Mystics & Statistics

October’s Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 8 – 10 October 2024

The Third HAAC is next week. Currently there are 40 presentations (and 2 group discussions). The current schedule is:

Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center
Revised 7 October 2024

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930 Introductory remarks – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030 Studying Combat: The “Base of Sand” Problem – Dr. Shawn R. Woodford

1030 – 1130   Urban Warfare (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1130 – 1230 Redux: Quantifying Warfare – Alexandru Filip (Canadian Center for Strategic Studies)

1230 – 1400 Lunch

1400 – 1500 Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII – Sasho Todorov, esquire

1500 – 1600 Validation Challenges in Wargaming: What’s Real Here? – Dr. Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)

1600 – 1700 New Findings on Artillery Suppression – Dr. Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes) – virtual

1700 – 1800 Gun, Baby, Gun – Dr. Iain Overton (AOAV) – virtual

Evening (1900): Group Dinner – Rangos

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100    Close Combat Overmatch Weapons (SLAMMER) – Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1100 – 1200 Native American Wars and Conflicts, 1500-1900 – Dr. David Cuberes – virtual

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400   Haiti: The Risks of a Failed State in the Western Hemisphere – Dr. Christopher Davis

1400 – 1500   The Gaza Death Numbers – Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University) – virtual

1500 – 1600  The Islamic State of Khorasan: The Evolution of Terrorism – Dr. Christopher Davis

1600 – 1700   Group Discussion: The Next Middle East Wars

Evening (1900): Group Dinner – BJs

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000   Musicians of Mars – Michael McCarthy

1000 – 1100   Force Ratios – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1100 – 1200 Ground Warfare in 2050: How it Looked in 2017 – Dr. Alexander Kott

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400 The Red Army’s Offensive Operations in Ukraine, 1943-44 – Dr. Richard Harrison

1400 – 1500 Critique of Western Wargames of NATO-WP Conflict – Walker Gargagliano

1500 – 1600 Capabilities of FPV drones in Ukraine: Revolution or Continuation of Historical Quantitative Trend? – Dr. Alexander Kott

1600 – 1700 Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War

Evening: Happy hour – Rangos

Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

Day 1: Naval Warfare Analysis

0930 – 1030 A Naval Power Index: The U.S. Navy vs three challengers – Imperial Japan, USSR and PRC China – Geoffrey Clark

1030 – 1130 U-boats in the Atlantic: The Unseen and Unheard – Dr. John Magill – virtual

1130 – 1230   Open

1230-1400   Lunch

1400 – 1500 Surveying and Quantifying Naval Warfare – Alexandru Filip

1500 – 1600 Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII (part 2 or overflow presentation) – Sasho Todorov, esquire

1600 – 1700   A Modest Proviso – National Guard Bureau Chief George Leach and his Role as Catalyst in Motorizing Artillery – Dr. Johannes Allert (Swansea University, Wales)

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 1000   Designing Computer Based AI Wargaming Systems for Simulating and Investigating Historical Battles – Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies, Australia) – virtual

1000 – 1100   Theory of Victory: The Ideas, Doctrine and Education of the U.S. Army from 1814-1941 – Dr. Michael Bonura (CGSC) – virtual

1100 – 1200   Winfield Scott: Architect of American Joint Warfare – LtC. Nathan A. Jennings (CGSC) – virtual

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400   open

1400 – 1500   open

1500 – 1600    Making Military Decisions in Plateau Eras – Michael Benhamou (Director, OPEWI) – virtual

1600 – 1700   open

Day 2: Air Warfare Analysis

0900 – 1000   Mass Egress after an IED Explosion: Lessons Learned about Validation – Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)

1000 – 1100  Dogfight: Were US pilots in Korea really better than those in Vietnam? – Chip Sayers

1100 – 1200 The WW2 USAAF Strategic Bombing Campaign: Strategy and Operational Imperatives – Dr. Sorin Adam Matei & Dr. Robert Kirchubel (Purdue University) 

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400   VPAF Aces: As good as they claimed? – Chip Sayers

1400 – 1500   Data for Air Combat Modeling in Network Centric Warfare – Geoffrey Clark

1500 – 1600   Open

1600 – 1700   Open

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000   Urban Warfare: Myths and Reality – Dr. James Storr (UK) – virtual

1000 – 1100   The Red Army’s Plans for a Preemptive Attack in 1941 – Dr. Richard Harrison

1100 – 1200   Analyzing Barbarossa: By the Numbers – Dr. Robert Kirchubel & Sorin Adam Matei (Purdue)

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400    The Debate over French Armored Warfare Doctrine 1935 to 1940 – Dr. James Slaughter

1400 – 1500    Ukrainian-German spies of the Cold War – David Nelson Black – virtual

1500 – 1600   Chernobyl compromised: The story of a Russian cyber attack – Joseph Weiss (Applied Control Solutions, LLC) – virtual

1600 – 1700   Political Science Pedagogy in Strategic Studies (A Contrast in Quantified History) – Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill – virtual 

Friday, October 11: Tour of a Civil War Battlefield – Antietam: bloodiest day of the U.S. Civil War (and in the Western Hemisphere?). – we will arrange transport there and back ($20 charge for tour).

See this link below for costs ($150), address, conference description, hotels, and call for presentations: Announcements for the Third HAAC, 8-10 October – The Dupuy Institute

Five presentations from the second day of the First HAAC (2022)

Below are the five recorded presentations from the second day of the first HAAC in 2022. These are all the presentations from the Einstein Conference Room. We do not have videos of the presentations done that day from the Pike & Gallows Conference Room. We do have hard copies of them (see link below).

What was presented that day is:

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 1000    A Statistical Analysis of Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning?                                                                Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1000 – 1100    The Combat Assessment Technique       William Sayers – virtual

1100 – 1200    Machine Learning the Lessons of History      Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Penetration Division: Theory, History, Concept                LtC. Nathan A Jennings, PhD

1400 – 1500    Learning from History: The Army’s Future Study Program       LtC. Adam. L. Taliaferro

 

They are here:

  1. Statistical Analysis of Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning? by Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS) (youtube.com)
  2. Combat Assessment Technique (youtube.com)
  3. Machine Learning The Lessons of History (youtube.com)
  4. Penetration Division: Theory, History, Concept by LtC. Nathan A. Jennings, PhD (youtube.com)
  5. Learning from History: The Army’s Future Study Program by LtC. Adam L. Taliaferro (youtube.com)

 

The presentations from the first day are here: Video presentations from the first day of the First HAAC – The Dupuy Institute. They are all also on The Dupuy Institute YouTube channel.

The schedule for the 2022 conference is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 16 – The Dupuy Institute. Two of the presentations on the 28th were cancelled. The presentation on Urban Warfare is going to be given at the 2024 conference.

The schedule for the 2024 conference on 8-10 October is here: September’s Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8 – 10 October 2024 – The Dupuy Institute and here: HAAC 2024: Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8-10 October 2024 – The Dupuy Institute

September’s Announcement for the Third HAAC, 8-10 October

The Third HAAC is occurring on 8 – 10 October in Tysons Corner. There are currently 43 presentations planned and two group discussions.

The current schedule is here (updated 17 September): September’s Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8 – 10 October 2024 – The Dupuy Institute

The conference is also posted on Eventbrite: Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 8, 2024 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite

They choose the picture, but it was kind of perfect for a Historical Analysis conference. You can pay for the conference through Eventbrite.

The cost of the conference is $150 for three days or $60 per day. It is a $60 discount if you present. There is a student discount of $20 a day for “real students.” There are now multiple ways to pay 1) though Paypal via SRichTDI@aol.com, 2) by calling (703) 289-0007 and paying by credit card, 3) our you can mail me a check (very retro), 4) or pay cash, 5) or pay through Eventbrite.

Cost is here: Cost of the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 -19 October 2023 – The Dupuy Institute

Hotels are here: Hotels for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 – The Dupuy Institute

Call for presentations is here: Call for Presentations for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 – The Dupuy Institute

Conference description is here: The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA – The Dupuy Institute

The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is basically across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit from 495 (the Beltway). It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road. It is in the building above the restaurant called Rangos. Parking is in the parking garage next door to it.

We do have virtual presentations and we do accept virtual attendees. Conference works better if lots of people attend in person. People will connect via Zoom. We will send out Zoom links to all virtual attendees just before the conference starts.

We are slowly posting up videos from the previous conferences, we are halfway through the 2022 conference. They are here: The Dupuy Institute – YouTube

If there are any questions you can email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com or call me at (703) 289-0007. Look forward to seeing you all there.

What is happening with the Pokrovsk offensive?

Of course, the main offensive this summer has been the Russian offensive towards Pokrovsk. The Second Battle of Kursk is kind of a sideshow. But this offensive toward Pokrovsk has been dragging on all summer, advancing very slowly across ground of no particular significance towards an objective of no particular significance. Lately, as they get nearer to Pokrovsk, the Russian offensive has slowed down from a crawl to a snail’s pace (these are precise technical terms). The Russians are currently from 7 to 12 kilometers from Pokrovsk.

The significance of this ground is that it is clear that Russian expects a ceasefire to be negotiated at some point (this fall, next fall, the fall after next fall?). When a ceasefire is negotiated, Russia expects to keep anything it has taken. Over the course of this entire summer, it has taken about 1,000 square kilometers (an area about the size of Fairfax County). I gather they are assuming that this will be part of their gains for “new Russia.” So, while the ground it not particular significant militarily or even economically, it is part of what appears to be a permanent expansion of the Russian border, fought over each square kilometer at a time (there are 2.59 square kilometers of a square mile). 

Just for the record, Pokrovsk is large town with a population of 60,127 in 2022. It is 56 kilometers (35 miles) northwest of Donetsk and is the administrative center of the Pokrovsk Raion. The Pokrovsk Raion has an area of 1,316 square kilometers (508 square miles) and a 2022 estimated population of 386,451. In the 2001 census 87% of the people were Ukrainian, 11% were Russian. In the town of Prokrovsk it was 75% Ukrainian, 22% Russian. The composer Sergie Prokofiev (1891-1953) was born here (at Sontsivka) and died in Moscow the same day as Stalin. He is buried at Novodevichy Cemetery (along with Khrushchev and half the senior commanders at the Battle of Kursk, see my big book for their grave pictures).

So, @Warmapper has been faithfully tracking this offensive for a while. It is listed in Wikipedia as starting 18 July 2024 and is still going on. This is date of the capture of the small village Prohres. There was an offensive going on before that, starting with the Battle of Avdiivka (10 October 2023 – 17 February 2024) and continuing up to the capture of Prohres. Let us crib some maps from Warmapper for a moment:

This map is dated 24 August 2024. The part in blue is the pre-February 2022 border of the DPR. One can see their push from the border near Avdiivka toward Pokrovsk. This is an advance of around 40 kilometers. Not exactly earthshaking and not all done this year.

Here is the advance as of 30 August (zoomed in):

The real danger is if the Ukrainian Army is getting so ground down as be unable to hold the line and Russia achieves a penetration. This was probably a more serious concern a month ago, but with Russia slowing, it is looking less likely. Also, the weather will get colder and sometime in November, operations will have to halt. So, if Ukraine can hold for the next two months, then it is probably good until spring 2025. It is debatable at this point if Russia will get to Pokrovsk, let alone take it.

I am not sure I am going to put together a blog post on losses in the Pokrovsk campaign like I did for Kursk (see: So what have the Russians lost around Sudzha? – The Dupuy Institute). 

So what have the Russians lost around Sudzha?

Warspotting is a site that takes all those reports and photographs of tanks, IFVs and other vehicles and equipment destroyed, and plots them to a map. They are here: Map ∙ WarSpotting — documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war

They do report for August and September of 2024 a number of Russian vehicles in and around Sudzha. There is probably a way of posting the map to the blog, but let me describe what we are seeing (as of the evening of 9 September 2024):

  1. There are two vehicles destroyed from March 2024 in the western part of the oblast, and two in May and June near Korenevo and seven near Sudzha dated May and June. These eleven wrecks are not part of this battle.
  2. In the west three pontoon links reported destroyed on 8 September across the Seym River.
  3. There are 11 wrecks around Budki from August & September: A Gaz-66 on 31 August 2024 near the Seym River, three pontoon links across the Seym River reported destroyed on 7 September, four KrAZ-255 and two pontoon links reported destroyed on 28 August, a KamAZ 6×6 truck reported destroyed on 28 August 2024. Clearly some clever selective targeting.
  4.  4 wrecks: Further to the southeast down the Seym River is a KamAZ 8×8 truck that is part of the pontoon bridging units. It was reported destroyed 20 August 2024. To its north is a KamAZ 6×6 truck, also reported destroyed 20 August 2024. North of there is a BMP 1 or 2 and BMP-2M “Berezhok’ reported destroyed on 24 August 2024. 
  5. Further north there are eight wrecked trucks in Oktyabrskoye on highway E38 This includes seven KamAZ 6×6 and one Ural-4320, all dated 8 August 2024. 
  6. Outside of Korenevo are nine wrecks:  two Ural-4320 dated 12 August and 7 September, KamAZ 6×6 dated 12 August, Ural-43206 dated 2 September, UAZ-452 dated 18 August, BTR-82A(M) dated 7 September, unknown T-80 OBr. 2022 tank variant dated 23 August, T-90 “Proryv’ tank reported captured on 19 August (see picture), BTR-82AT dated 17 August 2024.
  7. Clustered around Sudzha are 18 wrecks: one KamAZ 6×6 dated 7 August, KA-52 “alligator” attack helicopter dated 10 August, six T-80BVM Obr. 2022 tanks dated 6, 8 (captured), 9 and 10 August, two KamAZ 6×6 tractor unit dated 6 August, GAZ “Tigr-M’ dated 8 August, two BTR-82A(M) dated 14 and 21 August, two Ural-4320 dated 7 and 16 August, two BMP-3 dated 13 August, and one unknown vehicle date 5 September 2024.
  8. Note that two T-80s are designated to be from the 4th Tank Division (First Guards Tank Army) and one is designated as taken out by the 80th Air Assault Brigade.  

This is a total of 53 wrecks (including eight pontoon links) and includes eight tanks, eight IFVs, and one APC.

Warspotting does not record Ukrainian losses.

Now Naalsio (@naalsio26) is also tracking losses for both sides during this operation. They are reporting on Twitter:

                                     Russian losses                        Ukrainian losses
6-13 August               22 (4 tanks)                              29 (4 tanks, 8 IFVs)
As of 15 August         +5 (+2 tanks, +3 IFVs)       +22 (+4 IFVs)
As of 20 August        +13 (+5 tanks, +2 IFVs)     +14 (+4 IFVs)
As of 27 August        +19 (+3 tanks, +3 IFVs)     +22 (+5 tanks, + 7 IFVs)
As of 3 September  +12 (+1 tank)                          +19 (+2 tanks, + 6 IFVs)
As of 9 September  +12 (+1 IFV)                            +17 (+6 IFVs)
Total losses:            83 (15 tanks, 9 IFVs)       123 (11 tanks, 35 IFVs)

There is a discrepancy in Russian losses between Warspotting with 53 items destroyed/captured including 8 tanks, 8 IFVs and Naalsio with 83 items destroyed/captured including 15 tanks, 9 IFVs.

 

See: (1) Naalsio on X: “#Kursk Offensive confirmed equipment losses as of 13 August 2024 In summary: 29 Ukrainian 🇺🇦 losses vs. 22 Russian 🇷🇺 losses This list includes all losses in Kursk Oblast, Russia and Sumy Oblast, Ukraine since the offensive began on 06 August 2024. Spreadsheet showing the https://t.co/Uc2NOpLMoZ” / X

Second Battle of Kursk – part two

The original Battle of Kursk (4 July – 23 August 1943) was actually the single largest battle in World War II. This one is a lot smaller.

One will note that this map (from the book Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka) does include Sudzha, just to the northeast of Sumy.

Now I have blogged about this second Battle of Kursk before on 15 August: The Second Battle of Kursk – The Dupuy Institute. My concluding remarks were: “Anyhow, this was a clever move by Ukraine…Its impact has probably been overrated by many commentators.”

So, over the last three weeks, the Ukrainian control in and around Kursk has expanded slightly, from about 1,000 square kilometers (about the size of Fairfax County) to around 1,300 square kilometers. It is clear that Ukraine has taken all it can or wants to, and it now settled into a holding operation.

Around 28 August, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Ukraine had 5,000 troops inside of Kursk oblast. This sounds about right. I gather the offensive was initially conducted on 6 August by two brigades, the 22nd Mechanized Brigade and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, with the 80th Air Assault Brigade added early on to the mix by 10 August (when they reported capturing a T-80 at Sudzha). Now Wikipedia lists nine Ukrainian maneuver brigades in their order of battle, but I really don’t buy into that. If they had two-three reinforced brigades involved and partly or mostly committed, then one would end up with 5,000 or so troops deployed forward. It does seem to line up. I don’t know why they would need to or want to commit more.

Russia has not pulled any troops from its rather slow advance on Pokrovsk. they may have pulled some from around Kharkiv.  Russian has at least 557,000 ground troops (see previous blog post for details) with at least 450,000 of them deployed in Ukraine. That gave them 102,000 or so troops in the rear, they could shift to contain and battle up the Ukrainian Kursk oblast penetration. This should be enough, even though their quality is suspect (I assume more of the troops in the rear are still training up). Around 5 September, Zelenskyy (President of Ukraine) claimed that Russian had moved 60,000 soldiers into the Kursk region. I suspect this figure is high, although it is possible. 

The only real surprise so far in the lack of urgency on the part of Russia in reducing this penetration. They have clearly moved troops in the area, containing the breached area, but so far have not done any major attacks to reduce the penetration. Perhaps this is because they are using only partly trained rear elements and recent conscripts, and really don’t want to conduct failed attacks and run up the losses.  

So, not much has changed around Kursk and things have only changed slowly around Pokrovsk. I will go into that in a later blog post. 

Got a couple of more blog posts coming out this week on the subject.

 

September’s Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8 – 10 October 2024

The Third HAAC is coming in six weeks and we are still getting more presentations. Now up to 45 (and 2 group discussions). Setting up a third conference room on Wednesday to handle the overflow. So will have a separate conference room on Tuesday for mostly Naval Warfare Analysis and a new third separate conference room on Wednesday for mostly Air Warfare Analysis.  Have revised the schedule to end the day at 1700 except for Tuesday. 

The current schedule is:

Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center
Revised 26 September 2024

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930 Introductory remarks – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030 Studying Combat: The “Base of Sand” Problem – Dr. Shawn R. Woodford

1030 – 1130 Slouching Towards Wabash: The Withering of Historical Analysis in the American Profession of Arms – Ivan Torres (Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1130 – 1230 Redux: Quantifying Warfare – Alexandru Filip (Canadian Center for Strategic Studies)

1230 – 1400 Lunch

1400 – 1500 Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII – Sasho Todorov, esquire

1500 – 1600 Validation Challenges in Wargaming: What’s Real Here? – Dr. Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)

1600 – 1700 New Findings on Artillery Suppression – Dr. Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes) – virtual

1700 – 1800 Gun, Baby, Gun – Dr. Iain Overton (AOAV) – virtual

Evening (1900): Group Dinner – Rangos

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Moscow vs Kiev: Institutional Autism in the German High Command – Dr. Robert Kirchubel (LtC, US Army, ret)

1000 – 1100    Close Combat Overmatch Weapons (SLAMMER) – Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1100 – 1200 Native American Wars and Conflicts, 1500-1900 – Dr. David Cuberes – virtual

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400   Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1400 – 1500   The Gaza Death Numbers – Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University) – virtual

1500 – 1600  The Islamic State of Khorasan: The Evolution of Terrorism – Dr. Christopher Davis

1600 – 1700   Group Discussion: The Next Middle East Wars

Evening (1900): Group Dinner – BJs

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000   Musicians of Mars – Michael McCarthy

1000 – 1100 Summoning the specter of “Beweglichkeit”: A critical analysis of the U.S. Army’s new FM 3-0 Operations and observed Ukrainian battlefield trends – Ivan Torres (Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1100 – 1200 Ground Warfare in 2050: How it Looked in 2017 – Dr. Alexander Kott

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400 The Red Army’s Offensive Operations in Ukraine, 1943-44 – Dr. Richard Harrison

1400 – 1500 Critique of Western Wargames of NATO-WP Conflict – Walker Gargagliano

1500 – 1600 Capabilities of FPV drones in Ukraine: Revolution or Continuation of Historical Quantitative Trend? – Dr. Alexander Kott

1600 – 1700 Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War

Evening: Happy hour – Rangos

Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

Day 1: Naval Warfare Analysis

0930 – 1030 A Naval Power Index: The U.S. Navy vs three challengers – Imperial Japan, USSR and PRC China – Geoffrey Clark

1030 – 1130 U-boats in the Atlantic: The Unseen and Unheard – Dr. John Magill – virtual

1130 – 1230 Beaches by the Numbers – Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill (Concordia University, Quebec) – virtual

1230-1400   Lunch

1400 – 1500 Surveying and Quantifying Naval Warfare – Alexandru Filip

1500 – 1600 Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII (part 2 or overflow presentation) – Sasho Todorov, esquire

1600 – 1700   A Modest Proviso – National Guard Bureau Chief George Leach and his Role as Catalyst in Motorizing Artillery – Dr. Johannes Allert (Swansea University, Wales)

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 1000   Designing Computer Based AI Wargaming Systems for Simulating and Investigating Historical Battles – Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies, Australia) – virtual

1000 – 1100   Theory of Victory: The Ideas, Doctrine and Education of the U.S. Army from 1814-1941 – Dr. Michael Bonura (CGSC) – virtual

1100 – 1200   Winfield Scott: Architect of American Joint Warfare – LtC. Nathan A. Jennings (CGSC) – virtual

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400   Haiti: The Risks of a Failed State in the Western Hemisphere – Dr. Christopher Davis

1400 – 1500   Urban Warfare (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1500 – 1600    Making Military Decisions in Plateau Eras – Michael Benhamou (Director, OPEWI) – virtual

1600 – 1700   Salvation only in arms: A critical historical analysis of operational maneuver during the 1814 campaign in France – Ivan Torres (Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

Day 2: Air Warfare Analysis

0900 – 1000   Mass Egress after an IED Explosion: Lessons Learned about Validation – Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)

1000 – 1100  Dogfight: Were US pilots in Korea really better than those in Vietnam? – Chip Sayers

1100 – 1200 The WW2 USAAF Strategic Bombing Campaign: Strategy and Operational Imperatives – Dr. Sorin Adam Matei & Dr. Robert Kirchubel (Purdue University) 

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400   VPAF Aces: As good as they claimed? – Chip Sayers

1400 – 1500 Data for Air Combat Modeling in Network Centric Warfare – Geoffrey Clark

1500 – 1600   Open

1600 – 1700   Open

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    Urban Warfare: Myths and Reality – Dr. James Storr (UK) – virtual

1000 – 1100 The Red Army’s Plans for a Preemptive Attack in 1941 – Dr. Richard Harrison

1100 – 1200 Analyzing Barbarossa: By the Numbers – Dr. Robert Kirchubel & Sorin Adam Matei (Purdue)

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400   The Debate over French Armored Warfare Doctrine 1935 to 1940 – Dr. James Slaughter

1400 – 1500 Future of Maneuver Warfare – Dr. Amos Fox (Arizona State University) – virtual

1500 – 1600 Chernobyl compromised: The story of a Russian cyber attack – Joseph Weiss (Applied Control Solutions, LLC) – virtual

1600 – 1700 Political Science Pedagogy in Strategic Studies (A Contrast in Quantified History) – Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill – virtual

 

Floating unscheduled presentation: Force Ratios – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

Friday, October 11: Tour of a Civil War Battlefield – Antietam: bloodiest day of the U.S. Civil War (and in the Western Hemisphere?). – we will arrange transport there and back ($20 charge for tour).

See this link below for costs ($150), address, conference description, hotels, and call for presentations: Announcements for the Third HAAC, 8-10 October – The Dupuy Institute

Announcements for the Third HAAC, 8-10 October

The Third HAAC is occurring on 8 – 10 October in Tysons Corner. There are currently 38 presentations planned and two group discussions.

The current schedule is here (updated 15 August): August’s Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8 – 10 October 2024 – The Dupuy Institute

and here: HAAC 2024: Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8-10 October 2024 – The Dupuy Institute

The conference is also posted on Eventbrite: Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 8, 2024 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite

They choose the picture, but it was kind of perfect for a Historical Analysis conference. You can pay for the conference through Eventbrite.

The cost of the conference is $150 for three days or $60 per day. It is a $60 discount if you present. There is a student discount of $20 a day for “real students.” There are now multiple ways to pay 1) though Paypal via SRichTDI@aol.com, 2) by calling (703) 289-0007 and paying by credit card, 3) our you can mail me a check (very retro), 4) or pay cash, 5) or pay through Eventbrite.

Cost is here: Cost of the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 -19 October 2023 – The Dupuy Institute

Hotels are here: Hotels for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 – The Dupuy Institute

Call for presentations is here: Call for Presentations for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 – The Dupuy Institute

Conference description is here: The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA – The Dupuy Institute

The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is basically across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit from 495 (the Beltway). It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road. It is in the building above the restaurant called Rangos. Parking is in the parking garage next door to it.

We do have virtual presentations and we do accept virtual attendees. Conference works better if lots of people attend in person. People will connect via Zoom. We will send out Zoom links to all virtual attendees just before the conference starts.

We are slowly posting up videos from the previous conferences, we are halfway through the 2022 conference. They are here: The Dupuy Institute – YouTube

If there are any questions you can email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com or call me at (703) 289-0007. Look forward to seeing you all there.

 

New 1420 Moscow street interviews are back on YouTube

Well, it looks like 1420 is back in action and posting on YouTube. It is a Moscow based site where the young adult (Daniil Orain) who ran it did street interviews in Moscow about current events. He later expanded the interview to other cities, towns and villages. It was interesting to hear the responses of the man-on-the-street and how their willingness to openly express opinions changed from 2022 through 2024. He finally quit doing interviews in early 2024 because he wanted to move on and then last month Russian shut down YouTube.

So now, as of this week, they are back to doing new interviews and posting them on YouTube. This latest one is on the Ukrainian operations in Kursk oblast:  People in Moscow about Ukraine’s invasion (youtube.com)

 

Previous postings I have done about 1420:

1420 – The Dupuy Institute

1420 – second posting – The Dupuy Institute

1420 – third posting – The Dupuy Institute

1420 – fourth posting – The Dupuy Institute

1420 – fifth posting – The Dupuy Institute

CBC on 1420 – The Dupuy Institute

1420 – sixth posting – The Dupuy Institute

It looks like 1420 may have quit broadcasting – The Dupuy Institute

The 1420 YouTube site decided to quit doing street interviews – The Dupuy Institute

 

 

Video presentations from the second day of the first HAAC

We had some issues with zoom and videos on the second day of the conference, so do not have videos of half the presentations that day. The schedule for that first conference is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 16 – The Dupuy Institute

The slides for the thirteen presentations given on the second day are here: Presentations from HAAC – Urban Warfare – The Dupuy Institute

The video on the “Statistical Analysis of Land Battles” is here, on our YouTube site:  Statistical Analysis of Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning? by Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS) (youtube.com)