Mystics & Statistics

Continued Protests in Belarus – week 9

Photo: AP.
This is from Monday, Oct. 12, 2020.

Another week of protests in Belarus. Things are starting to take a more serious and darker turn. The EU has imposed sanctions directly on Lukashenko, Russia has put the Belarussian opposition leader (Svetlana Tikhanovskaya) on their wanted list, based upon charges against her by Belarus. She is currently residing in Lithuania, an EU and NATO member. Belarus is now threatening to use deadly force against the protestors and on Sunday detained/arrested over 700, which is more than they have done in the previous weeks. It appears that they are starting to get more heavy handed. I gather yesterday at least three Molotov cocktails were thrown by protestors. There were tens of thousands on the street Sunday and Monday (see picture above). The pensioners (older retired people) came out in force on Monday to protest. Some were tear gassed.

This is still not making a lot of the American news channels, which I think is pretty damn embarrassing.

The danger is that as Lukashenko ramps up the pressure on the protests, it is going to invigorate the protesters (which is what happened early in the protests, and why he backed off). This could get worse.

Meantime, the developments in the rest of the FSU (Former Soviet Union) include:

  1. Continued protests in the Siberian city of Khabarovsk (pop. 618,150). They have a strong anti-Putin sentiment and have been going on for three months.
  2. There has been a shaky cease-fire between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the Republic of Artsakh. We shall see how long this holds.
  3. Continued protests and governmental disruption in Kyrgyzstan going into the second week..
  4. Oh yea, and they don’t really have the Coronavirus under control, even with their Sputnik V vaccine (which is not approved for widespread use until 1 January 2021). They are reporting 13K cases for each of the last two days, the highest daily figures they have ever recorded (if you believe the reporting) and are now recording the fourth highest number of cases in the world (only exceeded by the U.S., India and Brazil).

Things remain interesting in the FSU.

 

P.S. It turns out that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya issued out a statement this morning. It says in part:

“The regime has 13 days to fulfill three prerequisites:

  1. Lukashenko must announce his resignation.

  2. Street violence must stop completely.

  3. All political prisoners must be released.

If our demands are not met by October 25, the whole country will peacefully take to the streets with the People’s Ultimatum. And on October 26, a national strike of all enterprises will begin, all roads will be blocked, sales in state stores will collapse.”

Translation cribbed from retweet from twitter account @XSovietNews

It looks like this will be coming to a head in the next two weeks.

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 27

Weekly update number 27 on the coronavirus in the DC area, meaning I have been doing this post for over half a year. As it is “close to home,” I sort of feel a need to keep doing it.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by only 2,592 new cases. Last week there were 3,111 new cases. This is the first time in over three months that there has been less than 3,000 cases a week. This is good. Hopefully it will continue to decline.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 2,677 new cases for the day yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control. Still, as bad as it is in Italy, it is not as bad as the UK (15K cases yesterday), France (11K) or Spain (12K). The U.S., which had never gotten the virus under control, had 44K new cases yesterday.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 fourteen weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 9:23 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……….15,326…15,652….631
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………..3,995…..4,068…..152
Alexandria VA……………160,530………..3,852…..3,932….…71
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795………20,981…21,414……592
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772……………70……….72………7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………….137……140……….8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..………6,889….7,026…….126
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….12,567…12,811.…..208
Manassas…………………..41,641….……1,931….1,954……..24
Manassas Park………….…17,307..……….614……..616…….…8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………2,028…..2,081………18
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…..…..547….…553………..5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……22,584….23,135……850
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…..29,494….30,153…….831
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…121,015..123,607….3,531

This is a 2% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.86%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.30% or one confirmed case for every 43 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Maybe one-third of the students at these universities are from Northern Virginia. UVA opened up for students three weeks ago. The other two universities opened up for students over a month ago. They have all had problems.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,739 cases (2,667 last week) and 34 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,558 cases (1,460 last week) and 22 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. A few weeks ago they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think was a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco. I gather JMU is about to re-open again for students. Hopefully they will do a better job this time.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,383 confirmed cases (1,246 last week) and 30 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,385 confirmed cases (1,306 last week) and 22 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They have been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last weeks, so the number of new cases is now stabilized.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 2,165 cases this week (1,997 last week) and 5 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) itself seems to be finally declining. It was running near a thousand new cases a day. It is down to 623 new cases yesterday.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 293 cases (272 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow.

Continued Protests in Belarus – week 8

AP Photo

Well, the protests continue for another week. Another tens of thousands protesters in Minsk, another 300+ people detained/arrested. The Belarus police claim 10,000 protestors. Other groups claim nearly 120,000. The pictures seem to support a higher estimate and the police had to turn water cannon on them in Minsk (pictured above). The EU did sanction 40 Belarus officials.

Nothing seems to be moving quickly, one way or the other. They are at an impasse for now. The most likely scenarios are:

  1. Protest slowly loose virility and Lukashenko settles in for his sixth term as president.
  2. Protest continue, with Lukashenko so under-mined that he cannot continue and….
    1. He calls on Russia to support him.
    2. He arranges for negotiated power sharing agreement with some of the opposition leadership.
    3. His own administration decides to replace him with someone more acceptable.
    4. He is forced to step down and surrender control of the government.
  3. There is confusion over the rulership of Belarus and Russia decides to intervene.

It does not appear that he is going to ramp up the level of police crackdown. It is clear that he does not think that he can easily suppress the protests, or is concerned that an outbreak of violence and instability opens the door for Russia to intervene.

Now, what I have never done is any systematic analysis of protests. So, I do not know if extended protests have a higher chance of success or a lower chance of success as they continue. The successful Euromaiden protests in Ukraine in 2013/2014 lasted for three months.  The 1989 Tiananmen Square protests lasted for 7 weeks until they were abruptly ended by tanks. How long can this continue with a 100,000 protesters and several hundred detained each week?

Meantime, there are some interesting developments in the rest of the FSU (Former Soviet Union).

  1. In response to the 4 October parliamentary election, protesters in Kyrgyzstan stormed the “White House,” the Supreme Council building, and other government buildings and have freed the former President from jail. The electoral authorities of Kyrgyzstan have annulled the results of the recent election. Not sure what is going to happen next. This is not a precedent that is particularly appealing to Lukashenko or Putin.
  2. Their have been continued protests of thousands of people in the Siberian city of Khabarovsk (pop. 618,150) that have now dragged on for three months. These also do not appear to be going away.
  3. There is a war going on between Azerbaijan and the Armenian supported Republic of Artsakh.

Things are getting interesting in the FSU.

Episode Nungesser

Found a description of Nungesser’s fight in the French History of the Second Hussar Regiment published in 1920. This is the follow-up to this post:

Nungesser’s first battle

The episode occurred on 31 August/1 September 1914. The previous entry was 29 August (page 34), the next entry was dated 2 September.

Here is the translated account (according to Google Translate French as I don’t know French):

Nungesser episode. – However the Nungesser rider who joined the 148th combat train with his car received at 5 p.m. from the battalion commander of tail (battalion of the 53rd D. I.) the mission to go to all price in Laon, seek reinforcements. Leaving his wounded, Dubois, at the Coucy ambulance, Nungesser leaves with two infantrymen in his car. In the forest of Saint-Gobain he comes across posts enemies, who pulling on the engine immobilize the car.

Crawling in the ditches, hoping to escape to the enemies, the hussar and the two infantrymen saw arrive a 40 horse Mors ridden by four officers: a colonel, a captain of white cuirassiers and two lieutenants. Nungesser and his two comrades open fire and after having met the retort, can kill all the Germans. Putting on coats and caps of the dead, they jump in the car, Nungesser driving, re-enter our lines and arrive at E. Mr. where they bring back the important papers on the enemy officers. The general, enthusiastic, keeps Nungesser for lunch. “You are a hussar – he adds – you took a Mors, I give it to you, you will be the hussar of Mors 1. “

 

The footnote reads

1. This adventurous hussar had barely two months of service. Originally from Valenciennes, left at the age of fifteen for the Republic Argentina, he had been a cowboy there, then began his aviator training there. Arrived at the regiment at the end of June 1914, he had asked not to go to the deposit and immediately be paid into an active squadron.

The colonel had made him ride a difficult horse which he had known how to take advantage of and satisfaction had been given to his desire.

From the hands of the general of the 53 D. I. he received the Military Medal and brigadier’s stripes; after the Battle of the Marne, he was a house-marshal and joined the air force.

On a “Voisin”, he carried out 53 bombardments during the day and night, then taking the fighter monoplane, he descends from the aviatiks whose one which flew over Nancy. The city having opened a subscription in his honor he pays the proceeds to the hospitals.

A moving duel, in which he fires his last machine-gun band, 10 meters from his opponent earned him the Legion of Honor.

Following an injury which took away part of the palace, in 1916 he received the stripes of second lieutenant. At the end of hostilities he was a lieutenant, an officer of the Legion of Honor and was ranked second * in the ace behind Fonck; he had 43 victories. His head was set price by the Germans. Such was the career of this astonishing boy, constantly punished for his anti-regulatory loops, without ceaselessly rewarded for his acts of heroism.

 

* Charles Nungesser was the third highest scoring ace in French service. The late George Guynemer (1894-1917) with 54 claimed kills was second.

 

I did receive some assistance from http://www.overthefront.com in locating this document.

 

P.S. The link to the text is here: https://gallica.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/bpt6k6420573b/f14.image

The Nungesser story is on pages 36-37 (or pages 46-47 in the file).

P.P.S. The picture of Nungesser is from the 1925 Hollywood movie The Sky Raider.

P.P.P.S.

The paragraph below is from page 36, under the discussion of the 1st Squadron and just before the discussion of the Nungesser Episode. This event appears to be dated 29 August.

The mayor of Coucy makes a car available to the Lieutenant Ninnin to evacuate Anizy; Nungesser gets behind the wheel but the car finds the road blocked by the enemy; Lieutenant Ninnin goes back on horseback and by joins the 1st Shooters, rearguard of the 13th C. A. Evacuated on the 4th in Montmirail, he returned ten days later at the 2nd Hussars.

And then it goes into the discussion of the “Nungesser Episode.”

Armor Attrition in Nagorno-Karabakh

Over the last week fighting has erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh is an area of Azerbaijan that broke away from Azerbaijan with the help of Armenia when the Soviet Union was breaking up in 1991. They went to war over it in 1991-92 and Nagorno-Karabakh declared itself the independent Republic of Artsakh on 10 December 1991.

Not sure what caused this conflict in the Caucasus to flair back up, Both of these nations have a surplus of old Soviet tanks and armored personnel carriers and fighting vehicles. The predominantly Christian Armenia tends to be supported by Russia while the predominantly Muslim Azerbaijan tends to be supported by Turkey. This is not the first time in history that Russia and Turkey had an argument over this region.

There was an article published yesterday that I found interesting:

https://news.yahoo.com/armor-attrition-nagorno-karabakh-battle-225735581.html

A few highlights:

  1. 95 people have been killed (including 11 civilians).
    1. Wikipeida is reporting higher losses. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nagorno-Karabakh_conflict
      1. 152 Armenia servicemen killed
      2. 30+ Azerbaijan servicemen killed
      3. 28-30 Syrian fighters killed
      4. 19 Azerbaijani and 13 Armenian civilians killed.
  2. Armenia claims it has destroyed 137 tanks (doubtful).
  3. Azerbaijan claims it has destroyed 130 tanks and ACVs (doubtful).

Also, the video in the article of two tanks in a column being shot is pretty interesting.

 

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 26

Weekly update number 26 on the coronavirus in the DC area, meaning I have been doing this post now for half a year. As it is “close to home,” I sort of feel a need to keep doing it.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 3,111 new cases. Last week there were 3,387 new cases. There does seem to be a pattern in that the spread of the virus has been reduced from when we were seeing 9,000 or more cases a week several months ago, to a more controlled 3,000 or more cases a week now.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 1,647 new cases for the day yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 thirteen weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:23 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….15,050…..15,326…….627
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………3,877……3,995…….150
Alexandria VA……………160,530………3,741……3,852………69
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….20,437…..20,981…….588
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….69…..…..70……..…7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…….….134……..137………..8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….….6,720…..6,889….…125
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……12,215…12,567….…205
Manassas…………………..41,641….…..1,904……1,931………26
Manassas Park………….…17,307..………..607.…….614…….…8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….1,971..…2,028……..17
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…….531……..547…..….5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….21,933.…22,584..…849
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….28,715.…29,494..…828
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..117,904…121,015…3,512

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.90%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.26% or one confirmed case for every 44 people. This is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Maybe one-third of the students at these universities are from Northern Virginia. UVA opened up for students three weeks ago. The other two universities opened up for students over a month ago. They have all had problems.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,667 cases (2,541 last week) and 34 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,460 cases (1,390 last week) and 22 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. A few weeks ago they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think was a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,246 confirmed cases (1,105 last week) and 29 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,306 confirmed cases (1,203 last week) and 21 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They have been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions this last week, so the number of new cases is now lower. They may have been better served to have tighter restrictions before they had a problem until waiting until they do.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 1,997 cases this week (1,783 last week) and 4 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) itself is not doing well, running a little under a thousand new cases a day right now (901 cases yesterday).

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 272 cases (264 last week) and 2 deaths.

Nungesser’s first battle

Charles Nungesser (1892-1927) became the third highest scoring ace in French service during World War I with 43 claimed kills (3 shared). In 1914, he was with the 2nd Regiment of Hussars. His first fight was a ground skirmish behind the lines.

His actual citation reads:

“Brigadier [Corporal] of the 2nd Light Cavalry Regiment, on 3 September 1914, with his officer having been wounded during the course of a reconnaissance, he at first sheltered him, then with the assistance of several foot soldiers, after having replaced the officer who was disabled, he secured an auto and brought back the papers by crossing an area under fire by the enemy.” – Medaille Militaire citation

Now another book claims:

“Enlisting in the 2e Regiment de Hussards after war broke out, he ambushed and killed the four occupants of a Mors automobile on 3 September and drove it back to French lines, earning himself the Medaille Militaire and the car.”

Is there a better and more detailed account of this event?

 

P.S. The picture is of a 1914 MORS 12/15 CV from the movie Aces High (1976).

P.P.S. From what I have been able to determine the 2nd Hussar Regiment on the 3rd of September was at  “Aisne, Courpopil, Farm de la Gouttier, Epied, Courbin and Maison-rouge.” (source:  https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/2e_r%C3%A9giment_de_hussards)

P.P.P.S I have the 2nd Hussar Rgt reporting to the 4th Light Cavalry Brigade (Verdun) reporting to the 4th Cavalry Division (Sedan) which on 2 August was reporting to the II Army Corps which reported to the Fourth Army on 8 August 1914. Then I lose it as it is not reported with the II Army Corps on 5 August and it ends up in September 1914 reporting to the Second Cavalry Corps, which I am not sure who they reported to (in December 1914 they report to the “Groupement de Nieuport”).

P.P.P.P.S. Confirmation of award (Citations a l’Ordre de l’Armee): https://gallica.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/bpt6k6420573b/f14.image

 

Continued Protests in Belarus – week 7

Yesterday was the 50th day of protests. Through various twitter accounts one can see all the protests throughout the country. They are widespread and the protesters are clearly dawn from all parts of society and all age groups. Lots of large protests in small towns. News reports are saying “about” 100,000 protesters in Minsk and protests in nine other cities. The videos I am seeing are showing protests in some pretty small towns, so not sure where that count comes from. It was clear from the videos that there are tens of thousand of protesters in Minsk, but it may not have been a hundred thousand. The weather was not great this weekend. Another reported 350 or so people detained or arrested on Sunday.

Lukashenko has taken the oath of office for his new term, so it appears that both sides have dug in.

Now, what I have never done is any systematic analysis of protests. So, I do not know if extended protests have a higher chance of success or a lower chance of success as they continue. The successful Euromaiden protests in Ukraine in 2013/2014 lasted for three months.  The 1989 Tiananmen Square protests lasted for 7 weeks until they were abruptly ended by tanks. How long can this continue with a 100,000 protesters and several hundred detained each week?

 

P.S. The picture of the detained protestor is from a week ago. She was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews

 

Sweden versus the World

Sweden is unique in that they were one of the few countries in the Western World that did not shut down to try to contain the coronavirus. Let’s briefly take a look and see how that worked:

Country…Population…Cases…..Deaths….Infection Rate…Death Rate…Morality Rate

Sweden….10.3………….90,923…….5,880…..0.0088…………..0.00057…………6.5%

Denmark….5.8………….13,627……….270…..0.0023…………..0.00005…………2.0%

Norway……5.4………….26,637……….649…..0.0048…………..0.00012…………2.4%

.

U.S………328.2………7,081,505…204,527….0.0216…………..0.00062………….2.9%

UK………..67.9…………431,824…..42,060…..0.0064…………..0.00062………….9.7%

Italy………60.3………….308,104….35,818…..0.0051…………..0.00059………..11.6%

 

This data is from the Johns Hopkins website as of 9:23 AM. Population is in millions and is the 2020 estimates.

A few observations:

  1. Sweden’s mortality rate is a more than 10 times higher then Denmark, which did do a strict lockdown.
  2. Note that the U.S., UK and Italy have a higher mortality rate even though Sweden has not done a lockdown.
    1. The U.S. mortality rate is the highest of any developed nation in the world.
  3. The differences in mortality rates is certainly strongly influenced by the amount of testing done. The high mortality rate of Italy, UK and Sweden is certainly because of less extensive testing or failure to test.
    1. The real mortality rate is probably between 0.5% and 2%.
  4. Of course, there is no way of knowing how accurate are each of these statistics. For example, who is counted as killed by the disease does vary from country to country (for example: Germany versus Belgium).
  5. I have no way of easily comparing the economic impact of the various policies.
  6. One could postulate that If Sweden has Denmark’s mortality rate, it would have over 5,000 less deaths.
  7. One could postulate that if the United States had Denmark’s mortality rate, it would have almost 190,000 less deaths.
    1. Keep in mind these numbers are particularly fuzzy due to different reporting standards and definitions.

The picture is of a Grenadier of the Swedish Royal Guard. Sweden has not been in a war since 1815.

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 25

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million)  increased by 3,387 new cases. Last week week there were 3,317 new cases. There does seem to be a pattern in that the spread of the virus has been reduced from when we were seeing 9,000 or more cases a week several months ago, to a more controlled 3,000 or more cases a week now. Still, it does not appear to be getting any better.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 1,391 new cases for the day yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 twelve weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 10:23 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….14,376…..15,050……..621
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………3,779……3,877……..148
Alexandria VA……………160,530………3,628……3,741…..….68
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….19,837…..20,437…….583
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….66……..…69…….…6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…….….132………134………..7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….….6,523…….6,720……123
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….11,810…..12,215……201
Manassas…………………..41,641….……1,869…….1,904……..25
Manassas Park………….…17,307..…….….598……….607.….…7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….1,880….…1,971..…..17
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…….518….……531..…….5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….21,467……21,933……841
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….28,034……28,715……821
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..114,517….117,904…3,473

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.95%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.20% or one confirmed case for every 46 people.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Maybe one-third of the students at these universities are from Northern Virginia. UVA opened up for students two weeks ago. The other two universities opened up for students around a month ago. They have all had problems.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,541 cases (2,293 last week) and 34 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,390 cases (1,312 last week) and 21 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. A few weeks ago they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think was a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco.

Albemarle County, VA has 1,203 confirmed cases (1,145 last week) and 21 deaths and Charlottesville, VA which has 1,105 confirmed cases (935 last week) and 28 deaths. This is where UVA is located. They tested their students before admission, opened up campus two weeks later and are not doing in-person classes. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They are having a a growth in cases since they reopened, now around two hundred new cases on campus a week. We shall see if this can be contained. They are still not that actively patrolling to ensure that the student body is following the guidelines. They report 569 cases since 17 August, which I gather is a higher percentage of student population then for Virginia Tech.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 1,783 cases this week (1,554 last week) and 4 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now (862 cases yesterday).

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 264 cases (260 last week) and 2 deaths.