Mystics & Statistics

The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21 – 23 October 2025

The Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) is scheduled for 21 – 23 October 2025 at Tysons Corner, VA (just outside of DC). 

It is at the same facility, same times, and same type of schedule as the previous three conferences. Also, same price ($150 for three days). Virtual attendance is possible.

The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is basically across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit from 495 (the Beltway). It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road. It is in the building above the restaurant called Rangos. Parking is in the parking garage next door to it.

Seeing how things remain constant here are:

Accommodations: Hotels for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 – The Dupuy Institute

Costs: Cost of the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 -19 October 2023 – The Dupuy Institute

It will be possible to register through EventBrite: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite

I am looking for new presentations and new presenters. If you are interested in contributing, please email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com or call me (703) 289-0007.

Last year’s schedule is here: HAAC 2024: Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8-10 October 2024 – The Dupuy Institute

 

Force Ratios in the Russo-Ukrainian War

Lots of discussion going on about strengths in Ukraine and Russia and therefore force ratios. I have stayed away from talking about this, because I have other things going on (primarily writing and editing books). In the end, you don’t get a book done by blogging and engaging in debates on Twitter (now called X).

But one recent twitter debate got my attention, which was a conversation between Sashank Joshi, the defense editor at the Economist, and J.D. Vance, Vice-President of the United States.  I have exchanged a few emails with Joshi over the years. I have never talked to J.D. Vance.

Anyhow, as far as I can tell, both sides have 500,000 to 600,000 troops deployed in the field. My last discussion on this subject was in the middle of last year: Density of Deployment in Ukraine – The Dupuy Institute. At the time, Putin was claiming he had 617,000 deployed, while Ukraine was stating that it was only 450,000. I have not seen any new data since December 2023.

The 2025 Military Balance records 450,000 Russian forces in Ukraine.  They provide overall figures for the Russian Army of 550,000, Naval Infantry 10,000 and Airborne 35,000. They also report 20,000 in private military companies. Around 21,000 are reported deployed from Armenia, Georgia, Tajikistan, Moldova and in the Middle East and Africa). So a maximum total available ground strength of 594,000. 

The 2025 Military Balance gives Ukrainian Army strength as 500,000, Marine Corps at 30,000 and Airborne Assault Troops at 45,000 for a total ground strength of 575,000. This is not counting Territorial Defense Forces and National Guard.

Of those 15,000 to 30,000 Ukrainians are up and round Kursk oblast in Russian territory, and the rest are defending Ukraine, from Sumy down to Kherson. The 2025 Military Balance says it was 20,000 Ukrainians in Kursk oblast.

Conversely, Russian has a rumored 40,000 to 50,000 around Kursk oblast. There are also maybe 12,000 North Koreans around Kursk oblast and maybe 2,000 Chechins fighting for Russia elsewhere in Ukraine. The Lugansk and Donets People’s Republics together are still fielding I am guessing between 15,000 to 30,000 troops for Russia.  

Anyhow, this all points to close to parity between Russian and Ukraine, with Russian perhaps having more troops. perhaps as much as a 1.2-to-1 force ratio advantage. Inevitable some commentators quoted the discredited 3-to-1 rule, but there is still an advantage to defense. We did look at this recently for Army-level operations and produced the following blog posts:

Analysis for Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – The Dupuy Institute

Analysis for Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – continued – The Dupuy Institute

Analysis of Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – second continuation – The Dupuy Institute

Analysis of Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – third continuation – The Dupuy Institute

Analysis of Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – fourth and final continuation – The Dupuy Institute

The 3-to-1 rule and the War in Ukraine – The Dupuy Institute

Now, if you really wanted to properly analyze the scenarios, then you would need to account for weapons, especially mix and quality; and logistics, especially ammunition; and of course, Human Factors. This is possible to do but is not a small task. We won’t be taking this on soon (if ever), and I gather no one else will either. 

It is clear with proper aid and support, Ukraine can hold out forever in defense (assuming the morale and desire are there). The only Russian option to change this equation is to greatly increase recruitment. There is a reason, three years into this war, they have not done this.  Therefore, it is possible to continue this war for years until someone decides to compromise.

Now, as long as Russan morale and desire reman sufficiently high (and it is probably a bigger variable than Ukrainian morale and desire), then it does not appear that Ukraine will not be able to retake the occupied territories. The question becomes: how solid is Russian morale and desire? We did see in June 2023 a revolt against the government by the Wagner mercenary company. In World War I we saw multiple countries armies collapse at various times during the third and fourth years of the war. Army morale collapses are not improbable or maybe not even unlikely. It does mean that the strategy becomes to maintain the war until Russia either modifies its negotiating position to give up territory, or the army or the government starts to collapse. 

Three long years of war

Three long years of war, sad to say. This book covers the first six weeks of the war.

It is an attempt at a military history of the war. It is the first in a series, with The Siege of Mariupol being the second book and currently in editing. The third book in the series is The Battle for the Donbas covering operations in the spring and summer of 2022. Both of these books are co-authored by Stephan Korshak. Expect to eventually have six or eight or more books covering the operations in this war. They are, unfortunately, giving us plenty to write about.

Proposed book cover for The Hunting Falcon

A commentator on our last post on The Hunting Falcon stated that “Chris, you have very good book cover designers.” See: The Hunting Falcon to be released in the UK on Friday, 14 February – The Dupuy Institute

Now, our original cover recommendation to Pen & Sword was this:

This was kind of my recommendation, as I wanted to emphasis Hans Buddecke’s tie-in with Gallipoli. I figured that had marketing value. Jay Karamales actually did all the work.

Pen & Sword came back with this:

Now, I suspect part of the reason for this cover is that it matched up with the covers of their other World War I air books, for which they have quite a collection. See: Pen and Sword Books: WWI. Our book is on page 4, still listed as pre-order.

My understanding is that Pen & Sword does have the book in stock. Right now Amazon.com (UK) is saying it is “currently unavailable” while the Amazon.com (U.S.) is giving their U.S. release date as 31 March 2025.  I gather it takes a few days for the books to be shipped through the system.

 

Books and public sources that describe the QJM and TNDM

The QJM (Quantified Judgment Model) and TNDM (Tactical Numerical Deterministic Model are two combat models that Trevor Dupuy developed first in 1977 as the QJM, and then heavily revised and released in 1990 at the TNDM. We do sell a computerized version of the TNDM along with manuals and training courses but at a price out of reach for most individuals. See: TNDM & QJM – The Dupuy Institute

Now, I do regularly get enquiries about the model. The combat models are described in a half-dozen books.

1.  The first version of the combat model, the QJM, is fully described in Trevor Dupuy’s book Numbers, Predictions and War (1977). You may have to fish around for it, it is not in print. I see a used version for sale on Amazon.com for $77.59 and $89.95.
2. The theoretical discussions that come from his work is described in his book Understanding War (1987). This is the most significant book written by Trevor Dupuy and should be in every serious military analyst’s library. Amazon.com has a used copy for $15.89. We have new copies for $24.95: Understanding War: History and Theory of Combat – The Dupuy Institute and Ordering Information – The Dupuy Institute. An earlier theoretical book, Evolution of Weapons and Warfare (1980) is available on Amazon.com for $19.96.
3. The new model, the TNDM, was created in 1990. It is described in two books, Attrition (1990) and If War Comes (1991). Both are out of print. Attrition is for sale on Amazon.com for $123.10. I tried to warn you:  We our down to our last 16 copies of Attrition – The Dupuy Institute. If War Comes is not on Amazon.com (even though it was on the Times best-sellers list).  His father’s books, written in 1938 is available for $15.55 paperback and $30.00 hardcover. Trevor Dupuy’s book is available on Ebay for $45.95.
4. Some quantitative analysis of combat and a little on the TNDM is described in my book War by Numbers (2017). That book is still in print and available in Amazon.com for $37.15 (list price 39.95). It is rated at 4.7 out of 5 on Amazon.
5. Now there were a lot of reports and studies does to develop these combat models. They include:
6. There were also a dozen “International TNDM Newsletters” prepared when we were working various support contracts for the TNDM. They are here:  TNDM Newsletter – The Dupuy Institute
7. Finally, it is discussed in our blog: Mystics & Statistics – The Dupuy Institute. Specifically if you search on our blog categories “TNDM”: TNDM – The Dupuy Institute or “Modeling, Simulation & Wargaming”: Modeling, Simulation & Wargaming – The Dupuy Institute or “casualty estimation”:  Casualty estimation – The Dupuy Institute or “Dupuy’s Theory of Combat”: Dupuy’s Theory of Combat – The Dupuy Institute
8. Finally, it was discussed in our now inactive Forum: The Dupuy Institute Forum – powered by Infopop
 
Hopefully, that should answer a lot of enquiries.
 

Presentation on Aces at Kursk on Wednesday, 19 February, 800 PM

I will be making a presentation about my book Aces at Kursk on Wednesday, 19 February, 800 PM on Greg McNiff’s World War II Discussion Forum: World War II Discussion Forum | Home. There is a zoom link on that page for that presentation.

Also it is here: Launch Meeting – Zoom

Mr. McNiff’s program is quite good with authors presenting their books each week in a virtual setting. Definitely worth looking at.

The World War II Discussion Forum is supported by entirely by donations, so do what you can to help.

Shaping the Russo-Ukrainian Peace Negotiations

It appears that the United States had begun shaping the Russo-Ukrainian Peace Negotiations. Not sure why they would choose to do so now, but their two main points are:

  1. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Wednesday called Ukraine’s desire to recover all of the territory it has lost to Russia since 2014 an “unrealistic objective,” 
  2. Any peace deal, Hegseth added, must come with “robust security guarantees,” international oversight of the boundary between Russian and Ukrainian forces, and no NATO membership for Ukraine

Source: Hegseth calls Ukraine’s peace goals ‘unrealistic’ in meeting with allies

 

The Hunting Falcon to be released in the UK on Friday, 14 February

The Hunting Falcon is being released in the UK the Friday, 14 February.

According to Amazon.com it will be released in the U.S. March 31, 2025.


The Hunting Falcon covers the story of the third German ace to be awarded the Blue Max, after Immelmann and Boelcke. Hans-Joachim Buddecke was the fighter pilot and squadron leader who established German air dominance over Gallipoli in late 1915 – early 1916. A book of his story was published in German in 1918 but was never translated until recently. We (meaning Jay Karamales) translated it, and then we researched the background behind some of his stories. So the book alternates between several translated chapters from his book then a chapter explaining in more depth the people and events behind his story. For example, it includes a detailed description of the air operations around Gallipoli.

Hans-Joachim Buddecke story starts in Indianapolis before the Great War. He talks about his American cousin and uncle who had recently encouraged him to move from Germany to the United States. We have been able to research and identify that uncle as Albert Lieber, a very successful brewer and businessman in Indianapolis, who he went into the airplane business with. His cousin was Edith Lieber Vonnegut, the tall and attractive socialite mother of the famous atmospheric scientist Dr. Bernand Vonnegut (1914-1997) and the even more famous writer Kurt Vonnegut Jr. (1922-2007).

Leaving his airplane at the infield of Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Hans Buddecke snuck past the British blockade into Germany and became third ace in the German air force. This book details for the first time his complete story, including the unsavory aspects of it.

Ukrainian Corps

MilitaryLand.net on Twitter (X) stated last week that “The Ukrainian Army is reportedly planning to establish up to 20 Army Corps, including the 3rd and Azov Corps, with each corps consisting of at least five brigades.”

Now, this would imply that there are 100 Ukrainian brigades. At the start of war in February 24, 2022 Ukraine had mobilized around 25 maneuver brigades. They also had 9 artillery brigades and 2 in reserve (see pages 66 – 76 in The Battle for Kyiv for a listing of them). The does not count National Guard, Territorial Defense or Foreign Volunteers. By the end of May they had mobilized at least 13 more maneuver brigades. So by the summer of 2022 they had at least 49 brigades (including artillery). 

If I look at Militaryland.net now I can count 103 units labelled as brigades: 3 tank brigades, 46 mechanized brigades, 3 heavy mechanized brigades, 3 assault brigades, 2 mountain assault brigades, 3 motorized brigades, 2 jaeger brigades, 1 presidential brigade, 10 artillery brigades, 1 artillery recon brigade, 1 missile brigade, 2 rocket artillery brigades, 4 territorial defense brigades, 1 unmanned strike aviation brigade, 4 army aviation brigades, 4 marine brigades, 2 marine artillery brigades, 1 airborne brigade, 3 airmobile brigades, 5 air assault brigades, 1 air assault jaeger brigade, 1 air assault artillery brigade). This does count air defense and coastal defense missile and artillery units.

There are four operational commands (east, north, south and west)

Now, the structure of battalions reporting to regiments/brigades reporting to divisions reporting to corps reporting to armies date back to the Napoleonic Wars. This is kind of been the structure of most militaries over the last 200 years. There has been a push in recent time to eliminate the division and to go straight from brigades to corps. Not exactly sure what is gained by this, but for smaller armies it makes some sense. Ukraine does not have a small army.

In comparison, the U.S. had thirteen divisions (10 Army and 3 Marine). The U.S. Army has four active corps (I, III, V and XVIII Airborne). It has six armes (1st, Central. North, South, Europe and Africa, and 8th (Korea)). Only one is an actual field army. This Army structure had never made a lot of sense to me. The Marines also have two corps headquarters (I and II MEFs)

 

P.S. Just to clarify, the U.S. Army has had a total of 260 four-star generals in its history. In wartime, we had one during the Revolutionary War (1775-1783), three during the Civil War (1861-1865), three during WWI (1917-1918), 16 during WWII (but 11 were created in 1945, so only 5 for most of the war). We currently have 11 four-star general in the U.S. Army.

For the record, over the decades I have met 11 of them, starting with William C. Westmorland. 

The U.S. Marine Corps has had 75 four-star generals in its history. The first in March 1945 during WWII. There are currently three serving.

Basically, the U.S. Army and U.S. Marine Corps has one four-star general for each division. 

 

P.P.S. I did send this out for comment before posting it, and Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West) added: 

“The “corps” are actually divisions, even though they will be labeled “corps.” The test bed was the Voron Group, which has been operating in the Lyman area since last year. The Voron Group is a National Guard “division” comprising three brigades (including Azov). I’m unsure what “division” enablers were assigned to them, if any, since enablers are more dispersed than maneuver units. The command relationships and battlefield management functioned well enough for the General Staff to replicate it across the ground forces. However, it likely succeeded because the National Guard has a better leadership caliber than the regular army (this observation comes from sources on the ground; take it as you will). “

Situation in Ukraine, 3 February 2025

I have not blogged for a while. Been focused on books recently (and they do require some focus).

Anyhow, nothing earthshaking has been going on in Ukraine and it does not appear that we are on the verge of achieving “peace for our time,” so the war does continue. Wanted to tag for a moment where the front lines are, tapping into War Mapper’s efforts:

Oskil River:

West of Pokrovsk:

Andriivka:

“Kursk salient”

West of Terny:

East of Siversk:

Around Toretsk:

Velyka Novosilka:

Overview map for 3 February 2025:

 

We do like War Mapper. War Mapper Links:

War Mapper on X: “Ukraine updates: In Kharkiv, Russia has significantly expanded its positions on the western bank of the Oskil River. They have taken positions both north and south of the previous area of control in Dvorichna. https://t.co/a4qUzciCNL” / X

War Mapper on X: “The advance wrapping around the west of Pokrovsk has continued to develop with Russian forces taking Solone and entering Udachne. https://t.co/T29GdEWwb0” / X

War Mapper on X: “Further south, they have advanced into Andriivka after taking a series of fortifications east of the Town. https://t.co/L9DkVLNGaX” / X

War Mapper on X: “Russian forces in the south of the Kursk salient have pushed up to the southern outskirts of Sudzha. https://t.co/5Qp8ETnDbv” / X

War Mapper on X: “Russia has reached and potentially already secured positions in the first Ukrainian defensive line west of Terny after previously crossing and taking Ivanivka in January. https://t.co/rr2Wp8Obac” / X

War Mapper on X: “East of Sivers’k, Russia has entered the eastern outskirts of the settlement of Verkhnokamianske. https://t.co/TTskiMSphi” / X

War Mapper on X: “Russia continues to consolidate its positions around Toretsk after recently taking control of the city. https://t.co/DKoiw3HN1J” / X

War Mapper on X: “Last week, Velyka Novosilka was fully occupied by Russian forces. https://t.co/qoqRWnRcqk” / X

War Mapper on X: “An overview map of the situation in Ukraine as of 03 March 2025. https://t.co/h3LHd4Zxzz” / X

 

The quote from Neville Chamberlain is:

“My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honor. I believe it is peace for our time… Go home and get a nice quiet sleep.”

September 30, 1938