Category Russia

The U.S. and Ukraine have agreed to a thirty-day ceasefire. Russia now has to agree.

Terms are (according to the news reports):

• Immediate 30-day ceasefire.
• The United States immediately lifts its pause on sharing intelligence with Ukraine and resumes security assistance to that country.
  • This appears to occur even if Russia does not agree to the plan. 
• U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed to conclude “as soon as possible a comprehensive agreement for developing Ukraine’s critical mineral resources.”

The ceasefire would halt all hostilities, “not just for missiles, drones and bombs, not just in the Black Sea, but along the entire front line.” (Zelenskyy)

The U.S. and Ukrainian delegations said the interim, month-long ceasefire “can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties.” (joint statement)

Now, have no idea if this has been properly prepped with Russia or not. They could turn it down. I would not be surprised if they insist on Ukraine withdrawing from Kursk area before they agree. 

Anyhow, it is a proposed 30-day ceasefire.

1. It does not guarantee it will be extended.
2. Does not address any of the issues that caused the war.
3. Does not provide any security guarantees for Ukraine.
4. It leaves 20% of Ukraine in Russia hands.

We shall see if it is agreed to and, if agreed to, how long it stands. We have been down this road before (2014-2022).

 

 Copy of Joint Statement:

Text of US-Ukraine statement paving way for resumption of aid, intelligence sharing

Other Sources:

Ukraine agrees to U.S.-led ceasefire plan if Russia accepts

US and Ukraine call for 30-day ceasefire following Saudi talks

Lots of discussion going on about strengths in Ukraine and Russia and therefore force ratios. I have stayed away from talking about this, because I have other things going on (primarily writing and editing books). In the end, you don’t get a book done by blogging and engaging in debates on Twitter (now called X).

But one recent twitter debate got my attention, which was a conversation between Sashank Joshi, the defense editor at the Economist, and J.D. Vance, Vice-President of the United States.  I have exchanged a few emails with Joshi over the years. I have never talked to J.D. Vance.

Anyhow, as far as I can tell, both sides have 500,000 to 600,000 troops deployed in the field. My last discussion on this subject was in the middle of last year: Density of Deployment in Ukraine – The Dupuy Institute. At the time, Putin was claiming he had 617,000 deployed, while Ukraine was stating that it was only 450,000. I have not seen any new data since December 2023.

The 2025 Military Balance records 450,000 Russian forces in Ukraine.  They provide overall figures for the Russian Army of 550,000, Naval Infantry 10,000 and Airborne 35,000. They also report 20,000 in private military companies. Around 21,000 are reported deployed from Armenia, Georgia, Tajikistan, Moldova and in the Middle East and Africa). So a maximum total available ground strength of 594,000. 

The 2025 Military Balance gives Ukrainian Army strength as 500,000, Marine Corps at 30,000 and Airborne Assault Troops at 45,000 for a total ground strength of 575,000. This is not counting Territorial Defense Forces and National Guard.

Of those 15,000 to 30,000 Ukrainians are up and round Kursk oblast in Russian territory, and the rest are defending Ukraine, from Sumy down to Kherson. The 2025 Military Balance says it was 20,000 Ukrainians in Kursk oblast.

Conversely, Russian has a rumored 40,000 to 50,000 around Kursk oblast. There are also maybe 12,000 North Koreans around Kursk oblast and maybe 2,000 Chechins fighting for Russia elsewhere in Ukraine. The Lugansk and Donets People’s Republics together are still fielding I am guessing between 15,000 to 30,000 troops for Russia.  

Anyhow, this all points to close to parity between Russian and Ukraine, with Russian perhaps having more troops. perhaps as much as a 1.2-to-1 force ratio advantage. Inevitable some commentators quoted the discredited 3-to-1 rule, but there is still an advantage to defense. We did look at this recently for Army-level operations and produced the following blog posts:

Analysis for Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – The Dupuy Institute

Analysis for Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – continued – The Dupuy Institute

Analysis of Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – second continuation – The Dupuy Institute

Analysis of Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – third continuation – The Dupuy Institute

Analysis of Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – fourth and final continuation – The Dupuy Institute

The 3-to-1 rule and the War in Ukraine – The Dupuy Institute

Now, if you really wanted to properly analyze the scenarios, then you would need to account for weapons, especially mix and quality; and logistics, especially ammunition; and of course, Human Factors. This is possible to do but is not a small task. We won’t be taking this on soon (if ever), and I gather no one else will either. 

It is clear with proper aid and support, Ukraine can hold out forever in defense (assuming the morale and desire are there). The only Russian option to change this equation is to greatly increase recruitment. There is a reason, three years into this war, they have not done this.  Therefore, it is possible to continue this war for years until someone decides to compromise.

Now, as long as Russan morale and desire reman sufficiently high (and it is probably a bigger variable than Ukrainian morale and desire), then it does not appear that Ukraine will not be able to retake the occupied territories. The question becomes: how solid is Russian morale and desire? We did see in June 2023 a revolt against the government by the Wagner mercenary company. In World War I we saw multiple countries armies collapse at various times during the third and fourth years of the war. Army morale collapses are not improbable or maybe not even unlikely. It does mean that the strategy becomes to maintain the war until Russia either modifies its negotiating position to give up territory, or the army or the government starts to collapse. 

Three long years of war, sad to say. This book covers the first six weeks of the war.

It is an attempt at a military history of the war. It is the first in a series, with The Siege of Mariupol being the second book and currently in editing. The third book in the series is The Battle for the Donbas covering operations in the spring and summer of 2022. Both of these books are co-authored by Stephan Korshak. Expect to eventually have six or eight or more books covering the operations in this war. They are, unfortunately, giving us plenty to write about.

It appears that the United States had begun shaping the Russo-Ukrainian Peace Negotiations. Not sure why they would choose to do so now, but their two main points are:

1. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Wednesday called Ukraine’s desire to recover all of the territory it has lost to Russia since 2014 an “unrealistic objective,” 
2. Any peace deal, Hegseth added, must come with “robust security guarantees,” international oversight of the boundary between Russian and Ukrainian forces, and no NATO membership for Ukraine

Source: Hegseth calls Ukraine’s peace goals ‘unrealistic’ in meeting with allies

 

I have not blogged for a while. Been focused on books recently (and they do require some focus).

Anyhow, nothing earthshaking has been going on in Ukraine and it does not appear that we are on the verge of achieving “peace for our time,” so the war does continue. Wanted to tag for a moment where the front lines are, tapping into War Mapper’s efforts:

Oskil River:

West of Pokrovsk:

Andriivka:

“Kursk salient”

West of Terny:

East of Siversk:

Around Toretsk:

Velyka Novosilka:

Overview map for 3 February 2025:

 

We do like War Mapper. War Mapper Links:

War Mapper on X: “Ukraine updates: In Kharkiv, Russia has significantly expanded its positions on the western bank of the Oskil River. They have taken positions both north and south of the previous area of control in Dvorichna. https://t.co/a4qUzciCNL” / X

War Mapper on X: “The advance wrapping around the west of Pokrovsk has continued to develop with Russian forces taking Solone and entering Udachne. https://t.co/T29GdEWwb0” / X

War Mapper on X: “Further south, they have advanced into Andriivka after taking a series of fortifications east of the Town. https://t.co/L9DkVLNGaX” / X

War Mapper on X: “Russian forces in the south of the Kursk salient have pushed up to the southern outskirts of Sudzha. https://t.co/5Qp8ETnDbv” / X

War Mapper on X: “Russia has reached and potentially already secured positions in the first Ukrainian defensive line west of Terny after previously crossing and taking Ivanivka in January. https://t.co/rr2Wp8Obac” / X

War Mapper on X: “East of Sivers’k, Russia has entered the eastern outskirts of the settlement of Verkhnokamianske. https://t.co/TTskiMSphi” / X

War Mapper on X: “Russia continues to consolidate its positions around Toretsk after recently taking control of the city. https://t.co/DKoiw3HN1J” / X

War Mapper on X: “Last week, Velyka Novosilka was fully occupied by Russian forces. https://t.co/qoqRWnRcqk” / X

War Mapper on X: “An overview map of the situation in Ukraine as of 03 March 2025. https://t.co/h3LHd4Zxzz” / X

 

The quote from Neville Chamberlain is:

“My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honor. I believe it is peace for our time… Go home and get a nice quiet sleep.”

September 30, 1938

 

 

Well, so far it doesn’t look like the current Ukrainian offense, that started on Sunday 5 January, was not all that much. They took the town of Berdin and I gather 20 or so square kilometers of territory. To put that in perspective, Washington DC is 177 sq km.

Anyhow, it appeared the Ukrainian attack went on for two days (Sunday and Monday), at then stopped. Meanwhile other actions continued around Pokrovsk where Russia took some more territory in the slowest moving offensive since 1917 (this is probably not entirely correct… but you get the point). 

What did get my attention was the claim that “Ukrainian officials have indicated this is part of a larger operation.” We will see if that is true. We will see if Ukraine has anything more in hand.