Mystics & Statistics

TDI and the TNDM

The Dupuy Institute does occasionally make use of a combat model developed by Trevor Dupuy called the Tactical Numerical Deterministic Model (TNDM). That model is a development of his older model the Quantified Judgment Model (QJM). 
 
There is an impression, because the QJM is widely known, that the TNDM is heavily involved in our work. In fact, over 90% of our work has not involved the TNDM. Here a list of major projects/publications that we done since 1993.
 
Based upon TNDM:
Artillery Suppression Study – study never completed (1993-1995)
Air Model Historical Data feasibility study (1995)
Support contract for South African TNDM (1996?)
International TNDM Newsletter (1996-1998, 2009-2010)
TNDM sale to Finland (2002?)
FCS Study – 2 studies (2006)
TNDM sale to Singapore (2009)
Small-Unit Engagement Database (2011)
 
Addressed the TNDM:
Bosnia Casualty Estimate (1995) – used the TNDM to evaluate one possible scenario
Casualty Estimation Methodologies Study (2005) – was two of the six methodologies tested
Data for Wargames training course (2016)
War by Numbers (2017) – addressed in two chapters out of 20
 
Did not use the TNDM: 
Kursk Data Base (1993-1996)
Landmine Study for JCS (1996)
Combat Mortality Study (1998)
Record Keeping Survey (1998-2000)
Capture Rate Studies – 3 studies (1998-2001)
Other Landmine Studies – 6 studies (2000-2001)
Lighter Weight Armor Study (2001)
Urban Warfare – 3 studies (2002-2004)
Base Realignment studies for PA – 3 studies (2003-2005)
Chinese Doctrine Study (2003)
Situational Awareness Study (2004)
Iraq Casualty Estimate (2004-2005)
The use of chemical warfare in WWI – feasibility study (2005?)
Battle of Britain Data Base (2005)
1969 Sino-Soviet Conflict (2006)
MISS – Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets (2006-2009)
Insurgency Studies – 11 studies/reports (2007-2009)
America’s Modern Wars (2015)
Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (2015)
The Battle of Prokhorovka (2019)
Aces at Kursk (2021)
More War by Numbers (2022?)
 
 
Our bread and butter was all the studies that “did not use the TNDM.” Basically the capture rate studies, the urban warfare studies and the insurgencies studies kept us steadily funded for year after year. We would have not been able to maintain TDI on the TNDM. We had one contract in excess of $100K in 1994-95 (the Artillery Suppression study) and our next TNDM related contract that was over $100K was in 2005.
 
  

Excess Deaths and Coronavirus

One of the issues with evaluating the impact of Coronavirus is that determining the cause of death is at best uncertain, and varies depending on who is counting and what the rules are. The example I have used several times is the difference between Belgium (pop. 11.5 million), which has 181,511 reported cases and 10,278 deaths compared to Germany (pop. 83.1 million) which was 344,487 cases and 9,724 deaths. The coronavirus statistics are even more confusing for those countries will poor reporting systems or who deliberately manipulate the statistics. In the end, it will be an analysis of “excess deaths” that may really explain what has happened.

There is an excess death study done by the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC). The links to that are here:
ttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Also see the article summarizing a study at Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) that indicates that the number of deaths from coronavirus may be 50% higher: 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/10/12/us-covid-deaths-75-k-more-americans-died-than-previously-recorded-excess-deaths/5935813002/

Study is here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761?guestAccessKey=92828e1e-363a-491b-83af-ec3ce0cde3f6&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=101220

The actual number of reported cases for the U.S. (as of this morning) is 216,933. These studies strongly indicates that the U.S. reporting of deaths of somewhat close to reality. It is not an inflated count. It may be underreporting the extent of the tragedy.

I assume similar studies have been done for Belgium and Germany. An article addressing excess deaths in both countries is here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/10/15/how-excess-mortality-in-2020-compares-infographic/#5ed4902f67a2


They report that excess mortality for Belgium is +67.8 per 100,000 inhabitants, while for Germany it is +10.0. I gather that means for Belgium, with a population of 11.5 million, has 7,797 excess deaths (vice 10,728 reported coronavirus deaths). For Germany, with a population of 83.1 million, this is 8,310 excess deaths (vice 9,724 reported coronavirus deaths). 

Excess mortality for the U.S. is given as +71.6. With a population of 330.5 million, this is 236,638 compared to 216,933 reported coronavirus deaths.

 

 

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 28

Weekly update number 28 on the coronavirus in the DC area, meaning I have been doing this post for over half a year. As it is “close to home,” I sort of feel a need to keep doing it.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 3,784 new cases. Last week there were only 2,592 new cases. So back on the rise again. So we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 5,898 new cases for the day yesterday. They have almost climbed up to levels of infection they were at in late March. Still, as bad as it is in Italy, it is not as bad as the UK (17K cases yesterday), France (22K) or Spain (7K cases yesterday but 28K the day before). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 52K new cases yesterday.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 fifteen weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 10:24 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……….15,652….16,068……637
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………..4,068……4,228……152
Alexandria VA……………160,530………..3,932……4,045……..73
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795………21,414….22,185……599
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772……………72……….75…….…7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………….140……..144………..8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..………7,026……7,303…….128
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….12,811.….13,281…….216
Manassas…………………..41,641….……1,954…….1,998………25
Manassas Park………….…17,307..………..616………627……….8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….2,081…….2,174……..19
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…..…….553………568……….5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……..23,135…..23,817……859
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……..30,153…..30,878…….840
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425……123,607…127,391….3,576

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.81%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. The population known to have been infected is 2.37% or one confirmed case for every 42 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.” I personally do not know anyone that has been infected, although I know a few people who have been tested due to danger of exposure.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,864 cases (2,739 last week) and 35 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,640 cases (1,558 last week) and 22 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. A few weeks ago they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think was a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco. I gather JMU is re-opening again for students. Hopefully they will do a better job this time.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,467 confirmed cases (1,383 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,443 confirmed cases (1,385 last week) and 22 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They have been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last weeks, so the number of new cases is declining.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 2,381 cases this week (2,165 last week) and 5 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million)  is back up to over 1,000 cases a day. It did drop down to 623 new cases last week, but does not seem to want to establish a steady downward trend. It continues running a thousand new cases a day.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 309 cases (293 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow.

Continued Protests in Belarus – week 9

Photo: AP.
This is from Monday, Oct. 12, 2020.

Another week of protests in Belarus. Things are starting to take a more serious and darker turn. The EU has imposed sanctions directly on Lukashenko, Russia has put the Belarussian opposition leader (Svetlana Tikhanovskaya) on their wanted list, based upon charges against her by Belarus. She is currently residing in Lithuania, an EU and NATO member. Belarus is now threatening to use deadly force against the protestors and on Sunday detained/arrested over 700, which is more than they have done in the previous weeks. It appears that they are starting to get more heavy handed. I gather yesterday at least three Molotov cocktails were thrown by protestors. There were tens of thousands on the street Sunday and Monday (see picture above). The pensioners (older retired people) came out in force on Monday to protest. Some were tear gassed.

This is still not making a lot of the American news channels, which I think is pretty damn embarrassing.

The danger is that as Lukashenko ramps up the pressure on the protests, it is going to invigorate the protesters (which is what happened early in the protests, and why he backed off). This could get worse.

Meantime, the developments in the rest of the FSU (Former Soviet Union) include:

  1. Continued protests in the Siberian city of Khabarovsk (pop. 618,150). They have a strong anti-Putin sentiment and have been going on for three months.
  2. There has been a shaky cease-fire between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the Republic of Artsakh. We shall see how long this holds.
  3. Continued protests and governmental disruption in Kyrgyzstan going into the second week..
  4. Oh yea, and they don’t really have the Coronavirus under control, even with their Sputnik V vaccine (which is not approved for widespread use until 1 January 2021). They are reporting 13K cases for each of the last two days, the highest daily figures they have ever recorded (if you believe the reporting) and are now recording the fourth highest number of cases in the world (only exceeded by the U.S., India and Brazil).

Things remain interesting in the FSU.

 

P.S. It turns out that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya issued out a statement this morning. It says in part:

“The regime has 13 days to fulfill three prerequisites:

  1. Lukashenko must announce his resignation.

  2. Street violence must stop completely.

  3. All political prisoners must be released.

If our demands are not met by October 25, the whole country will peacefully take to the streets with the People’s Ultimatum. And on October 26, a national strike of all enterprises will begin, all roads will be blocked, sales in state stores will collapse.”

Translation cribbed from retweet from twitter account @XSovietNews

It looks like this will be coming to a head in the next two weeks.

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 27

Weekly update number 27 on the coronavirus in the DC area, meaning I have been doing this post for over half a year. As it is “close to home,” I sort of feel a need to keep doing it.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by only 2,592 new cases. Last week there were 3,111 new cases. This is the first time in over three months that there has been less than 3,000 cases a week. This is good. Hopefully it will continue to decline.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 2,677 new cases for the day yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control. Still, as bad as it is in Italy, it is not as bad as the UK (15K cases yesterday), France (11K) or Spain (12K). The U.S., which had never gotten the virus under control, had 44K new cases yesterday.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 fourteen weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 9:23 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……….15,326…15,652….631
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………..3,995…..4,068…..152
Alexandria VA……………160,530………..3,852…..3,932….…71
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795………20,981…21,414……592
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772……………70……….72………7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………….137……140……….8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..………6,889….7,026…….126
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….12,567…12,811.…..208
Manassas…………………..41,641….……1,931….1,954……..24
Manassas Park………….…17,307..……….614……..616…….…8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………2,028…..2,081………18
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…..…..547….…553………..5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……22,584….23,135……850
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…..29,494….30,153…….831
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…121,015..123,607….3,531

This is a 2% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.86%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.30% or one confirmed case for every 43 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Maybe one-third of the students at these universities are from Northern Virginia. UVA opened up for students three weeks ago. The other two universities opened up for students over a month ago. They have all had problems.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,739 cases (2,667 last week) and 34 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,558 cases (1,460 last week) and 22 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. A few weeks ago they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think was a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco. I gather JMU is about to re-open again for students. Hopefully they will do a better job this time.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,383 confirmed cases (1,246 last week) and 30 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,385 confirmed cases (1,306 last week) and 22 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They have been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last weeks, so the number of new cases is now stabilized.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 2,165 cases this week (1,997 last week) and 5 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) itself seems to be finally declining. It was running near a thousand new cases a day. It is down to 623 new cases yesterday.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 293 cases (272 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow.

Continued Protests in Belarus – week 8

AP Photo

Well, the protests continue for another week. Another tens of thousands protesters in Minsk, another 300+ people detained/arrested. The Belarus police claim 10,000 protestors. Other groups claim nearly 120,000. The pictures seem to support a higher estimate and the police had to turn water cannon on them in Minsk (pictured above). The EU did sanction 40 Belarus officials.

Nothing seems to be moving quickly, one way or the other. They are at an impasse for now. The most likely scenarios are:

  1. Protest slowly loose virility and Lukashenko settles in for his sixth term as president.
  2. Protest continue, with Lukashenko so under-mined that he cannot continue and….
    1. He calls on Russia to support him.
    2. He arranges for negotiated power sharing agreement with some of the opposition leadership.
    3. His own administration decides to replace him with someone more acceptable.
    4. He is forced to step down and surrender control of the government.
  3. There is confusion over the rulership of Belarus and Russia decides to intervene.

It does not appear that he is going to ramp up the level of police crackdown. It is clear that he does not think that he can easily suppress the protests, or is concerned that an outbreak of violence and instability opens the door for Russia to intervene.

Now, what I have never done is any systematic analysis of protests. So, I do not know if extended protests have a higher chance of success or a lower chance of success as they continue. The successful Euromaiden protests in Ukraine in 2013/2014 lasted for three months.  The 1989 Tiananmen Square protests lasted for 7 weeks until they were abruptly ended by tanks. How long can this continue with a 100,000 protesters and several hundred detained each week?

Meantime, there are some interesting developments in the rest of the FSU (Former Soviet Union).

  1. In response to the 4 October parliamentary election, protesters in Kyrgyzstan stormed the “White House,” the Supreme Council building, and other government buildings and have freed the former President from jail. The electoral authorities of Kyrgyzstan have annulled the results of the recent election. Not sure what is going to happen next. This is not a precedent that is particularly appealing to Lukashenko or Putin.
  2. Their have been continued protests of thousands of people in the Siberian city of Khabarovsk (pop. 618,150) that have now dragged on for three months. These also do not appear to be going away.
  3. There is a war going on between Azerbaijan and the Armenian supported Republic of Artsakh.

Things are getting interesting in the FSU.

Episode Nungesser

Found a description of Nungesser’s fight in the French History of the Second Hussar Regiment published in 1920. This is the follow-up to this post:

Nungesser’s first battle

The episode occurred on 31 August/1 September 1914. The previous entry was 29 August (page 34), the next entry was dated 2 September.

Here is the translated account (according to Google Translate French as I don’t know French):

Nungesser episode. – However the Nungesser rider who joined the 148th combat train with his car received at 5 p.m. from the battalion commander of tail (battalion of the 53rd D. I.) the mission to go to all price in Laon, seek reinforcements. Leaving his wounded, Dubois, at the Coucy ambulance, Nungesser leaves with two infantrymen in his car. In the forest of Saint-Gobain he comes across posts enemies, who pulling on the engine immobilize the car.

Crawling in the ditches, hoping to escape to the enemies, the hussar and the two infantrymen saw arrive a 40 horse Mors ridden by four officers: a colonel, a captain of white cuirassiers and two lieutenants. Nungesser and his two comrades open fire and after having met the retort, can kill all the Germans. Putting on coats and caps of the dead, they jump in the car, Nungesser driving, re-enter our lines and arrive at E. Mr. where they bring back the important papers on the enemy officers. The general, enthusiastic, keeps Nungesser for lunch. “You are a hussar – he adds – you took a Mors, I give it to you, you will be the hussar of Mors 1. “

 

The footnote reads

1. This adventurous hussar had barely two months of service. Originally from Valenciennes, left at the age of fifteen for the Republic Argentina, he had been a cowboy there, then began his aviator training there. Arrived at the regiment at the end of June 1914, he had asked not to go to the deposit and immediately be paid into an active squadron.

The colonel had made him ride a difficult horse which he had known how to take advantage of and satisfaction had been given to his desire.

From the hands of the general of the 53 D. I. he received the Military Medal and brigadier’s stripes; after the Battle of the Marne, he was a house-marshal and joined the air force.

On a “Voisin”, he carried out 53 bombardments during the day and night, then taking the fighter monoplane, he descends from the aviatiks whose one which flew over Nancy. The city having opened a subscription in his honor he pays the proceeds to the hospitals.

A moving duel, in which he fires his last machine-gun band, 10 meters from his opponent earned him the Legion of Honor.

Following an injury which took away part of the palace, in 1916 he received the stripes of second lieutenant. At the end of hostilities he was a lieutenant, an officer of the Legion of Honor and was ranked second * in the ace behind Fonck; he had 43 victories. His head was set price by the Germans. Such was the career of this astonishing boy, constantly punished for his anti-regulatory loops, without ceaselessly rewarded for his acts of heroism.

 

* Charles Nungesser was the third highest scoring ace in French service. The late George Guynemer (1894-1917) with 54 claimed kills was second.

 

I did receive some assistance from http://www.overthefront.com in locating this document.

 

P.S. The link to the text is here: https://gallica.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/bpt6k6420573b/f14.image

The Nungesser story is on pages 36-37 (or pages 46-47 in the file).

P.P.S. The picture of Nungesser is from the 1925 Hollywood movie The Sky Raider.

P.P.P.S.

The paragraph below is from page 36, under the discussion of the 1st Squadron and just before the discussion of the Nungesser Episode. This event appears to be dated 29 August.

The mayor of Coucy makes a car available to the Lieutenant Ninnin to evacuate Anizy; Nungesser gets behind the wheel but the car finds the road blocked by the enemy; Lieutenant Ninnin goes back on horseback and by joins the 1st Shooters, rearguard of the 13th C. A. Evacuated on the 4th in Montmirail, he returned ten days later at the 2nd Hussars.

And then it goes into the discussion of the “Nungesser Episode.”

Armor Attrition in Nagorno-Karabakh

Over the last week fighting has erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh is an area of Azerbaijan that broke away from Azerbaijan with the help of Armenia when the Soviet Union was breaking up in 1991. They went to war over it in 1991-92 and Nagorno-Karabakh declared itself the independent Republic of Artsakh on 10 December 1991.

Not sure what caused this conflict in the Caucasus to flair back up, Both of these nations have a surplus of old Soviet tanks and armored personnel carriers and fighting vehicles. The predominantly Christian Armenia tends to be supported by Russia while the predominantly Muslim Azerbaijan tends to be supported by Turkey. This is not the first time in history that Russia and Turkey had an argument over this region.

There was an article published yesterday that I found interesting:

https://news.yahoo.com/armor-attrition-nagorno-karabakh-battle-225735581.html

A few highlights:

  1. 95 people have been killed (including 11 civilians).
    1. Wikipeida is reporting higher losses. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nagorno-Karabakh_conflict
      1. 152 Armenia servicemen killed
      2. 30+ Azerbaijan servicemen killed
      3. 28-30 Syrian fighters killed
      4. 19 Azerbaijani and 13 Armenian civilians killed.
  2. Armenia claims it has destroyed 137 tanks (doubtful).
  3. Azerbaijan claims it has destroyed 130 tanks and ACVs (doubtful).

Also, the video in the article of two tanks in a column being shot is pretty interesting.

 

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 26

Weekly update number 26 on the coronavirus in the DC area, meaning I have been doing this post now for half a year. As it is “close to home,” I sort of feel a need to keep doing it.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 3,111 new cases. Last week there were 3,387 new cases. There does seem to be a pattern in that the spread of the virus has been reduced from when we were seeing 9,000 or more cases a week several months ago, to a more controlled 3,000 or more cases a week now.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 1,647 new cases for the day yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 thirteen weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:23 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….15,050…..15,326…….627
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………3,877……3,995…….150
Alexandria VA……………160,530………3,741……3,852………69
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….20,437…..20,981…….588
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….69…..…..70……..…7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…….….134……..137………..8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….….6,720…..6,889….…125
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……12,215…12,567….…205
Manassas…………………..41,641….…..1,904……1,931………26
Manassas Park………….…17,307..………..607.…….614…….…8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….1,971..…2,028……..17
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…….531……..547…..….5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….21,933.…22,584..…849
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….28,715.…29,494..…828
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..117,904…121,015…3,512

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.90%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.26% or one confirmed case for every 44 people. This is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Maybe one-third of the students at these universities are from Northern Virginia. UVA opened up for students three weeks ago. The other two universities opened up for students over a month ago. They have all had problems.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,667 cases (2,541 last week) and 34 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,460 cases (1,390 last week) and 22 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. A few weeks ago they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think was a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,246 confirmed cases (1,105 last week) and 29 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,306 confirmed cases (1,203 last week) and 21 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They have been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions this last week, so the number of new cases is now lower. They may have been better served to have tighter restrictions before they had a problem until waiting until they do.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 1,997 cases this week (1,783 last week) and 4 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) itself is not doing well, running a little under a thousand new cases a day right now (901 cases yesterday).

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 272 cases (264 last week) and 2 deaths.