Mystics & Statistics

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 33

Weekly update number 33 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 8,625 new cases. Last week there were 7,348 new cases and the week before 4,256 new cases. Around two months ago we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up. This is sliding out of control and we are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is in trouble with 32K new cases reported for yesterday. It is an amazing collapse of control from what they had. It has gotten bad all across Europe, in the UK (20K cases yesterday), France (46K), Spain (20K), Germany (26K) and Russia (22K)  The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 162K new cases yesterday. This is in contrast to places like China (13 cases), Japan (1,690), South Korea (313), Taiwan (2), Vietnam (5), Singapore (6), Australia (19) and New Zealand (3). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 twenty weeks ago. It has since increased and appears to be heading back to its old level.. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 1:26 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….18,379…..19,465……..665
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………5,130……5,512……..156
Alexandria VA……………160,530………4,559……4,768………76
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……..25,791….27,270….….611
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…………..82………85…………7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…………178……..190…….….8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….…..8,560……9,020……..136
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….15,462…16,283…..…230
Manassas…………………..41,641…..……2,116…..2,171……….28
Manassas Park………….…17,307..….…….676……..686…………8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….2,661……2,851……….22
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…….….624…..…640…………6
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….27,969.…29,833……..916
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….35,146….37,184….…899
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..147,333…155,958….3,768

This is a 6% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.42%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. Last week, there were 56 new fatalities reported out of 8,625 new cases. This is a mortality rate of more than 0.6%, although there is a lag between increases in reported cases and increases in mortality. The population known to have been infected is 2.91% or one confirmed case for every 34 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 3,296 cases (3,224 last week) and 36 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 2,017 cases (1,933 last week) and 31 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,762 confirmed cases (1,697 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,742 confirmed cases (1,682 last week) and 26 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They had been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last few weeks, so the number of new cases has declined and stayed down. So far, they have been doing a decent job at containing this.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 3,502 cases this week (3,295 last week) and 10 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 2,125 cases yesterday. This is sad and is on the increase. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down. Now it is definitely going up. 

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 554 cases (463 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

Results from the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

This six-week war is now over. It was effectively a two-week war with a four-week poorly maintained ceasefire. Now I gather a more permanent ceasefire is in place, with 2,000 Russian troops placed between the warring factions. Russia is not entirely a neutral player here, having somewhat favored Armenia while Turkey supported Azerbaijan. But as Azerbaijan clearly won this round (and this has been going of and on since 1988) and took territory, then I suspect it is resolved for now. The president of Azerbaijan is touring the battlefield (his conquests) while the government of Armenia is in turmoil with several ministers resigning. Most governments don’t do very well after they lose a war and are usually replaced.

The big story from this war was the extensive use of drones and loitering munitions. These things trashed dozens of tanks, probably well over a 100. There are multiple videos of them, and some people have assembled body counts based upon these videos. I gather Armenia has stated that their losses are 2,317 killed, with other reports indicating 21 captured and several hundred missing. There are also losses from the Republic of Artsakh. Azerbaijan also suffered hundreds of losses and it may have been as high as 1,500, based upon an interpretation of a statement from the President of Azerbaijan. There were also Syrian fighters or mercenaries, which an outside agency reported 293 deaths. There were also civilian casualties. Overall, it looks like this conflict resulted in the deaths of at least 4,000 people and maybe over 5,000.

Losses in latest Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

It does open a few questions. 

  1. Is that main battle tank antiquated?
  2. Are drones the air force of the future?
  3. Is this simply the result of conducting a war with air superiority?

This last point is important. Is what happened to Armenia in this war any different to what happened to Iraq in 1991? How does the efficacy and efficiency of the air campaign in the 1991 Gulf War compare to this conflict? The answer to this question certainly influences the answer to the first two questions. Is this just another example of the advantage of air supremacy, or is there a bigger lesson here?

The second point about drones also needs to be examined in some depth. It does not appear that Armenia had an effective air defense or good countermeasures against the drones. What would have been the difference if they did? Azerbaijan does have an air force, which took some loses, but their primarily prosecuted their air-to-ground campaign using drones. This may have been the poor mans or the cost-effective way of doing this. They could purchase a lot of relatively inexpensive drones and effectively prosecute and air-to-ground campaign to a degree that they could not have done using considerably less expensive manned aircraft. This does lead to the question, is an air force of drones much cheaper in the long run than an air force of manned aircraft? In the end, budget is always a limiting factor, so do drones simply give you more bang for the buck? So, from an analytical point of view, we are not just looking at a comparison of which is better, an air force of mostly drones or mostly manned aircraft; but also which is cheaper. This is potentially a fairly complex piece of analysis.

All this eventually gets to the first question, which is “Is the main battle tank antiquated?” I am not sure how you answer that question until you have answered the other two questions. 

 

Disputed Elections – week 14

Another round of protests this weekend in Belarus. Tens of thousands protesting and 900+ arrested/detained. It does not appear that there were the 100,000+ protestors that used to show up; and it does not appear that the strike, which was called for on 26 October, has taken hold. So for now, it appears that Lukashenko has the advantage. 

You can build a throne with bayonets , but it’s difficult to sit on it.

Boris Yeltsin
— Televised speech (4 October 1993), as quoted in A Democracy of Despots (1995) by Donald Murray. p. 8

Now, earlier versions of similar quotes have been attributed to Tallyrand (1754-1838) or Joseph Bonaparte (1768-1844) when he was the King of Spain (1808-1813). But, as we have seen in Syria and many other places, people can remain in power for quite some time after suppressing a popular revolt.

Meanwhile, small protests continue in Khabarovsk (200-500 people at a rally on 14 November) and larger protests continue in Tbilisi, Georgia (thousands on 14 November). These are much smaller than before.

Finally, Russia has become the peacekeepers for the latest Nagorno-Kharabakh conflict, deploying some 2,000 troops into this region of the Caucasus for at least the next five years. 

 

 

 

P.S. The picture of the detained protestor is from last month, I just happen to like it (“Beauty and the Beast”). She was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews

“Our enemies generally shoot first 80 percent of the time”

Someone just asked me about a quote in the following article:
https://breakingdefense.com/2020/11/army-wants-smaller-brigades-stronger-divisions-lots-of-robots/

The quote is:

“Historical data on direct-fire engagements “shows that our enemies generally shoot first 80 percent of the time,” Sando said. “We don’t like those odds, [so] we want to avoid the close fight if we can. If we can’t avoid it, we want to enter it under conditions that are favorable to us.”

The question was: did this statistic come from us or do we know where it came from? Well, it definitely did not come from our work or Trevor Dupuy’s work. I have never heard of such a claim before.

Does anyone know where this came from? Is there some study or piece of quantitative historical analysis that this claim is based upon. I have my doubts about the accuracy of this claim.

If the data was drawn from unconventional (recent) warfare scenarios, then by nature of those conflicts, the insurgents initiate engagements more often than the counterinsurgents do. Not sure it would be as high as 4-to-1.

If it was drawn from conventional war scenarios, then by their nature it should be 50/50, unless you are always the attacker. Even then I am not it would be as high as 4-to-1.

 

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 32

Weekly update number 32 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 7,348 new cases. Last week there were 4,256 new cases. Over a month ago we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up. This is sliding out of control and we are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is in trouble with 35K new cases reported for yesterday. It is an amazing collapse of control from what they had. It has gotten bad all across Europe, in the UK (20K cases yesterday), France (61K on 6 Nov), Spain (21K on 9 Nov), Germany (27K) and Russia (21K)  The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 136K new cases yesterday. This is in contrast to places like China (43 cases on 8 Nov), Japan (1,296), South Korea (146), Taiwan (2), Vietnam (11), Singapore (9), Australia (2) and New Zealand (1). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 nineteen weeks ago. It has since increased and appears to be heading back to its old level.. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:25 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….17,524……18,379……..657
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……..4,813……..5,130……..155
Alexandria VA……………160,530………4,377……..4,559………76
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….24,458..….25,791…….609
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….78…………82……….7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………..165…..……178……….8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….….8,105……..8,560……134
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……14,768..…..15.462……227
Manassas…………………..41,641…..……2,066…..…2,116…….28
Manassas Park………….…17,307..….…….662………..676……..8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….2,480.….…2,661…….22
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…….….603………..624…..…6
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….26,398…..27,969……899
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….33,488…..35,146……876
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..139,985….147,333…3,712

This is a 5% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.52%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. Last week, there were 61 new fatalities reported out of 7,348 new cases. This is a mortality rate of less than 0.8%, although there is a lag between increases in reported cases and increases in mortality. The population known to have been infected is 2.75% or one confirmed case for every 36 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 3,224 cases (3,146 last week) and 35 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,933 cases (1,827 last week) and 29 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,697 confirmed cases (1,626 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,682 confirmed cases (1,619 last week) and 24 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They had been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last few weeks, so the number of new cases has declined and stayed down. So far, they have been doing a decent job at containing this.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 3,295 cases this week (3,009 last week) and 7 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million)  is still running around 1,000 cases a day (1,435 yesterday) and it seems to be increasing.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 463 cases (396 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow.

Disputed Elections – week 13

Well, from this very distant and poorly informed vantage point, things do not look good for the protest movement in Belarus. Tens of thousands protested again this weekend, but Lukashenko has detained or arrested more than 800 protestors and maybe more than a thousand. He has been arresting 200-300 each week, but this appears to be an increase in aggressiveness on the part of the government. They were very aggressive in the first week of protests with nearly 7,000 detained, but this seemed to fuel the protests. They then backed down and kept their detentions and arrests at a lower level. The fact that they have increased arrests now indicates to me that the government has grown more confident and thinks they can increase the pressure on the protestors and put an end to this.

Two weeks ago, and in a number of weeks before that, the opposition put out more than 100,000 protestors each weekend. They also called for strikes two weeks ago. I gather the strikes have not been widespread and the number of protestors in the street has been well less than 100,000 this weekend and on the previous weekend. Nobody seems to be reporting figures anymore on this, which I think is kind of significant. With the strikes not being widespread and universal, the number of protestors diminishing, and the arrests increasing, it appears that the balance has shifted towards Lukashenko and against the opposition.

By the way, there were also protests in Georgia this weekend (the Georgia mentioned in the Beatles’ song, not the Ray Charles’ song). The Georgian police fired water cannons at hundred of protestors calling for a re-run of the Oct. 31 parliamentary elections, which they claim were rigged. They also had tens of thousands of protestors this weekend and protests are continuing.

 

P.S. The picture of the detained protestor is from last month, I just happen to like it (“Beauty and the Beast”). She was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews

Jeschonnek’s Suicide – 18 August 1943

General Hans Jeschonnek, the Chief of Staff of the Luftwaffe, committed suicide on 18 August 1943. This account has been garbled in a number of books, so here is my current write-up on the story:

Post-Mortem

General Hans Jeschonnek’s attempts to escape to the field by taking over command of the Fourth Air Fleet had failed. After the British bombing of Hamburg on 24/25 July, Goering decided that Jeschonnek would remain as chief of staff. Trapped in an impossible job, Jeschonnek was also affected by the recent loss of his father, brother, and brother-in-law. On the night of 17 August, the RAF bombed the missile base at Peenemuende.[1]

Jeschonnek had already displayed considerable sensitivity, having almost had a nervous breakdown in November 1941 and spending three days in bed after General Udet (the famous World War I ace) had committed suicide and General Wilberg and the famous ace Major Moelders had been killed in separate air crashes while flying to Udet’s funeral. He had also previously attempted suicide himself. During the day of 18 August, the young chief of staff wrote a number of suicide notes, including one short note that said “I can no longer work together with the Reichsmarschall [Goering]. Long live the Fuehrer!” He also wrote a memorandum to Hitler that was critical of his boss, Goering. He then shot himself in his office on the command train of the Luftwaffe, in what is now Goldap, Poland (at the time part of East Prussia). It was near Hitler’s command post, the Wolf’s Lair in East Prussia.[2] He was 44 years old.

 

 

[1] There is a claim in many accounts that Adolf Hitler called Jeschonnek on the afternoon of 17 August or the morning of 18 August to again criticize the Luftwaffe, telling him “You know what to do” or “You know what is left for you to do now.” This story apparently comes from Field Marshal Erhard Milch, the Air Inspector General, who testified that Jeschonnek had a story stormy session with Hitler. This entire story is disputed and dismissed by Prof. Richard Suchenwirth, Command and Leadership in the German Air Force (USAF Historical Division, Aerospace Studies Institute, Air University, July 1969), page 288. Suchenwirth states “It is untrue, as Milch has claimed, that Jeschonnek had had a heated discussion with Hitler on the afternoon preceding his suicide, during which Hitler had told him that the failures were his responsibility and that he “ought to know now what was expect of him.” This account is denied by those who were best informed about the situation.”

[2] Suchenwirth, pages 284-290. Many accounts state that Jeschonnek committed suicide at Hitler’s command post, the Wolf’s Lair in East Prussia, on 18 or 19 January 1943. His gravestone gives his date of death as 18 January 1943 (see https://ww2gravestone.com/people/jeschonnek-hans/). The date of his death was officially posted as 19 January 1943 by Hermann Goering to disconnect it from the Peenemunde bombing so as to hide the manner and reason for his death. They also published that he died from a hemorrhage of the stomach.

 

One does note that some otherwise credible accounts still give the date of his death as 19 August 1943: for example:

http://www.ww2.dk/Lw%20Offz%20-%20G-K%20Apr%202020%20.pdf

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 31

Weekly update number 31 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 4,256 new cases. Last week there were 4,326 new cases. Over a month ago we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is in trouble with 28K new cases reported for yesterday. It is an amazing collapse of control from what they had. It has gotten bad across Europe, in the UK (20K cases yesterday), France (46K on 1 Nov), Spain (19K), Germany (18K on 2 Nov) and Russia (18K)  The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 92K new cases yesterday. This is in contrast to places like China (55 cases on 2 Nov), Japan (878), South Korea (118), Taiwan (4), Vietnam (10), Singapore (9), Australia (12) and New Zealand (3). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 eighteen weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 7:24 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….16,973..…17,524……647
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……..4,630……4,813……154
Alexandria VA……………160,530……..4,269…….4,377……..74
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….23,648.…24,458..…604
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….75………78……….7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………..159…….165…..…..8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….….7,876…..8,105……132
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……14,235…14,768..…223
Manassas…………………..41,641…..…..2,045….2,066…..…27
Manassas Park………….…17,307..….……648….…662……….8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….2,373….2,480.……22
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…….….588……603………6
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….25,562…26,398…..876
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….32,648…33,488…..863
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..135,729..139,985..3,651

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.61%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. Last week, there were only 15 new fatalities reported out of 4,256 new cases. This is a mortality rate of less than 0.4%. The population known to have been infected is 2.61% or one confirmed case for every 38 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 3,146 cases (3,040 last week) and 35 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,827 cases (1,764 last week) and 27 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,626 confirmed cases (1,597 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,619 confirmed cases (1,585 last week) and 24 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They had been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last few weeks, so the number of new cases has declined and stayed down. So far, they have been doing a decent job at containing this.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 3,009 cases this week (2,788 last week) and 5 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million)  is still running around 1,000 cases a day (1,261 yesterday). This has been the case for months. It does not seem to want to establish a steady downward trend, but at least it is not going up (maybe).

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 396 cases (370 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow.

Speaking of Disputed Elections (Belarus – week 12)

Nothing really new to report. Same-old-same-old. Tens of thousands of protestors this weekend, a couple of hundred protestors arrested, and the situation continues as before. It does not appear that either side is making much progress. It is not ramping up to push Lukashenko from power, and it is not dying down. On the other hand, the protest estimates for this weekend seems to be around 20,000 vice the hundred thousand they had on some weekends.

I have still not seen any analysis as to whether extended protests result in a higher probability of replacing the existing government. I guess this is something I could do if I wanted to stop work on my books for the next six months. 

Anyhow, this protest has now gone on for three months, which is about as long as the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine went (2013-2014).

 

P.S. On the morning of 13 October Svetlana Tikhanovksaya, the main opposition leader, issued out a statement:

“The regime has 13 days to fulfill three prerequisites:

  1. Lukashenko must announce his resignation.

  2. Street violence must stop completely.

  3. All political prisoners must be released.

If our demands are not met by October 25, the whole country will peacefully take to the streets with the People’s Ultimatum. And on October 26, a national strike of all enterprises will begin, all roads will be blocked, sales in state stores will collapse.”

P. P.S. The picture of the detained protestor is from last month, I just happen to like it (“Beauty and the Beast”). She was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews

Losses in latest Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Below is an article on the counts of losses from Nagorno-Karabakh. It is based upon viewing of drone footage, etc. by individuals some distance from the conflict. The numbers should be viewed with considerable caution. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2020/09/the-fight-for-nagorno-karabakh.html

They state: “This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is undoubtedly higher than recorded here.” 

 

Anyhow, their count is:

………………………….Artsakh/Armenia……..Azerbaijan
Tanks……………………………..177………….26

AFVs……………………………….34………….11

IFVs………………………………..42………….24

Aircraft and Helicopters…………..0…………..10

Towed Artillery…………………..138

SP Artillery………………………..17

MLRS……………………………..72

Trucks, vehicles and jeeps……408………….21