for Tuesday: China (7), Japan continues to rise (3,836), South Korea continues to rise (1,784), Taiwan (24, after peaking at 723 on 5/22), Vietnam continues to rise (5,427), Singapore is rising (195), Australia continues to rise (146) and New Zealand (6). Again, these are daily rates. Japan’s rate is pretty high for a country that is hosting the Olympics.

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 7:21 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE. The table below for this week is based upon two less days.

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….49,616…..49,827…..1,146
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,372…..15,404…….258
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,943…..11,972……..141
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……77,465…..77,612….1,124
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….430……….430………..8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….576…….…568………19
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….28,207…..28,292…….283
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….45,993.….46,069……..511
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,320…….4,325………48
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,222…….1,223………11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..11,610.….11,644………83
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144………2,165.…..2,173………25
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……71,396.…71,538…..1,628
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……85,836….86,014…..1,601
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425.…406,151…407,091…..6,886

The Mortality Rate is 1.69%. There were 4 fatalities in the last week compared to 940 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.43%. The low mortality rate appears to be caused by a lack of the reporting for the two counties in Maryland. The population known to have been infected is 7.59% or one confirmed case for every 13 people.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 721 new cases on Tuesday. Last week it was 346 new cases on Tuesday. The week before that it was 132 cases. Twenty-five weeks ago it was 4,707.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has had 2,275 cases (2,246 last week) and 10 deaths.

Things related to our discussion on invading Taiwan

Over the last month, we did something like eleven posts analyzing the possibilities and the ability of China to invade and occupy Taiwan. The summery post is here:
Will China invade Taiwan in the next 20 years? Summation: | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Just spotted a CNN article that is related: US Air Force to send dozens of F-22 fighter jets to the Pacific amid tensions with China

A few highlights:

  1. We are sending 25 F-22s to Guam and Tinian Islands (Northern Marianas).
  2. F-22’s are fifth-generation combat jets. China has 20-24. We have 180 F-22s (and then there are F-35s).
  3. Only about half of the F-22s “…are mission capable at any one time due to maintenance requirements.”
  4. 10 F-15s and 2 C-130Js are also deploying.

I copied the cover picture from the article. 

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 67

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

Like the Coronavirus, this weekly blog post never seems to end. It was delayed two days this week because of clunky internet connection issues with the Johns Hopkins site. Probably a limitation at my end. This is weekly update number 67 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased to 1,241 new cases over the week plus two days. Last week it was 446 new cases. Twenty-five weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Europe appears to be losing control of the situation again, with the UK and Spain particularly hard hit. This varies widely by country. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 1,530 new cases for Tuesday (just to keep the reporting consistent, and 2,473 cases on Thursday). The UK (pop. 67.1 million) has had an upswing that seems to be sliding out of control. They are reporting 37K new cases Tuesday (and 49K new cases yesterday). This is new cases per day! Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. It was down below 2K cases a day two months ago. France (pop. 67.4 million) has the fourth highest number of reported cases in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). They reported for France 7K new cases Tuesday (and 11K new cases yesterday). The new case count yesterday for Spain has increased dramatically to 44K for Tuesday. As for Germany it is only 1,027 new cases Tuesday and for Russia it is up to 24K new cases a day. Keep in mind, these are daily rates. They do add up over the course of a week. The U.S. (population 331.9 million) had 26K new cases Tuesday, and it is continuing to rise. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. In Asia and the Pacific the number of reported cases remains low for Tuesday: China (52 on 7/11), Japan is rising (2,396), South Korea continues to rise (1,615), Taiwan (29, after peaking at 723 on 5/22), Vietnam is rising (2,744 and is up to 4K yesterday), Singapore (26), Australia is rising (106) and New Zealand (4). Again, these are daily rates. Japan’s rate is pretty high for a country about to host the Olympics.

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 7/16, 9:21 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE. The table below for this week is based upon two extra days.

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….49,417….49,616……1,145
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,321….15,372………258
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,900…..11,943……..141
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……77,210….77,465…..1,124
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….430………430………..8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….574………576………19
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….28,100…..28,207…….283
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….45,847.….45,993…….510
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,317……4,320………48
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,222……1,222…..…11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..11,555….11,610…..…83
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144………2,158…..2,165…..…25
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……71,251….71,396…1,628
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……85,608….85,836…1,599
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425.…404,910…406,151…6,882

The Mortality Rate is 1.69%. There were 18 fatalities in the last week compared to 1,241 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.45%.  The population known to have been infected is 7.57% or one confirmed case for every 13 people.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 346 new cases on Tuesday. Last week it was 132 cases. Twenty-four weeks ago it was 4,707.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has had 2,246 cases (2,201 last week) and 10 deaths.

Excess Deaths in China

Still can’t get to the Johns Hopkins site to do my weekly update. Not sure why.

In the meantime, let me briefly address the issue of excess deaths in China, as that was not discussed in the Economist article.

An article of interest: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-02-deaths-china-covid-outbreak.html

Also see: https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/372/bmj.n415.full.pdf

Main points:

  1. This only looked at 1 January to 31 March 2020
  2. Overall deaths did not increase for most of China.
  3. Excess deaths were in Wuhan were 412 per 100,000.
    1. Or, to convert this to a meaningful number, population of the urban area of  Wuhan in 2018 was 8,896,900. 
      1. Population of the Prefecture is 11,081,000 in 2018.
      2. Population of the Metro area is 19 million.
    2. Therefore, excess deaths are at least 36,655 depending on which population is used.
  4. Outside of Wuhan city, the overall death rate was slightly lower. This is probably related to the lockdown.

I have not seen excess deaths calculations for all of China or excess death calculations after 31 March 2020. China reported as of last week 4,848 deaths. This is probably undercounted. The actual number of deaths in China from Coronavirus is probably in the tens of thousands and may exceed a hundred thousand. I have not seen evidence indicating that it is worse than that.

Excess Deaths in various countries

I am trying to get away from posting about the Coronavirus and spend my time talking about things like Afghanistan and insurgencies, but right now the Johns Hopkins Covid tracker is not opening, so I can’t do my weekly update. May have to wait until tomorrow to do that. So instead, let me point our a recent article in the Economist on excess deaths: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

A few highlights:
1. Mexico: Covid-19 deaths: 201,600; Excess deaths: 494,690

2. Russia: Covid-19 deaths: 97,200; Excess deaths: 494,610

3. Italy: Covid-19 deaths: 86,490; Excess deaths: 116,410

4. United States: Covid-19 deaths: 558,060; Excess deaths: 597,490

5. Britain: Covid-19 deaths:  150,920: Excess deaths 119.320

6. Belgium: Covid-19 deaths: 24,020; Excess deaths: 18,890

7. France: Covid-19 deaths: 102,290: Excess deaths: 81,690 

8. Germany: Covid-19 deaths; Excess deaths: 52,670

 

So, there appears to be:

  1. A number of countries that grossly underreport Covid-19 deaths. Mexico and Russia are two of the more extreme cases.
  2. There are a large number of countries where reported Covid-19 deaths and excess deaths are similar. This includes the United States and Spain.
  3. There are a number of countries where they are reporting more Covid-19 deaths then they have excess deaths. This is Britain, Belgium, France, Italy and Germany.
  4. And then there are countries like Japan and New Zealand where excess deaths is in the negative (for example New Zealand reports 30 Covid-19 deaths, while their excess deaths are -2,060. In the case of Japan is it -11,280 Excess deaths compared to 7,880 reported Covid-19 cases). There are 14 countries that report negative excess deaths during this time. This is not entirely surprising as shut downs reduce traffic, and vehicle accidents are a leading cause of death in most countries. 

China is not listed in this article.

Comparative Mortality Rates from Coronavirus by Nation

Split off the material on mortality rates into a separate blog post. As is already known, countries do not report or catch every case of Coronavirus. It appears in the case of the United States, the actual number of cases is 3 to 4 times higher than what is reported. For other countries (like Russia), the disparity is even higher. Mortality rates might be a more useful metric for measuring differences between counties, but even these are not consistently reported. On the other hand, they can be checked by doing a comparison of “excess deaths” in 2020 and 2021 compared to previous years. So far I have checked excess deaths and blogged about it for two countries, the United States, which was close to the figure for reported mortality figures; and for Russia, which has an excess death figure way higher than their reported mortality figures. The suspicion is that Russia has been covering up or discouraging reporting of deaths from coronavirus.  Anyhow, knowing this is not perfect or consistently reported data, here is a comparative mortality rates between various countries.

First I list the “top ten.” I may have missed a smaller country that I have not been watching. I then list a couple of other European countries. Then I list Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Next is the listing of the four Scandinavian countries. This comparison is interesting as Sweden took a different approach (no lockdown) compared to the other three. Finally, I list some selected East Asian countries. Mortality is calculate as the number reported killed per million population. The higher the figure, they worst they are doing.

Morality rate (people killed per million population) by country:

Country    Population   Deaths     Rate

San Marino   0.034                 90    2,647

Brazil         213.4            525,892    2,464

Belgium       11.6              25,194    2,172

Italy              59.2            127,952    2,161

Colombia     51.0           110,019     2,157

Argentina     45.8              96,983    2,118

UK                67.1            128,532    1,915

Mexico       126.0            233,958    1,857

U.S.             332.0           605,944     1,825

Spain            47.4              80,952    1,708

Russia:       146.2

  reported:                       137,718       942

  excess:                          460,000    3,146

 

 

France          67.4           111,426     1,653

Germany      83.2              91,122    1,095

 

Canada         38.3              26,344       688

Australia       25.8                   910         35

New Zealand   5.1                    26            5

 

Sweden         10.4              14,639     1,408

Denmark         5.8                 2,539        438

Norway           5.4                    796         147

Finland           5.5                     976        177

 

China        1,411.8                 4,848            3

S. Korea         51.7                 2,033          39

Japan         126.2                 14,847        118

Taiwan          23.5                     715          30

Vietnam        97.6                       97            1

Singapore       5.7                       36            6

 

This does seem to be the most useful measure of response to the Coronavirus. As can be seen, some countries have done a much better job than others. This does not seem to be tied to wealth. It does seem to be related to leadership, or lack thereof. 

Excess deaths blog posts:

Excess Deaths and Coronavirus | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Excess Mortality in Russia | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)