Mystics & Statistics

The Soviet General Staff study on Kursk compared to Unit Records (part 2 of 3 – Airplane Losses)

This is the second part of my comparison of the data provided in the Soviet General Staff study on Kursk that was prepared in March-April 1944 compared to the Second and Seventeenth Air Army records that I have.

Losses:

            There are one table on losses in the Soviet General Staff study on Kursk that relate to the Second and Seventeenth Air Army. They are provided below. I have broken it into two tables for this blog:

The Air Struggle Along the Enemy’s Main Axis

                             Air          Enemy Losses:

                             Battles   Fighter   Bomber  Total

5 July                       81           71           83         154

6 July                       64           40           65         105 

7 July                       74           44           78         122  

8 July                       65           54           52         106

9 July                       62           49           22           71

10-14 July              152         112           93         205

15-18 July               43           45           27           72

Totals                     541         415         420         835

 

                            Second Air Army Losses:   

                            Fighter  Bomber  Assault   Total

5 July                       36           15           27           78

6 July                       23           —             22           45

7 July                       24           —             13           37

8 July                       24             1           16           41

9 July                       16             1           15           32

10-14 July                49           14           75         138

15-18 July              (the figures in the line above cover from 10-18 July)  

Totals                       172           31         168         371

            Now, these figures have been discussed before. The losses of the German VIII Air Corps was 111 planes, vice the 835 claimed here. The losses of the Second Air Army according to the records we reviewed was 481 planes from 5 to 18 July: see Appendix IV, Table II.32 (page 1424) of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka), vice the 371 reported here. This report also does not include Seventeenth Air Army claims or losses. The Seventeenth Air Army’s losses were significant (182 planes). So, it does appear that the Soviet General Staff study basically leaves out 292 out of their 663 airplanes losses (44% of their losses), effectively under reporting their air losses by almost half.

       This is concerning, for it does appear that Soviet General Staff study is understating the Second Air Army losses, omitting the considerable losses from the Seventeenth Air Army and of course, grossly overclaiming the number of German aircraft shot down. This was in an internal classified report that was supposed to be an analysis of the battle. Hard to properly analyze if your data is not correct.

The Soviet General Staff study on Kursk compared to Unit Records (part 1 of 3 – Sortie Counts)

Yak-9 at war memorial, northeast of Yakovlevo, Belrorod-Oboyan road

For my on-going Aces at Kursk book I was asked by the publishers to include a Chapter on the air war in the north from 5-11 July 1943. For the original Kursk project we were able to access the Second and Seventeenth Air Army records in the south. We did not attempt to obtain the Sixteenth Air Army records at that time (1993-1995). Therefore I was forced to rely on the Soviet General Staff study on Kursk that was prepared in March-April 1944 for the count of sorties and losses. As the staff study also reported the sorties and losses from the south, and I had the records for the air armies involved in that, I decided to do a little comparison and added a write-up of this to an appendix of the book.

Sortie Counts (I left out the table of the sortie count from Soviet General Staff study) :

          The Soviet General Staff study data on sortie counts is similar to the data we have assembled. The data we have for the Second and Seventeenth Air Armies operations are taken directly from the daily air army reports as drawn from the archives. The Soviet General Staff study may used these same reports, or used higher level reports or other assembled reports for their study. But there are minor differences between ours and their reports, so most likely they used other higher level or assembled reports for their study. For example, we have the Second Air Army flying 1,296 daytime sorties on 5 July. The Soviet General Staff study has them flying 1,274. There are also minor differences the next two days, but the two sets of counts are the same for 8 and 9 July and then vary slightly for most of the subsequent days (except for the 15th and 16th, where they again match). After the 5th, the largest difference is on the 12th, where our reports record 10 more daytime sorties. These are very minor differences. The Second Air Army nighttime sorties match in all cases between the counts we assembled from the air army daily reports and what the Soviet General Staff study reports.

            The Seventeenth Air Army is a little more complex as some of their missions were flown into the battle area while other of their missions were flown completely out of the battle area defended by the Voronezh Front. For the Kursk database project, I ended up reviewing each reported mission as to where it operated and made a judgment as to whether this mission was in the area of the Belgorod offensive or not. It does not appear that the Soviet General Staff study did that. For the 5th through the 16th, their estimate more closely matches with the total number of sorties flown by the Seventeenth Air Army than it does with my lower count of the number of sorties flown in the battle area. On eight of those 12 days in question, their totals matches the total we drew from the Seventeenth Air Army daily reports. The day they most differ was on 7 July when they reported 50 more sorties than we counted. We did re-check the original report and our total is 639. Suspect their number of 689 is a typo. As the Soviet General Staff study may have been drawn from a later aggregate report, there are multiple opportunities for typos.

           On the other hand, in the table we assembled of Seventeenth Air Army daytime sorties we had a lower count for “only those that were in the Belgorod Area or attacked the VIII Air Corps” (see table in Chapter Four). It is consistently lower from the 5th through the 16th, which the worse variance being on the 7th, where we count 588 as valid sorties in the battle area, whereas the Soviet General Staff study reports 689. On the 17th we count none in the area and on the 18th we count 12 sorties.

           Still there are a couple of observations we can make from this comparison. First, is that the Soviet General Staff study reports of Soviet sorties flown is fairly accurate in that it matches with records we have from the Second and Seventeenth Air Armies. This is important to note as we rely on the Soviet General Staff study for the count of sorties for the Sixteenth Air Army.

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 34

Weekly update number 34 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 11,293 new cases. This is the largest weekly increase I have seen since I started tracking this for the DC area. Last week there were 8,625 new cases, the week before there were 7,348 new cases and the week before that 4,256 new cases. Around two months ago we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up. This has slide out of control and we are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 23K new cases reported for yesterday. It has gotten bad all across Europe, in the UK (11K cases yesterday), France (10K), Spain (12K), Germany (16K) and Russia (24K). These figures are noticeably lower than they were last week for every country listed except Russia. The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 173K new cases yesterday. This is in contrast to places like China (85 cases), Japan (1,232), South Korea (382), Taiwan (1 on 11/23), Vietnam (4), Singapore (18), Australia (10) and New Zealand (8). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 twenty-one weeks ago. It has since increased and appears to be heading back to its old level.. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:25 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….19,465……20,516……..677
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………5,512……..5,994…….157
Alexandria VA……………160,530.…..…4,768…..…5,106…..…77
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……..27,270……29,566..….620
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772……..…..85…………97………..7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……..…190……….205……….8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..………9,020…….9,717…….142
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011….…..16,283…..17,484…….236
Manassas…………………..41,641….……2,171….…2,250……..28
Manassas Park………….…17,307…………..686………713…….…8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………..2,851……3,134..……22
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.………..640………674…….…6
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….29,833……32,005……936
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….37,184…..39,790……913
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..155,958….167,251…3,837

This is a 7% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.29%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. Last week, there were 69 new fatalities reported out of 11,293 new cases. This is a mortality rate of more than 0.6%, although there is a lag between increases in reported cases and increases in mortality. The population known to have been infected is 3.12% or one confirmed case for every 32 people.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptying out this week due to Thanksgiving.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 3,397 cases (3,296 last week) and 37 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 2,176 cases (2,017 last week) and 35 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,823 confirmed cases (1,762 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,840 confirmed cases (1,742 last week) and 26 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 3,806 cases this week (3,502 last week) and 15 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 2,544 cases yesterday. This is sad and is on the increase. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down. Now it is definitely going up. 

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 597 cases (554 last week) and 4 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

Disputed Elections – week 15

Protests in Belarus continue as before. One protestor, 31 year old art teacher Roman Bondarenko, died last week in a hospital, probably as a result of a severe beating by plain clothes police officers (of course, their interior ministry denies this). His funeral on Friday was attended by 5,000 people and there were again tens of thousands of protestors this weekend in Minsk (see picture above). There were 345 protestors arrested/detained this weekend compared to over 900 last week. At least four protestors have died since the protests have begun.

The strike, which was called for on 26 October, has not really taken hold. So for now, it appears that Lukashenko has the advantage although there seems to be no end in sight for the protests. How long does this continue and what is the eventual outcome? 

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 33

Weekly update number 33 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 8,625 new cases. Last week there were 7,348 new cases and the week before 4,256 new cases. Around two months ago we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up. This is sliding out of control and we are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is in trouble with 32K new cases reported for yesterday. It is an amazing collapse of control from what they had. It has gotten bad all across Europe, in the UK (20K cases yesterday), France (46K), Spain (20K), Germany (26K) and Russia (22K)  The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 162K new cases yesterday. This is in contrast to places like China (13 cases), Japan (1,690), South Korea (313), Taiwan (2), Vietnam (5), Singapore (6), Australia (19) and New Zealand (3). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 twenty weeks ago. It has since increased and appears to be heading back to its old level.. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 1:26 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….18,379…..19,465……..665
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………5,130……5,512……..156
Alexandria VA……………160,530………4,559……4,768………76
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……..25,791….27,270….….611
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…………..82………85…………7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…………178……..190…….….8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….…..8,560……9,020……..136
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….15,462…16,283…..…230
Manassas…………………..41,641…..……2,116…..2,171……….28
Manassas Park………….…17,307..….…….676……..686…………8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….2,661……2,851……….22
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…….….624…..…640…………6
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….27,969.…29,833……..916
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….35,146….37,184….…899
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..147,333…155,958….3,768

This is a 6% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.42%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. Last week, there were 56 new fatalities reported out of 8,625 new cases. This is a mortality rate of more than 0.6%, although there is a lag between increases in reported cases and increases in mortality. The population known to have been infected is 2.91% or one confirmed case for every 34 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 3,296 cases (3,224 last week) and 36 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 2,017 cases (1,933 last week) and 31 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,762 confirmed cases (1,697 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,742 confirmed cases (1,682 last week) and 26 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They had been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last few weeks, so the number of new cases has declined and stayed down. So far, they have been doing a decent job at containing this.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 3,502 cases this week (3,295 last week) and 10 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 2,125 cases yesterday. This is sad and is on the increase. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down. Now it is definitely going up. 

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 554 cases (463 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

Results from the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

This six-week war is now over. It was effectively a two-week war with a four-week poorly maintained ceasefire. Now I gather a more permanent ceasefire is in place, with 2,000 Russian troops placed between the warring factions. Russia is not entirely a neutral player here, having somewhat favored Armenia while Turkey supported Azerbaijan. But as Azerbaijan clearly won this round (and this has been going of and on since 1988) and took territory, then I suspect it is resolved for now. The president of Azerbaijan is touring the battlefield (his conquests) while the government of Armenia is in turmoil with several ministers resigning. Most governments don’t do very well after they lose a war and are usually replaced.

The big story from this war was the extensive use of drones and loitering munitions. These things trashed dozens of tanks, probably well over a 100. There are multiple videos of them, and some people have assembled body counts based upon these videos. I gather Armenia has stated that their losses are 2,317 killed, with other reports indicating 21 captured and several hundred missing. There are also losses from the Republic of Artsakh. Azerbaijan also suffered hundreds of losses and it may have been as high as 1,500, based upon an interpretation of a statement from the President of Azerbaijan. There were also Syrian fighters or mercenaries, which an outside agency reported 293 deaths. There were also civilian casualties. Overall, it looks like this conflict resulted in the deaths of at least 4,000 people and maybe over 5,000.

Losses in latest Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

It does open a few questions. 

  1. Is that main battle tank antiquated?
  2. Are drones the air force of the future?
  3. Is this simply the result of conducting a war with air superiority?

This last point is important. Is what happened to Armenia in this war any different to what happened to Iraq in 1991? How does the efficacy and efficiency of the air campaign in the 1991 Gulf War compare to this conflict? The answer to this question certainly influences the answer to the first two questions. Is this just another example of the advantage of air supremacy, or is there a bigger lesson here?

The second point about drones also needs to be examined in some depth. It does not appear that Armenia had an effective air defense or good countermeasures against the drones. What would have been the difference if they did? Azerbaijan does have an air force, which took some loses, but their primarily prosecuted their air-to-ground campaign using drones. This may have been the poor mans or the cost-effective way of doing this. They could purchase a lot of relatively inexpensive drones and effectively prosecute and air-to-ground campaign to a degree that they could not have done using considerably less expensive manned aircraft. This does lead to the question, is an air force of drones much cheaper in the long run than an air force of manned aircraft? In the end, budget is always a limiting factor, so do drones simply give you more bang for the buck? So, from an analytical point of view, we are not just looking at a comparison of which is better, an air force of mostly drones or mostly manned aircraft; but also which is cheaper. This is potentially a fairly complex piece of analysis.

All this eventually gets to the first question, which is “Is the main battle tank antiquated?” I am not sure how you answer that question until you have answered the other two questions. 

 

Disputed Elections – week 14

Another round of protests this weekend in Belarus. Tens of thousands protesting and 900+ arrested/detained. It does not appear that there were the 100,000+ protestors that used to show up; and it does not appear that the strike, which was called for on 26 October, has taken hold. So for now, it appears that Lukashenko has the advantage. 

You can build a throne with bayonets , but it’s difficult to sit on it.

Boris Yeltsin
— Televised speech (4 October 1993), as quoted in A Democracy of Despots (1995) by Donald Murray. p. 8

Now, earlier versions of similar quotes have been attributed to Tallyrand (1754-1838) or Joseph Bonaparte (1768-1844) when he was the King of Spain (1808-1813). But, as we have seen in Syria and many other places, people can remain in power for quite some time after suppressing a popular revolt.

Meanwhile, small protests continue in Khabarovsk (200-500 people at a rally on 14 November) and larger protests continue in Tbilisi, Georgia (thousands on 14 November). These are much smaller than before.

Finally, Russia has become the peacekeepers for the latest Nagorno-Kharabakh conflict, deploying some 2,000 troops into this region of the Caucasus for at least the next five years. 

 

 

 

P.S. The picture of the detained protestor is from last month, I just happen to like it (“Beauty and the Beast”). She was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews

“Our enemies generally shoot first 80 percent of the time”

Someone just asked me about a quote in the following article:
https://breakingdefense.com/2020/11/army-wants-smaller-brigades-stronger-divisions-lots-of-robots/

The quote is:

“Historical data on direct-fire engagements “shows that our enemies generally shoot first 80 percent of the time,” Sando said. “We don’t like those odds, [so] we want to avoid the close fight if we can. If we can’t avoid it, we want to enter it under conditions that are favorable to us.”

The question was: did this statistic come from us or do we know where it came from? Well, it definitely did not come from our work or Trevor Dupuy’s work. I have never heard of such a claim before.

Does anyone know where this came from? Is there some study or piece of quantitative historical analysis that this claim is based upon. I have my doubts about the accuracy of this claim.

If the data was drawn from unconventional (recent) warfare scenarios, then by nature of those conflicts, the insurgents initiate engagements more often than the counterinsurgents do. Not sure it would be as high as 4-to-1.

If it was drawn from conventional war scenarios, then by their nature it should be 50/50, unless you are always the attacker. Even then I am not it would be as high as 4-to-1.

 

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 32

Weekly update number 32 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 7,348 new cases. Last week there were 4,256 new cases. Over a month ago we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up. This is sliding out of control and we are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is in trouble with 35K new cases reported for yesterday. It is an amazing collapse of control from what they had. It has gotten bad all across Europe, in the UK (20K cases yesterday), France (61K on 6 Nov), Spain (21K on 9 Nov), Germany (27K) and Russia (21K)  The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 136K new cases yesterday. This is in contrast to places like China (43 cases on 8 Nov), Japan (1,296), South Korea (146), Taiwan (2), Vietnam (11), Singapore (9), Australia (2) and New Zealand (1). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 nineteen weeks ago. It has since increased and appears to be heading back to its old level.. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:25 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….17,524……18,379……..657
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……..4,813……..5,130……..155
Alexandria VA……………160,530………4,377……..4,559………76
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….24,458..….25,791…….609
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….78…………82……….7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………..165…..……178……….8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….….8,105……..8,560……134
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……14,768..…..15.462……227
Manassas…………………..41,641…..……2,066…..…2,116…….28
Manassas Park………….…17,307..….…….662………..676……..8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….2,480.….…2,661…….22
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…….….603………..624…..…6
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….26,398…..27,969……899
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….33,488…..35,146……876
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..139,985….147,333…3,712

This is a 5% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.52%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. Last week, there were 61 new fatalities reported out of 7,348 new cases. This is a mortality rate of less than 0.8%, although there is a lag between increases in reported cases and increases in mortality. The population known to have been infected is 2.75% or one confirmed case for every 36 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 3,224 cases (3,146 last week) and 35 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,933 cases (1,827 last week) and 29 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,697 confirmed cases (1,626 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,682 confirmed cases (1,619 last week) and 24 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They had been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last few weeks, so the number of new cases has declined and stayed down. So far, they have been doing a decent job at containing this.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 3,295 cases this week (3,009 last week) and 7 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million)  is still running around 1,000 cases a day (1,435 yesterday) and it seems to be increasing.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 463 cases (396 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow.

Disputed Elections – week 13

Well, from this very distant and poorly informed vantage point, things do not look good for the protest movement in Belarus. Tens of thousands protested again this weekend, but Lukashenko has detained or arrested more than 800 protestors and maybe more than a thousand. He has been arresting 200-300 each week, but this appears to be an increase in aggressiveness on the part of the government. They were very aggressive in the first week of protests with nearly 7,000 detained, but this seemed to fuel the protests. They then backed down and kept their detentions and arrests at a lower level. The fact that they have increased arrests now indicates to me that the government has grown more confident and thinks they can increase the pressure on the protestors and put an end to this.

Two weeks ago, and in a number of weeks before that, the opposition put out more than 100,000 protestors each weekend. They also called for strikes two weeks ago. I gather the strikes have not been widespread and the number of protestors in the street has been well less than 100,000 this weekend and on the previous weekend. Nobody seems to be reporting figures anymore on this, which I think is kind of significant. With the strikes not being widespread and universal, the number of protestors diminishing, and the arrests increasing, it appears that the balance has shifted towards Lukashenko and against the opposition.

By the way, there were also protests in Georgia this weekend (the Georgia mentioned in the Beatles’ song, not the Ray Charles’ song). The Georgian police fired water cannons at hundred of protestors calling for a re-run of the Oct. 31 parliamentary elections, which they claim were rigged. They also had tens of thousands of protestors this weekend and protests are continuing.

 

P.S. The picture of the detained protestor is from last month, I just happen to like it (“Beauty and the Beast”). She was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews